On Friday, top representatives from Washington and Tehran are set to sit down in Islamabad’s lush, tree-lined environs to negotiate a permanent end to the Iran War, which has cost at least 3,800 lives across ten nations while cascading economic hardships across the planet.
The proposed talks between U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Iran’s Parliament Speaker and a former Revolutionary Guards commander, would be the highest-level meeting between these adversaries since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. (Vance is expected to be accompanied by U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump’s influential son-in-law Jared Kushner.)
Certainly, Pakistan was especially well-placed to act as a mediator given its unique network across rival blocs. Other than good relations with practically all the Middle East, Islamabad maintains close diplomatic and military ties with the U.S., most recently helping to evacuate American personnel following the chaotic drawdown from Afghanistan in 2021.
Of course, Pakistan's mediation makes sense given it is highly exposed to spillover from the war. Its economy remains fragile, with falling incomes and sharply rising inflation, making relief from the extra shock of high energy prices especially urgent. In addition, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defense pact in September that risks drawing Islamabad into a full-blown conflict against its western neighbor.
But it’s not just about damage control. A U.S. resolution with Tehran that involves sanctions relief could bring major economic benefits for Pakistan, especially via energy projects like a planned pipeline to Iranian gas fields. And given that some 5 million Pakistani migrant workers currently toil in the Gulf, securing peace both safeguards them as well as some of the vital $38.3 billion sent home in remittances each year. In addition, the government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif could leverage any success on the international stage to push back at India's attempts to diplomatically isolate and sideline Islamabad, while also soothing internal political tensions, especially regarding jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan.
That is not least because Trump has found a new bosom buddy in Munir, who enjoyed a rare one-on-one lunch while hosted at the White House in June, and was described as “my favorite field marshal” by the U.S. commander-in-chief during the Gaza ceasefire summit in October. In addition to strong ties to the mercurial U.S. President, Axios reports that Munir has developed a “rapport” with Vance, while he is also close to China, traveling to Beijing in July and receiving Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Islamabad the following month. “Munir is clearly the key guy,” says Cameron Munter, the U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan from 2010-12.
Since Pakistan does not have diplomatic relations with Israel, “there are also limits on its mediation efforts,” says Chietigj Bajpaee, a senior research fellow for South Asia at Chatham House. "So it has a somewhat awkward position in the Middle East."
“It's going to be very public. It's going to be probably very belligerent, and both sides are going to be making very large claims that make coming to a real, workable, long-term deal very hard,” says Munter. “The Iranians may be very satisfied to string this out for a very long time. The longer the world economy suffers, or is at least uncertain about the outcome, the more it plays into their hands. Whereas Trump would likely want an immediate deal.”
—With reporting by Callum Sutherland/London
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