Since Donald Trump returned to the White House his Vice President, JD Vance, has been viewed as the most likely successor to the Maga throne.
Yet Vance has veered in and out of favour with the changeable President. Having been elected to the Senate only in 2022, Vance, 41, is still relatively politically inexperienced. He is also a somewhat recent convert to the Trump cause, having spoken out against him as “reprehensible” back in 2016.
Furthermore, Vance’s well-known opposition to Trump’s Iran war has thrown into doubt his future as the new face of Maga, with the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, increasingly being suggested as a possible successor.
Following the failed talks at the weekend with Iran, which the Vice President presided over, his approval ratings tanked, hitting the lowest of any vice president at this stage of office
But even as he tries to contend with what looks like an attempt to sideline him, Vance is making it clear that he is still in the running to succeed an increasingly unpopular president.
Vance’s golden opportunity….. lost
Vance had a golden opportunity to present himself as a key force in bringing the Iran war to a close this past weekend, when he headed the US delegation negotiating for peace in talks in Pakistan with with Iran.
Some saw it as a win-win situation, in which if Vance managed to secure peace, he would reap all the benefits of “winning” a war that Trump has been unable to secure, while if he failed, it would enable Trump to escalate the war, pinning the blame on the Iranians.
Vance with Pakistan’s military chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, left, and Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar after arriving for talks with Iranian officials in Islamabad last week (Photo: Jacquelyn Martin/AP)However, it turned out to be a poisoned chalice, with key issues such as Israel’s continued war in Lebanon, as well as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz being key sticking points on which Iran was unlikely to budge.
This setback increasingly looked like a premeditated effort by Trump to undermine his Vice President. Trump, discussing the Iran talks, at a private Easter brunch, said: “If it doesn’t happen, I’m blaming JD Vance… If it does happen, I’m taking full credit.”
Coupled with Viktor Orbán’s loss in the Hungarian elections after Vance flew to Hungary to rally support for him, it has turned out to be “a terrible week” for the Vice President, which could deal severe damage to his push to become the next President according to Mark Shanahan, associate professor of political engagement at the University of Surrey.
It could also push Vance out of favour with Trump as he “can’t stand losers,” added Shanahan.
Vance is the obvious successor – and he’s pitching with a book
Trump has previously said he would “love to” stay on for a third presidential term, a hugely controversial suggestion that would be likely to prompt a constitutional, political and even civil crisis. The Constitution bars president from serving more than two terms. Furthermore, other concerns among even Trump’s Republican Party and Maga base surrounding his age – 79 – and health, make it even less likely he could govern for a third term.
As Vice President, Vance is the obvious choice for a successor. He frequently brings up the future of the Republican Party, while also voicing his strict loyalty to Trump.
The Vice President recently sparked speculation that he was pushing for the top job with the announcement that he will publish a book: Communion: Finding My Way Back To Faith – in June.
“The story of how I regained my faith, of course, only happened because I had lost it to begin with. The interesting question that hangs over this book, and over my mind, is why I ever strayed from the path. Why the Christian faith of my youth failed to properly take root,” Vance wrote.
Given that a book release is regarded as a standard move for political figures to make before launching a campaign, the announcement ramped up speculation that he was paving the way for a 2028 presidential run.
Vance’s previous book, the memoir Hillbilly Elegy from 2016, helped make Vance a national figure.
Furthermore, the subject of the book could, cynically, take advantage of how Trump has been upsetting Christian voters in the US. Trump prompted outrage among by criticising the Pope. Vance’s own often-discussed Catholicism could help him secure those voters put off by Trump.
Trump has prompted outrage with his comments about Pope Leo (Photo: Alessandra Benedetti – Corbis/Corbis via Getty Images)Vance plays politics for power
In 2016 Vance was staunchly against Trump, calling him “reprehensible,” an “idiot” and even privately comparing him to Adolf Hitler.
Then throughout Trump’s first presidency and in the run-up to his election to the Senate in 2022, Vance became more supportive of the President, claiming he realised that his opposition to Trump was rooted in style rather than substance.
This culminated in him securing Trump’s endorsement for his election to the Senate through demonstrations of loyalty, including downplaying the truth of what happened during 6 January US Capitol attack.
More recently, Vance has had to walk a careful line after Trump launched his war against Iran alongside Israel.
