With home losses in three of the four UEFA Champions League quarter-final first legs this week, what are the chances of turnarounds in the second legs? We look at how often teams have recovered in the past.
The good thing about two-legged ties is that teams get a second chance, and it is technically never over after the first game.
However, Real Madrid, Sporting CP and Barcelona all left themselves with a lot of work to do after suffering home defeats to Bayern Munich, Arsenal and Atlético Madrid, respectively, in the first legs of their UEFA Champions League quarter-finals this week.
Paris Saint-Germain were the only home team to win, easing to a 2-0 victory over Liverpool, but despite their wobbly form, Arne Slot’s Reds still have the power of Anfield to give them hope of a turnaround next week.
Madrid, Sporting and Barça will need to recover their deficits on enemy territory, which while not impossible, does make things trickier in theory.
But how tricky exactly? Well, we’ve looked back over Champions League history (since 1992-93) to see how often teams who lost the first leg of a knockout tie at home have gone on to advance.
Prior to this week, of the 115 Champions League knockout ties in which the hosts lost the first leg, only seven have managed to get through (6.1%).
And three of those seven occasions were due to the now-defunct away-goal rule.
To give fans of Real Madrid, Sporting and Barcelona hope, though, let’s run through those seven occasions to see just how it was achieved.
Ajax vs Panathinaikos (3-1 agg) – Semi-Finals: 1995-96First Leg: 0-1, Second Leg: 3-0
People of a certain vintage may have fond memories of mid-90s Ajax, who were the defending European champions in 1995-96. The Dutch giants played Panathinaikos in the semi-finals, but had work to do after the first leg.
The Greek side won 1-0 in Amsterdam thanks to a goal from Krzysztof Warzycha, only for Louis van Gaal’s men to earn a 3-0 victory in the return leg after a brace from Jari Litmanen and a late Nordin Wooter goal.
Ajax ultimately lost to Juventus on penalties in the final, though.
This was the only occurrence of a team losing the first leg of a knockout tie at home and still going through in the first 18 years of the Champions League.
Inter vs Bayern Munich (3-3 agg, Inter won on away goals) – Last 16: 2010-11First Leg: 0-1, Second Leg: 3-2
Inter were also defending European champions in 2010-11, and had it all to do after being beaten 1-0 in the first leg of their last-16 tie with Bayern Munich at San Siro following a 90th-minute winner from Mario Gómez.
However, a five-goal thriller in Germany led to Leonardo’s men advancing on away goals. Samuel Eto’o gave Inter an early lead, but things looked bleak when Gómez and Thomas Müller gave Bayern a 2-1 lead on the night before half-time.
Second-half goals from Wesley Sneijder and Goran Pandev sent Inter through, though they were subsequently dumped out in the quarter-finals by another Bundesliga side, with Schalke beating them 7-3 on aggregate.
Manchester United vs Paris Saint-Germain (4-4, Man Utd won on away goals) – Last 16: 2018-19First Leg: 0-2, Second Leg: 3-1
Few people saw this one coming, least of all PSG, when they won 2-0 at Old Trafford in the first leg thanks to goals from Presnel Kimpembe and Kylian Mbappé.
Romelu Lukaku scored for Manchester United in just the second minute in Paris, before Juan Bernat equalised soon after. Lukaku made it 2-1 after half an hour, but United had to wait until second-half stoppage time to win on away goals through a Marcus Rashford penalty.
This is the only time a team that have lost by more than one goal in the first leg at home have come back to advance, though it was only on away goals. United would have needed another goal or to win on penalties these days.
Like the two teams before them who had overturned a first-leg deficit in an away second leg, United didn’t make the most of it as they were beaten 4-0 on aggregate by Barcelona in the quarter-finals.
Ajax vs Real Madrid (5-3 agg) – Last 16: 2018-19First Leg: 1-2, Second Leg: 4-1
Despite the fact it had only happened twice in the 26 prior Champions League campaigns, two teams overcame a first-leg deficit in the last 16 in 2018-19 (and it happened again in the semis, which we’ll come to shortly). As well as Man Utd, Ajax also did it – the second time they had done so.
