Arsenal are reeling after a bruising weekend in the Premier League. But are things quite as desperate as they seem? We analyse five reasons for them to be positive in the title race.
As far as weekends go, this was a nightmarish one for Arsenal.
Arsenal lost 2-1 at home to Bournemouth on Saturday with a flat, disjointed performance, and matters deteriorated further the following day when title rivals Manchester City won convincingly at Chelsea.
What looked like, on paper, a matchday where Arsenal could have extended their lead at the top with a winnable home game before a potential stumbling block for City, instead turned into one of rising panic.
Arsenal’s lead at the Premier League summit has narrowed from nine points to six, and City still have a game in hand.
Before that game in hand is played, the two sides meet at the Etihad Stadium next weekend in a game that could define the title race.
Ahead of that match, the narrative pretty much writes itself: City win that game, then win their game in hand, and the title is surely theirs given how strong they often are at the end of the season.
In some quarters, that scenario is almost being talked about as an inevitability, as though Arsenal have already let things slip.
That assumption does not exist without fair reason. Arsenal have lost three of their last four matches, getting eliminated from both domestic cup competitions in the process. The manner of those defeats, particularly against City in the EFL Cup final and Bournemouth most recently, raises legitimate concerns over whether Mikel Arteta’s side can handle the weight of expectation.
But the title race is not over. Far from it, in fact. There are still several compelling reasons for Arsenal supporters to remain optimistic. Let’s analyse a few:
It is Extremely Difficult to Win Seven Games in a Row
“If Manchester City win all their remaining games, they win the league.”
How many times has that phrase been uttered in the last 24 hours? It’s not technically true – as if Arsenal lost at City but win their remaining five games, the two sides will finish level on points, so goal difference will decide the title race, though it’s hard to envisage a scenario where City don’t claim the title if they win out from here.
What is less frequently acknowledged in that phrase is how difficult a task that actually is, even for a Pep Guardiola side. The assumption that City will simply win all their games is borne out of what they’ve done in the past, but it does overlook recent evidence.
Across the last two seasons, City’s longest winning run in the league stands at six matches, chalked up between November and December last year. Outside of that, their longest winning streak stands at four, which they’ve only achieved twice.
This is not quite the relentless, metronomic City of previous campaigns. They remain formidable, capable of the heights perhaps even Arsenal are not. But they are not infallible. Blindly assuming they’re going to have a perfect run-in is premature.
Arsenal’s Record in Big Games Remains Strong
Much will hinge on next weekend’s meeting at the Etihad, but Arsenal need to view that game as an opportunity rather than a threat. A win there would all but seal the title.
Arsenal’s recent league meetings against City have been encouraging. They are unbeaten in their last five against them in the Premier League (W2 D3), having lost 12 in a row prior to that run. While their EFL Cup final defeat was alarming, it wasn’t as if they were completely blown away. City played well, but Arsenal were a long way off their best.
What’s more, Arsenal’s broader record in high-profile fixtures under Mikel Arteta is impressive.
Across the last three and a half seasons, if you look at fixtures between sides currently in the top six, Arsenal have lost fewer matches than any of their rivals (8 of 39) and accumulated more points than anyone else:
If there is a pattern, it’s that Arsenal have tended to stumble in fixtures they are expected to win, rather than against their direct rivals.
The Run-in Still Favours Arsenal on Paper
A home game against Bournemouth looked favourable on paper, so predicting future fixtures should always be treated with caution. That’s what happens in sport. And as we’ve just said, Arsenal have had a tendency to drop silly points in the past.
That said, a broader view of each side’s run-in does still favour Arsenal. Using the Opta Power Rankings to assess opponent strength, their remaining fixtures carry an average opponent rating of 90.4, compared to 92.0 for City.
Relative to the rest of the league, Arsenal have the fourth-easiest run-in. Avoiding defeat at the Etihad could be enough to keep control, particularly with three of their remaining matches at home.
The Underlying Numbers Remain Strong
A lot has been made of Arsenal’s lack of creativity from open play, and those criticisms are valid. Against Bournemouth, they generated just 0.19 expected goals from open play, their lowest total in a Premier League home match since recording 0.17 against Crystal Palace in October 2025.
However, their overall expected goals total against Bournemouth was 2.32, with 2.13 of that coming from set-pieces.
Their penalty (0.79) inflates that figure to some extent, but the ability to consistently create high-quality chances from dead-ball situations remains a real strength. The balance between their chance creation in open play and set-plays is stark and far from ideal, but chances from set-pieces do still count.
More broadly, Arsenal’s underlying numbers remain really strong. They still have the best defence in the country. Stripping the numbers down to 2026 alone, they are the only Premier League side conceding fewer than one expected goal per game (0.76).
Even during this recent dip, they’ve not been conceding many high-quality chances. That Bournemouth’s 1.19 xG was the sixth-most Arsenal have conceded in a game all season speaks to that.
At the other end, they continue to generate enough opportunities to win matches more often than not. They have ‘won’ the expected goals battle in 11 of their 13 league games this year. Those numbers should carry them over the line.
The Opta Supercomputer Still Backs Them
Fair enough, “because our model says so” is not the most reassuring response to this crisis. But looking at the Opta supercomputer can provide some useful, rational context.
According to the model’s 10,000 simulations, Arsenal still win the title in 87.0% of them. They also remain favourites with the bookmakers.
Strip away the emotion of the past weekend and there is still a far greater chance than not that Arsenal will get over the line.
After this weekend, the momentum is entirely with Manchester City. Everyone is waiting and expecting the inevitable Arsenal collapse. Arteta’s side need to respond quickly. But the fundamentals of their title challenge remain strong.
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Perspective, Not Panic: Five Reasons for Arsenal to Remain Optimistic in Title Race Opta Analyst.
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