The Vice President previously criticised US involvement in “endless wars” in the Middle East. However, he has remained conspicuously tight-lipped about his true opinions on the Iran war, allowing him some distance from the President’s foreign adventurism to affirm his isolationist stance, which could play well with anti-war Maga voters.
A revealing New York Times article citing extensive interviews with those aware of internal administration discussions revealed details of a Situation Room meeting during which Trump decided to go to war. That article made a point of singling out Vance, who was then on a foreign trip, as the figure in Trump’s White House most opposed to a full-scale war, and as the only one not to defer to the President’s wish to go to war.
Making inroads with Maga
Vance has used his time in office to strengthen his ties to key Maga figures, ingratiating himself with the American right-wing media and forming ties with the economic power players behind the Republican Party.
He frequently engages with right-wing networks such as Fox News and Newsmax but arguably wields more influence through his relationship to the backers of the Republican Party.
Vance attended a rally for the Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán last week, shortly before he lost the election by a landslide (Photo: Jonathan Ernst/AFP)Vance co-founded the Rockbridge Network – a Silicon Valley-backed donor organisation – in 2019. Rockbridge has become one of the most influential donor organisations in the Republican Party and is explicitly focused on the post-Trump Maga movement, with Vance a key part of this.
Prior to Rockbridge, Vance also cultivated a relationship with the tech billionaire Peter Thiel. Thiel, who co-founded CIA-backed analytics firm Palantir among other companies and has an estimated net worth of between $22.1 (£16.3) – $28.3bn (£20.9bn), first became associated with Vance in 2011 and was a key backer in his 2022 election to the senate, donating $15m (£11m) to his campaign.
However, while Vance commands significant sway in the Maga movement, David Andersen, associate professor of US politics at Durham University told The i Paper that the Vice President’s political power is very explicitly tied to Maga and therefore Trump, meaning he “is stuck as the heir-apparent on a sinking ship.”
“[Vance] is also caught in the current President’s footsteps with no ability to campaign against unpopular decisions and statements, and no avenue to distinguish himself,” Andersen added.
“It is very difficult to see how, given this environment, he emerges as someone that the country views as a potential strong leader. Even within Maga, it currently looks like he is destined to be seen more as a lackey, or support staff, than a leader.”
Bravado on the world stage
Despite Vance’s relative lack of political experience, he has established himself as a key player on the global stage.
Recently, he has backed Trump in his spat with the Pope, after the Pontiff criticised Trump’s war in Iran, and the President posted an AI-generated picture of himself as Jesus.
Trump angered the traditionally loyal Christian right with a now-deleted post of himself as Jesus (Photo: Donald Trump/Truth Social)He warned the head of the Catholic Church: “I think it’s very, very important for the Pope to be careful when he talks about matters of theology,” but also played down the political disagreement.
“I have a lot of respect for the Pope. I like him. I admire him. I’ve gotten to know him a little bit,” Vance said. “It doesn’t bother me when he speaks on issues of the day — frankly, even when I disagree with how he’s applying a particular principle.”
The Vice President has also spent the past year establishing himself as an attack dog for his master, putting himself on the map during the infamous Oval Office encounter last February with the Ukrainian President, when called Volodomyr Zelensky disrespectful and told him he should be thanking Trump.
Popular with non-Republicans
House Democrats have proposed the creation of a commission led by Vance to remove Trump from office.
While it is highly unlikely that Vance, a supporter of Trump who knows well the adulation the President’s still commands within his Maga base, would attempt such a move, suggests that he may have support from more moderate public figures as an alternative to Trump.
The measure calls on the implementation of the 25th Amendment if it is determined that Trump is unable to serve. Calls for his to be removed from office have grown even among his supporters following a series of statements, including his warning that Iran’s “whole civilisation will die” if it did not capitulate to his demands.
Democratic lawmakers including former CIA director John Brennan have singled out Vance as the figure that could lead the way to Trump’s removal.
However, experts point out that Vance securing himself as the successor is a lot easier said than done considering his boss is as changeable as Trump.
Shanahan said Vance would have to remain “in lockstep with [Trump] until the President considers his agenda fulfilled and the 2028 election campaign finally takes first order of priority”.
“He’ll have to establish his own positions and put clear water between him and the Trump administration which will be doubly hard for Vance with a President both as capricious and thin-skinned as Trump. For now, he has to stay loyal, keep smiling and follow the Trump agenda even if it’s hurting his presidential chances on a daily basis,” he added.
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