It was made all the more impressive that they did so against reigning champions Real Madrid, losing the first leg on home soil 2-1.
Erik ten Hag’s men were unbelievable in the second leg in the Bernabéu, though, with goals from Hakim Ziyech, David Neres, Dusan Tadic and Lasse Schöne giving them a 4-1 victory.
The Dutch side then made it past Juventus in the quarters, before…
Tottenham vs Ajax (3-3 agg, Tottenham won on away goals) – Semi-Finals: 2018-19First Leg: 0-1, Second Leg: 3-2
Ten Hag’s men looked unstoppable, and when they beat Tottenham in north London in the first leg 1-0 thanks to a Donny van de Beek goal, their journey to the final seemed to be a sure thing.
That was further cemented when they raced into a two-goal lead back home a week later through Matthijs De Ligt and Ziyech. Spurs were without the injured Harry Kane, so who could possibly score the goals they needed to recover?
Lucas Moura, it turned out. The Brazilian scored twice in quick succession around the hour mark, before a dramatic hat-trick goal in the 96th minute sent Spurs through on away goals.
Mauricio Pochettino’s men lost to Liverpool in the final, but their unlikely victory in Amsterdam will live long in the memory.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Barcelona (6-4 agg) – Quarter-Finals: 2023-24First Leg: 2-3, Second Leg: 4-1
This is not the most famous comeback involving PSG and Barcelona – that was when Barcelona sensationally won the second leg of their Champions League last-16 tie against PSG in 2016-17 by six goals to one after losing 4-0 in the first leg.
The Ligue 1 side got some semblance of revenge seven years later, though, with Luis Enrique – the manager of Barcelona in 2017 – now at the helm of the Parisians.
Barça won 3-2 in Paris, with two goals from Raphinha and a winner from Andreas Christensen, but PSG went to Barcelona and got their own back in the second leg.
Raphinha gave the hosts an early lead, but things turned when Ronald Araújo was sent off after just 29 minutes. That allowed PSG to get back into it, and former Barça man Ousmane Dembélé equalised on the night, before Vitinha and a pair of Mbappé goals led to Luis Enrique dumping his old team out.
They fell at the semi-final stage, though, losing 2-0 on aggregate to Borussia Dortmund.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Liverpool (1-1 agg, 4-1 pens) – Last 16: 2024-25First Leg: 0-1, Second Leg: 1-0 (AET)
The following season, Luis Enrique’s men did it again.
This one felt a little likelier, though, as PSG had dominated the first leg at the Parc Des Princes, only to lose 1-0 to a late Harvey Elliott goal.
In the second leg in Liverpool, it was a much more even affair, and if anything, the Premier League side had the better of things, but PSG won 1-0 thanks to Dembélé’s first-half tap-in.
The game ultimately went to penalties, which PSG won comfortably, and they made the most of that victory by going all the way to lift their first ever European Cup/Champions League.
So, what chances do Real Madrid, Sporting and Barcelona have of joining this list?
According to the Opta supercomputer, Barcelona are the likeliest to overturn their deficit. Despite trailing 2-0 to Atlético and having Pau Cubarsí sent off, therefore suspended for the second leg, the Blaugrana were still able to make it through to the semi-finals in 20% of the supercomputer’s simulations.
Real Madrid will have a tough task against Bayern Munich in the Allianz Arena after losing 2-1 in the first leg on Tuesday. They did, though, improve as the game went on and had it not been for Manuel Neuer’s nine saves, could well have even won that game. Never count Madrid out in the Champions League, and the supercomputer hands them a 13.1% chance of advancing.
Sporting are seen as the least likely to make it through, up against Arsenal, currently ranked first in the Opta Power Rankings, and needing to overcome their 1-0 defeat in Lisbon. A late Kai Havertz goal handed the Gunners a win in what was a fairly even game. Sporting are generally better on home soil, though, so it’s understandable that they only made it past Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium in 8.4% of sims.
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How Many Teams Have Recovered From First-Leg Home Defeats in the UEFA Champions League? Opta Analyst.
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