The Chicago Cubs have just one more game on their calendar (tonight, 5:40 pm CT in Tampa Bay) before their starting right fielder, Seiya Suzuki, returns from the Injured List on Friday. And with all love to Matt Shaw, he’s not going to keep Seiya Suzuki out of the lineup once he returns.
So, yes, Matt Shaw’s extra runway *for now* is likely coming to an end.
But the debate over where and how often Shaw will work his way into the action is increasingly viable now that he’s showing some serious signs of life with the bat. The results have been better than usual, sure, but it’s what’s under the hood that really has my attention. So let’s talk about it.
Matt Shaw Improvements
Matt Shaw is currently riding a tidy three-game hitting streak, including four total hits, two homers, and a double. That’s the smallest of samples, obviously, but it was also enough to bring his season-long slash line above the league average mark (102 wRC+).
But that’s hardly the point here. Because while results are great — they are still the goal, after all! — for a young player like Matt Shaw, I’m much more concerned with his swing decisions, contact rates, quality of contact, and so on. And the good news is that those numbers have so far looked MILES better than his rookie season, 2025.
Let’s start with the high-level Statcast data before drilling down deeper.
Hard-Hit Rate:
2025: 29.4% 2026: 42.9% League Avg.: 39.8%Average Exit Velocity:
2025: 84.9 MPH 2026: 90.3 MPH League Avg: 89.0 MPHBarrel Rate:
2025: 6.9% 2026: 10.7% League Avg.: 7.9%So right there on the surface, you can see some really meaningful improvement in just how often and how hard Matt Shaw is hitting the ball this season compared to last. And that’s the first, most important development of note to me because even during his “hot” second-half last season (130 wRC+), he wasn’t even CLOSE to this level of quality contact: 32.4 hard%, 86.7 exit velo, 10.1 barrel%. Indeed, that’s why I was so reluctant to get excited about what he had done.
Indeed, just look at his actual stats vs his expected stats for the second half alone. It just wasn’t good process, regardless of whether it was “working out.”
Second-half Stats:
.258 AVG vs .238 xAVG .522 SLG vs .416 xSLG .354 wOBA vs .310 xWOBANothing about how Shaw succeeded in the second half of last season was a good sign for his expected future performance. It was basically just the same sort of production – loaded with weak contact – but instead of a .241 BABIP, he benefitted from a .289 BABIP (…which was unearned based on how weakly he was hitting the ball).
But this season? He’s actually flipped that script. If anything, Shaw has been UNLUCKY to start the year (it’s way too early to lean on this as a sure-fire expectation of what’s to come, but I still think there’s value in actually appreciating and understanding what he has and hasn’t done).
2026 Stats:
.250 AVG vs .303 xAVG .469 SLG vs .488 xSLG .318 wOBA vs .341 xwOBANow, the obvious next question is … well, what else has changed? Is he swinging more? Less? At different pitches? From a different angle? And this is where some nuance comes into play.
On the surface, Matt Shaw is swinging more frequently here in 2026 than he did last season, both on pitches out of the zone and strikes. And although that’s not always a good thing, I think a more aggressive Matt Shaw is going to be a better Matt Shaw, especially because he is pretty good at making contact and avoiding strikeouts.
Being patient and taking walks is good, but passivity is not. There’s still a balance that needs to be struck here as his walk rate is down considerably early in 2026, but the general trend, I think, is better for him.
And there’s one more hole down which we dive. And for that, we head back to Statcast.
This season, Matt Shaw’s bat speed and fast-swing rate are both down a tick. And his swing length is down too. All of that is less of a “concern” and more of a “is he still focusing a bit too much on making contact instead of making LOUD contact?” But I have good news on that front.
Squared Up Contact Rate:
2025: 28.2% 2026: 48.8% League Avg.: 32.4%In case you’re unfamiliar with this data, Squared Up Contact Rate does two things: First, it measures the physical maximum exit velocity possible based on the speed of a given swing and the velocity of a given pitch. Then, it calculates how much of that maximum exit velocity was actually generated on the batted ball event when the hitter made contact.
In other words, if a certain swing/pitch speed combo had a maximum exit velocity of 100 MPH and you recorded a 90 MPH exit velocity, you would have 90%. Those are unrealistic, but easy-to-understand numbers just for example.
To that end, Matt Shaw is WAY up this season, above both last year and the league average. In other words, even with his slightly lower bat speed, he’s actually really maximizing the quality of the contact he’s making. And that could be a sweet spot that allows him to keep making a high rate of contact without sacrificing power/exit velo/hard-hit rate.
And part of the reason he’s able to succeed in that way is because his ideal attack angle (while down a bit from last season) is still WAY better than the league average hitter.
***
Now, what comes next for Matt Shaw is a real question. When Seiya Suzuki comes back, the starts in right field will dry up a bit. However, I still think we’ll see Shaw in there multiple times in any given week, especially when the Cubs face lefties, against whom he’s been far better than righties.
There’s also a chance that Seiya Suzuki and Alex Bregman (older guys who’ve dealt with injuries) might take more half (DH) and full days off than usual. And, as we all know too well, guys get hurt.
But honestly, I’m just not sweating it. Shaw is turning into a very valuable super utility guy, who can realistically give days off to guys playing first, second, short, third, left, and right field. And that’s just THIS year.
Next year, when both Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ may leave via free agency, he could turn into an everyday outfielder. And that’s just another reason to root for these underlying statistics to maintain their promise the rest of the way. Bottom line? It’s been a good start for Matt Shaw, with much more encouraging underlying data than his “hot” second half in 2025.
Hence then, the article about matt shaw s hot start this year is even more encouraging than his strong second half in 2025 was published today ( ) and is available on Bleacher Nation ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Matt Shaw’s Hot Start This Year Is Even More Encouraging Than His “Strong” Second Half in 2025 )
Also on site :