“Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated,” Trump said in a post on Tuesday, in which he announced that the countries had agreed to a temporary ceasefire.
Read More: The Iran Ceasefire Reveals a Domino Effect of Conflict
Iranian state media reported on Wednesday that the Strait of Hormuz had been closed less than a day into the temporary ceasefire in response to Israel’s continuing attacks in Lebanon, where it has been carrying out an extensive bombing campaign targeting the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah.
Read more: Can the Iran Ceasefire Last? We Asked 3 Experts About the Road Ahead
Given those alleged violations, he suggested, "a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations is unreasonable."
“It’s going to end up becoming a crucial sticking point,” Trita Parsi, executive vice president of Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, tells TIME of Israel’s war in Lebanon. “I think it's going to be very difficult for the Iranians to agree to a ceasefire on their own for themselves, while leaving Lebanon exposed.”
Here’s what you need to know about the Iranian proposal that leaders from both countries have indicated could serve as a basis for the talks, and the potential points of contention in the negotiations.
1. "Non-aggression"2. "Continuation of Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz"3. "Acceptance of enrichment"4. "Lifting all primary sanctions"5. "Lifting all secondary sanctions"6. "Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions"7. "Termination of all IAEA Board of Governors resolutions"8. "Payment of compensation to Iran"9. "Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region"10. "Cessation of war on all fronts, including against the heroic Islamic Resistance of Lebanon."
The White House, for its part, has not detailed the contents of Iran’s plan.
Qalibaf, in his own Wednesday statement, referred to three points of what he characterized as the 10-point proposal Trump had called “workable” that the Iranian leader said have already been violated.
What are the potential sticking points in the proposal?
Public comments from officials indicate multiple areas where Iran and the U.S. don’t appear to be aligned as the slated talks in Islamabad approach.
The countries involved in the conflict and the two-week ceasefire are also clashing over whether the agreement bars attacks on Lebanon.
The White House has also insisted that Lebanon is not included. “Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire. That has been relayed to all parties involved in the ceasefire,” Leavitt said on Wednesday.
“The Iran–U.S. Ceasefire terms are clear and explicit: the U.S. must choose—ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both,” Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on X.
“The Iranians are gambling now that Trump will put pressure on Israel to back away from Lebanon, to include Lebanon in the ceasefire,” Vatanka tells TIME. “It's a risk because Trump, A) might not want to do that. B) He might not have the power to do it. Netanyahu can tell him, ‘I don't care what Washington tells me, I'm Israel. I do what I wish.’ This decision Iranians have made, they're going for region-wide cease fire.”
Parsi, of the Quincy Institute, also stresses that Israel’s attacks on Lebanon could present a significant hurdle for the U.S. in negotiations. “The Israelis obviously don't want to agree to the ceasefire. Can the United States reign in Israel? If it cannot or will not do so, what is the value of a ceasefire with the United States?”
Vatanka calls many of Iran’s demands, such as the proposals for U.S. military withdrawal and reparations, ”wishful thinking.”.
“I think Trump will end up accepting that the Iranians will have—together with the Omani—some sort of a collection system, a toll system in the Strait of Hormuz, as long as they keep the strait open,” he says. The White House has said Trump is opposed to tolls being imposed on ships passing through the strait.
A deal giving full control of the strait to Iran would be “totally unacceptable” to the Gulf states in the region, Jones added.
But Jones also says that, even though the Strait of Hormuz is Trump’s biggest priority right now, he mostly wants to “find a way out of this war.”
To that end, Parsi’s estimation is that at the end of these two weeks Iran and the U.S. may not have reached a traditional ceasefire agreement, but instead come to a “non agreement status quo” in which the U.S. agrees to exit the war, and Iran strikes its own deals with its neighbors for exports through the Strait.
“I think for the Gulf states, this will be very problematic,” he adds, “not because of the cost or that this will dramatically change the equation of their finances, but because they will recognize that Iran's geopolitical position actually, in some ways, was enhanced by this war, rather than being weakened.”
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