With seven matchdays remaining of the 2025-26 Premier League season, we look at the prospects of the teams desperately trying to stay out of the relegation zone.
No team wants to go down, but we do all love a good relegation scrap.
We haven’t had many in recent Premier League seasons, but 2025-26 could produce one of the most intriguing we’ve seen for years. The necessary ingredients are all there: a competitive league in which seemingly anyone can beat anyone, multiple teams involved (not just the promoted clubs), and including one of the biggest names in European football.
Leeds United, Nottingham Forest, Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham are all clamouring to stay away from the drop zone, and it seems like as many eyes are on the relegation fight as the title race in the Premier League.
We won’t be including Wolves and Burnley in this, by the way. They are 13 and 10 points away from safety, respectively, so it would take a minor miracle for either to stay up from here. In the Opta supercomputer’s latest 10,000 simulations, both were relegated in 99.9% of them.
Let’s see what the supercomputer thinks of the others’ chances, though…
Supercomputer Predictions
When we built the Opta supercomputer with microchips, sticky tape and a child’s wish, it was for times like this.
What does the supercomputer see happening from its latest 10,000 simulations?
It’s not great news for West Ham fans, as they were relegated more often than not, obviously not helped by having fewer points than their three closest rivals. They also, in theory, have the toughest run-in of the four, but we’ll come to that shortly.
Nuno Espírito Santo’s side went down in 58.7% of simulations, which might be concerning for them, but if they can eke out a win over bottom-placed Wolves at home on Friday, things could change a fair bit.
Just a point ahead of them are Tottenham. It would be absolutely remarkable for the Premier League to lose a club the size of Spurs, but after finishing 17th last season, it is also not as surprising as it should be to see them in this predicament.
Tottenham have taken a big swing to try to avoid the unthinkable, bringing Roberto De Zerbi to the club with the task of rescuing them after Igor Tudor’s underwhelming and short spell. The former Brighton and Marseille boss was unable to save them in 26.2% of sims, which of course means Spurs did stay up almost three-quarters of the time.
Another club who have tried to change their trajectory by switching managers this season are Nottingham Forest. Vítor Pereira is their fourth boss of the 2025-26 campaign, following Nuno, Ange Postecoglou and Sean Dyche.
Fresh off their massive 3-0 win at Spurs last time out – well, not that fresh, it was almost three weeks ago – Forest only went down in 8.7% of simulations. But with a Europa League quarter-final against FC Porto to navigate over the next week, they could get sucked back into it if their league form is affected.
Leeds United could do with some goals. They haven’t scored in their last four league games, though 0-0 draws in their last two against Crystal Palace and Brentford at least got some points on the board.
They did produce a momentum-boosting win on penalties at West Ham in the FA Cup on Sunday, though, and the fact they have one of the easier-looking run-ins on paper means the supercomputer only sees them relegated in 6.5% of sims.
Of course, percentages are subject to change, so keep checking our predicted table to find the latest numbers between now and the end of May.
The Run-In
For a more detailed look at fixture difficulty for each Premier League team, you can click below.
Premier League Fixture Difficulty
Premier LeaguePremier League Fixture Difficulty: How the Run-In Could Impact Title, European Qualification and Relegation
2 hours ago Ryan BensonIn summary, though, of the four teams scrapping to stay away from 18th place, it is Leeds who have the ‘easiest’ run-in, with their opponents having an average Opta Power Rating of 89.0. Their toughest game is their next one, away to rivals Manchester United on Monday, so get something from Old Trafford and Daniel Farke’s men will be in a fairly strong position. Only Wolves have a simpler set of remaining fixtures on paper of every team in the whole league.
After Man Utd, Leeds take on Wolves (H), Bournemouth (A), Burnley (H), Tottenham (A), Brighton (H) and West Ham (A).
Spurs have the next-simplest run of games of these four relegation-threatened teams, with their opponents having an average rating of 90.2. They face Sunderland (A), Brighton (H), Wolves (A), Aston Villa (A), Leeds (H), Chelsea (A) and Everton (H).
Nottingham Forest host Aston Villa at the weekend, before taking on Burnley (H), Sunderland (A), Chelsea (A), Newcastle (H), Manchester United (A) and Bournemouth (H). Their average opponent difficulty is 90.8, the eighth ‘easiest’ in the league.
West Ham have the ‘toughest’ end to the season of the four, though it is still ‘easier’ than nine others in the league. The Hammers have a game they’ll think they can get three points from at home to Wolves on Friday, before taking on Crystal Palace (A), Everton (H), Brentford (A), Arsenal (H), Newcastle (A) and Leeds (H).
How Many Points Are Needed to Stay Up?
The cliché goes that 40 points is the target to make sure you stay up in the Premier League. We’re here to tell you that is a load of hogwash.
It is actually 39 points.
How did we reach that conclusion? Well, the average number of points won by the team finishing in 18th in the Premier League since the English top flight was reduced to 20 teams in 1995 is 38.1, meaning 39 points will keep you up more often than not.
It might require more this time, though. The last time a team in 18th had as many as the 29 points West Ham currently do after 31 games was 2012-13. Wigan Athletic had 30 points with seven matches left, though they did only win six more points after that to finish 18th and go down. Of course, the Latics were slightly distracted by what turned out to be a successful FA Cup run, but that’s no longer an issue for the Hammers after their quarter-final loss on penalties to Leeds last weekend.
Teams may have been lulled into a false sense of security this season, as in recent years the average points needed to stay up has been lower than usual. Across the last 30 Premier League campaigns, the team finishing 18th have only won fewer than 30 points three times, with each of those occurring in the last five years, including both of the last two. Across the last five seasons, the average points of the team finishing 18th has been just 29.6.
Leicester City’s 25 points last season was the fewest the team finishing 18th in the Premier League have won in the competition’s history.
That’s obviously not relevant now, though, with West Ham already on 29 points with seven games remaining. It is likely the team finishing 17th will need closer to 40 points, if not more.
It should be pointed out, though, that the last time the team finishing 18th in the Premier League won at least 40 points was in 2002-03, which funnily enough, was West Ham (42 points).
The Opta supercomputer predicts the Hammers will finish 18th this season, and will do so with 37 points, with Spurs finishing 17th on 38.
Premier League 2025-26: Opta Supercomputer Projected Bottom Six
15: Leeds United – 42 points16: Nottingham Forest – 41 points17: Tottenham – 38 points18: West Ham – 37 points19: Burnley – 26 points20: Wolves – 25 points
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Premier League Relegation Battle: Who Will Stay and Who Will Go? Opta Analyst.
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