Candidates from Carney’s Liberal Party won with large majorities, as expected, in two Toronto districts, known as “ridings,” vacated by Trudeau ministers. They also squeaked by in a hard-fought campaign in the suburban Montreal community of Terrebonne, where 25-year-old Haitian-born Tatiana Auguste won the normally separatist riding for the second time, after having a one-vote 2025 victory overturned in the Supreme Court.
The result reflected voters' confidence in a leader whose ascension looked unlikely in 2025. Thanks to the unpopularity of U.S. President Donald Trump and a swell of support at the Canadian polls, Carney seems to be headed from triumph to triumph, demonstrating the same assurance as a politician that he showed as a banker.
Enter Donald Trump. The U.S. president threatened to use economic force to make Canada the 51st state, and Carney was able to harness the nationalistic reaction to Trump’s braggadocio, promising to keep his elbows up — an expression borrowed from legendary hockey player Gordie Howe, who was famous for leaving opposing players crumpled in the corners.
On election night a year ago, Carney won a mandate but fell three seats short of a majority government in the 343-seat House of Commons, which meant opposition MPs could slow down legislation, tie up the government in committee, and theoretically, force an election at will.
Prime Minister Carney now enjoys a three-seat margin in the House of Commons, so he no longer has to worry about opposition politicians forcing an election—not that they look inclined to do so. Since becoming prime minister, he has steadily become more popular. And his popularity has been consistently reflected in the polls.
For baby boomers and members of the silent generation, Carney is often considered a national savior. Legendary folk singer Joni Mitchell called Carney a “blessing” last month while receiving a Juno lifetime achievement award. To Canadians of her era, Carney looks uniquely well-suited to run the country and manage Trump, whose tariffs have cost tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs.
The standing ovation he received helped convince Canadians that Carney knows what he is doing, which has reduced the polarization that intensified as Trudeau and Poilievre squared off.
Carney’s path
By the time Trudeau was forced out of office, the oil-producing Prairie provinces were so miserable with his climate policies that a separatist movement sprang up in Alberta. And in the aftermath of COVID, Trudeau had also allowed massive numbers of temporary foreign workers and foreign students to arrive, stretching to the breaking point the longstanding Canadian consensus over the desirability of immigration.
He is borrowing heavily—which Canada can afford, at least for a while—and promising to build “Canada strong,” with nation-building infrastructure projects: ports, roads, and a $90-billion high-speed rail network from Quebec City to Toronto.
That new military spending will include a new fleet of submarines—from either South Korea or Germany—and may include Swedish fighter jets, rather than American F-35s, part of an effort to disentangle Canada from tight security co-operation with the Americans.
Carney briefly name-checked Trudeau in his speech, but the former prime minister was a no-show at the convention. He did make two video appearances: a brief greeting he sent to welcome convention goers to Montreal, and a video posted online by his girlfriend, pop star Katy Perry, of the two of them enjoying the Coachella Festival in California.
Some left-leaning Liberals worry he is making the tent too big by inviting in so many Tory floor crossers, but it is hard to find a Canadian who thinks anybody else is better equipped to handle the moment. The Liberal Party of Canada has a long history of centrist brokerage politics, shifting left and right with the political winds, paying careful attention to regional coalition politics and rallying around the Maple Leaf when necessary. Carney’s first year as Prime Minister perfectly encapsulates this legacy.
So long as the United States looks like an unreliable economic and security partner, Carney’s formula for political success is as stable as could be.
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