The first full day of Donald Trump’s naval counter-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz saw a further reduction in shipping through the strategic waterway with a China-bound tanker turned back, in a dramatic move that risks sparking further escalation.
The US military introduced a blockade on “all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports” on Monday, with at least 15 warships and 10,000 troops said to be involved in the effort.
Trump announced the measure in response to Tehran’s own weeks-long, selective closure of the Strait, which has required ships from “friendly” countries to pay a toll for passage. Both Iran and the US have accused each other of violating a two-week ceasefire through their actions around Hormuz.
Maritime traffic slowed to a crawl following the US blockade. Just three commercial vessels crossed the Strait on Tuesday, according to global trade analytics firm Kpler, down from six on Monday, when the blockade was introduced.
The three ships that crossed on Tuesday included a US-sanctioned oil tanker considered to be part of Iran’s so-called shadow fleet, which stopped shortly after passing the Strait. The Malawi-flagged Rich Starry, which was bound for China was anchored in the Gulf of Oman as of Tuesday evening.
The Comoros-flagged Elpis, is also anchored in the Gulf of Oman after crossing the strait yesterday.
The sanctioned tanker Rich Starry in the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday eveningMartin Kelly, of the EOS Marine risk consultancy, said Rich Starry had “abruptly changed course…likely to avoid interdiction”.
US Central Command said on Tuesday: “During the first 24 hours, no ships made it past the US blockade and six merchant vessels complied with direction from US forces to turn around to re-enter an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman.”
US returns to familiar playbook
The move to blockade Iranian shipping marks a return to a familiar tactic for Trump and the US, after imposing naval sieges on Venezuela and Cuba.
Professor Alessio Patalano, a naval warfare specialist at the War Studies Department of King’s College London, said the US “has proven time and again, and certainly with the Venezuela operations, that it possesses the capability to conduct a distant blockade and do so with reasonable effectiveness.”
The US military can call upon land, sea, and air-based assets to gather intelligence on potential target ships, and use a combination of “helicopters and boarding parties through RIBs (rigid inflatable boats) to inspect and detain if necessary,” he said,
What US forces would do with impounded vessels and their crew is unclear, said Patalano, but options could include escorting them to the US-UK base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, or keeping them at sea.
US officials told the Wall Street Journal that impounded ships could be taken to a “holding area” in the Arabian Sea or Indian Ocean.
While the blockade scheme was announced suddenly by Trump, it is likely a product of contingency planning for different scenarios around a conflict with Iran that date back to before Trump’s presidency, he said.
Nick Childs, Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank, said the US operation would focus on ships exiting the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman and northern Arabian Sea.
“It doesn’t look as if they are going to be sailing ships up and down the Gulf looking for these vessels,” he said, which would avoid the need to come too close to Iranian territory.
A vessel at the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman (Photo: Reuters)Fragile ceasefire at risk
While the US has at least 15 warships involved in the operations, according to officials, US resources could be tested if Iran seeks to breach the blockade.
The American force could be required to “chase down suspect ships”, said Childs, and operations to divert, capture, and impound vessels could also be resource-intensive. So far, no other countries have committed to join the effort as Trump suggested.
The operation could also bring an end to the fragile ceasefire with Iran. A naval blockade is an act of war under international law, and Tehran’s could fire on US warships seeking to block its exports.
The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier was located by satellites within 120 miles of Iran’s south coast on Monday, well within the range of anti-ship missiles and drones.
This could be a sign of US confidence in the impact of its attacks on Iran’s naval capabilities over 40 days of fighting. But such attacks are likely to have inflicted heavy damage without eliminating the threat posed by even a reduced Iranian navy, said Patalano, which could still call on land and sea drones, anti-ship missiles, and weapons fired from small boats.
“The Iranians have imagined this kind of fight for many years,” he said. “I would be highly surprised if they did not have any aces up their sleeves.”
US interdictions at sea also run the risk of sparking a clash with China, a leading buyer of Iranian oil.
Patalano suggests some of the vague wording around the US mission would allow “discretion” to avoid a potentially dangerous escalation.
Chinese shipping also “tends not to have armed guards on board for the legal implications”, he added.
Childs said the two powers need close communication to manage the risks.
“I think the big question is, what will happen if a ship with Chinese connections comes under the spotlight. What will the Americans do and how will China respond?” he said. “It’s very difficult to say, but I imagine there is an awful lot of back channel communication.”
Fighter jets on the flight deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier (Photo: US Navy/Reuters)A ‘double blockade’ of Hormuz
While the US move is already disrupting Iranian shipping, prospects for reopening the Strait and reviving the flow of oil and gas may be growing even more distant.
Ana Subasic, a trade risk analyst at Kpler, said the blockade “is not yet driving any meaningful normalisation in traffic, with uncertainty around enforcement, counterparty exposure, insurance, and operational risk continues to weigh heavily on transit decisions.”
Childs warned that if Iran does not fold to US demands, Trump’s decision could worsen the economic disruption.
“If the legitimate non-Iranian shipping is not getting through, and the shipping that the Iranians say is fine if you pay a toll to get through is stopping, then, obviously that gums up the Gulf completely,” he said. “You have a double blockade.”
Patalano said that US intervention could mean “we are going to have to deal with disruptions for a longer period of time.”
But he added that the so-called grain corridor, a multinational effort established to allow Ukraine to ship commodities through the Black Sea without Russian interference, as an example of how a wide-scale international response “plus engagement with insurers and ship owners” could ultimately allow a form of normal trade to continue in a warzone.
Hence then, the article about images show trump s blockade is working but it s about to backfire was published today ( ) and is available on inews ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Images show Trump’s blockade is working – but it’s about to backfire )
Also on site :
- 90 Years Later, the World's Most Famous Photo Exposes the Dark Side of Viral Fame: 'I Wish She Hadn't Taken My Picture'
- ‘We have to be able to walk and chew gum’ on government spending, says budget chairman on debt crisis and national security
- Businessman sues British Airways for £50k claiming cut finger caused ‘nightmares and flashbacks’