Cade Horton has had his elbow surgery, and although the particulars of the procedure weren’t going to be known until the surgeon actually got in there and determined the best course of action, my feeling was that we shouldn’t be expecting a return short of mid-2027 in any case.
Seems that was an appropriate guard of the heart:
#Cubs Cade Horton had surgery yesterday and needed the full Tommy John. 15-16 month recovery.
— Taylor McGregor (@Taylor_McGregor) April 17, 2026Craig Counsell announced that Cade Horton had UCL revision surgery and the internal brace and will be on a 15-16 month recovery timeline.
— Andy Martínez (@amartinez_11) April 17, 2026The UCL revision component there is, effectively, a full-on second Tommy John surgery. As I understand it, adding the internal brace can help the success and durability of the new elbow setup after the return, but this is not a situation where we’re looking at a less-invasive procedure and shortened timeline. This was the whole deal, and we just have to hope for a full and successful return to effectiveness for a very talented young pitcher.
You can do the quick math on that return timeline, and we’re talking about Cade Horton not seeing competitive action until roughly July or August of 2027.
If you want to be overly rosy about it, you say to yourself that – like Justin Steele this year – the most important thing might be the second-half/postseason innings Horton might contribute next year anyway, and he might’ve been limited on innings anyway. So getting him for the final two or three months of the season could wind up really useful, and, even if it’d been just an internal brace, Horton might not have been able to pitch much more than that in 2027 regardless.
If you are less rosy, you feel the sting of losing Horton for all of the 2026 regular season, all of the 2026 postseason, a majority of the 2027 regular season, and then you have a guy coming back from major elbow surgery to try to contribute when you need him at his sharpest (and sometimes guys aren’t at their sharpest until the year after). And also, if there are any delays or setbacks in the rehab process, it could be all of 2027 that he’s out.
I fall somewhere in the middle there. I worry about what happens next year, but I also don’t want to get too hung up on that right now – because it’s roughly as likely to be the nightmare worst case scenario as it is to be the hey-that’s-really-well-timed-and-helpful scenario. No way to know it now.
All the best to Cade Horton in the lengthy recovery and rehab process. This sucks. No two ways about it. It sucks for the Cubs, and it REALLY sucks for Horton, who was possibly going to emerge as a true ace this year.
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