Donald Trump agreed to an 11th-hour ceasefire deal with Iran last night after issuing an apocalyptic threat that left the world holding its breath.
Trump warned that an “entire civilisation would die” in Iran if it did not open the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping way through which around 20 per cent of the world’s oil and gas transits, by 1am UK time.
The Pope, the UN and mediator Pakistan were among those urging the White House to step back from the brink.
Just over an hour before the deadline, Trump announced he had reached an agreement with Tehran. But the deal raises as many questions as it answers: what does it entail? Will it hold? And what happens next?
What we know of the deal
Announcing the agreement last night, Trump said that Iran had sent a 10-point peace proposal, which he said resolved “almost all of the various points of past contention” between the countries.
Trump said the plan would be finalised and confirmed during a two-week ceasefire, during which the US and Iran would pause attacks while Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz.
The deal appears to have been primarily brokered by Pakistan, whose Prime Minister appealed for both sides to hold their attacks for a fortnight.
The 10 points have not yet been confirmed, but Iranian state media said they included a guarantee that Iran and its allies would not be attacked again, continued Iranian control over the Strait, withdrawal of US troops from the Middle East, the release of frozen Iranian assets, and the lifting of all sanctions. It also reportedly requires a UN security council resolution to make any deal binding.
Iranian workers and volunteers gather at the site of Israeli-American strikes that according to local media reported destroyed the Rafi-Nia Synagogue and nearby residential buildings in Tehran, on 7 April (Photo: AFP via Getty Images)However, in the version released in Farsi, Iran also included the phrase “acceptance of enrichment” for its nuclear programme. That phrase was missing in English versions shared by Iranian diplomats to journalists, though it is unclear why.
While Tehran would lift its effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which it has been bombing in retaliation for American and Israeli strikes across Iran, it would also impose a fee of around $2 million (£1.5m) per ship, with the funds to be shared with Oman, and used to reconstruct infrastructure destroyed by American and Israeli attacks. This would be instead of direct compensation for the strikes, reports said.
What does the US want?
The US’s war aims have been far from clear, ranging from regime change to the dismantling of its nuclear programme, with conflicting narratives between Trump and his Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, on the American approach to the war.
In the short term, Trump’s priority appears to be to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He demanded Iran allow free passage through the waterway or face “hell”, as global oil prices spiked. The agreement is likely to include firm guarantees of safe passage through the Strait for commercial vessels.
Two bulk carriers anchored at Muscat Anchorage in Oman as maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz comes to a halt (Photo: Elke Scholiers/Getty Images)Trump has also repeatedly said that Iran cannot be able to develop a nuclear weapon, and any peace agreement is likely to include reference to this. Trump said the initial US attacks were launched to prevent a nuclear threat, and came after a breakdown in negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme.
Iran has been expanding its nuclear capabilities in recent years, which it claims to be for civilian purposes. Most analysts and Western leaders dispute this. In 2024, the UK assessed that Iran was enriching uranium to 60 per cent – significantly beyond the 3.67 per cent permitted under the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and far beyond enrichment levels considered necessary for civilian purposes.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has also criticised Iran’s “general lack of co-operation” over its nuclear programme.
Satellite image shows damaged buildings at the Natanz Nuclear Facility near Natanz, Isfahan province, in central Iran on 1 March (Photo: 2026 Planet Labs PBC / AFP via Getty Images)Trump has also said he wants regime change in Iran, even claiming he has already brought it about – although there is no evidence that Tehran’s leadership has substantially changed hands. Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is the son of the previous leader.
And it is unclear yet how far Iran will bow to America’s demands for change.
What does Iran want?
Iran has suffered extensive damage in the war with the US and Israel. Almost 3,600 people, including at least 1,665 civilians, have been killed, according to US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency.
It will want to end US and Israeli attacks and be allowed to rebuild its infrastructure. The regime will also want time to reassert its control after repeated leadership changes and damage to military assets.
But long term, its aims still appear fundamentally at odds with the US.
Smoke rises after Iran launched a missile attack targeting the headquarters of the US Navy Fifth Fleet in Manama, Bahrain on 28 February (Photo by Stringer/Anadolu via Getty Images)It is unlikely to abandon hopes of developing a nuclear weapon, with some analysts believing American attacks could encourage the regime to double down on the programme. The Farsi version of the ceasefire deal including reference to continued nuclear activity indicates Iran has not given up these ambitions.
It may also not be willing to cede control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s de-facto blockade has been its key leverage over the US in this war, and it will always be able to threaten to resume attacks.
What does Israel want?
It is not yet clear how involved Israel was in negotiations over the deal. Israel has its own war aims which may not fully align with Trump’s.
Israel has said it supports the decision to pause strikes for two weeks, according to the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office, and backs American efforts to ensure Iran no longer poses a nuclear, missile or “terror” threat. Israel agreed that Tehran must immediately open the Strait of Hormuz and stop attacks on the US, Israel and the wider Middle East region.
Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as they shake hands during a press conference after meeting at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida, in December (Photo: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)But there is confusion over Lebanon, where Israeli attacks have killed around 1,500 people and displaced 1.2 million others, according to Lebanese authorities. Netanyahu’s office said the ceasefire does not include Lebanon. Pakistan’s Prime Minister had previously said that the agreed ceasefire covered “everywhere including Lebanon”.
What is the impact on oil and gas?
Energy prices have spiked in recent months as gas sites, oil infrastructure and shipping have been bombed.
After news of a ceasefire, the price of oil and gas dropped significantly. European gas prices have fallen 20 per cent since the ceasefire was announced.
This will spell relief for consumers worried about prices at the petrol pumps. But with no guarantee that the ceasefire will hold, oil and gas prices are unlikely to stabilise for long.
Rocket trails are seen in the sky amid a fresh barrage of Iranian missile attacks above the Israeli coastal city of Netanya on 23 March (Photo: AFP via Getty Images)What happens next?
With both sides confirming late last night that they had agreed to a deal, the ceasefire is due to proceed for the next two weeks.
The number of ships allowed through the Strait of Hormuz should rise – but only once shipping companies are confident in safe passage, which may take time.
Behind the scenes, negotiators will use the window to confirm details of the plan which they hope will lead to lasting peace in Iran.
But if either side is unhappy with the course of the negotiations, there is little preventing them from resuming attacks once again.
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