Donald Trump’s threat to bomb Iran’s civilian infrastructure risks escalation in the Middle East conflict which insiders fear could lead to retaliatory attacks on British military and diplomatic assets.
The US President’s sweary threat to blow up power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut would signal a new phase in the war which could see British and American diplomatic outposts, research centres, and critical infrastructure under attack, officials have warned.
Iran’s central military command said any response to US aggression would be “much more devastating and widespread”. This has fueled concerns that UK sites across the region that are aiding the US operation are at risk of being drawn into direct conflict, while long-range missiles and sleeper cells threaten violence closer to home.
Military bases in the firing line
For Britain and the United States, the immediate concern is the extensive network of bases and shared facilities across the Gulf that could become targets in any Iranian retaliation.
UK personnel are understood to be embedded across a chain of strategically critical sites across the region.
Al Minhad air base in the United Arab Emirates serves as a key transit hub for Five Eyes partners. It serves as Australia’s military operations centre for the Middle East, but it has been used extensively by the UK, including as a site for monitoring the Straits of Hormuz.
Al Minhad Air Base in the United Arab Emirates is the Australian military’s central hub in the Middle East and a key transit base for the UK (Photo: Commonwealth of Australia, Department of Defence)The UK’s naval support facility at HMS Jufair in Bahrain serves as one of Britain’s primary maritime hubs in the Gulf, previously hosting mine-countermeasure vessels and Royal Navy warships. Further east, a joint logistics base in Duqm, Oman, provides support for aircraft carriers operating in the Indian Ocean.
Air power is concentrated at sites such as Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, where RAF expeditionary units operate alongside the US Combined Air Operations Centre – the nerve centre for coalition air campaigns. The UK’s primary intelligence and air support hub is based at RAF Akritori in Cyprus, and the joint UK-US military site in Diego Garcia.
Iranian missile and drone attacks in Iraq and Bahrain have already come close to British troops, while RAF Akrotiri was recently struck by a drone. As temperatures continue to rise, insiders within the Ministry of Defence expect more such incidents.
“We have a number or shared strategically important locations in the region, which are all liable to be targeted,” a military intelligence source told The i Paper.
Another military source, involved in air defences, agreed that British bases, particularly in Cyprus and Diego Garcia, were targets but said Iran was likely to focus on joint US-UK “centres of gravity” which would deliver maximum political and psychological impact if hit.
A joint naval exercise in the Gulf between US 5th Fleet Command and Bahraini forces in 2021 – Bahrain is home to one of Britain’s primary maritime hubs in the Gulf (Photo by Mazen Mahdi / AFP/ Getty)Insiders said that British diplomatic bases in the region could also be placed in danger.
“I wouldn’t overlook the embassies in the area,” a Ministry of Defence source warned, pointing to the use of diplomatic outposts as key hubs for military coordination in the region. Another source said that Iran would be “selective” and only target the embassies of countries it is either “comfortable” provoking “or feels are already maximally provoked”.
Expanding threat
Iran’s development of longer-range ballistic missiles has increased concerns that the conflict, and Iran’s military response, may no longer be confined to the Middle East.
Tehran’s recent failed attempts to strike Diego Garcia has expanded the threat radius to as much as 2,500 miles, placing parts of Europe, and the UK, within reach.
British bases such as RAF Fairford, which has been used by US forces to launch operations, and facilities in Norfolk that support transatlantic deployments, are now viewed in defence circles as potential targets in an extreme scenario.
Planes stationed at Al Minhad Air Base in United Arab Emirates (Photo: Military.ddns.net)Iran’s ambassador to London, Seyed Ali Mousavi, has made clear that facilities linked to US operations could be considered legitimate targets, depending on Britain’s level of involvement.
His remarks highlight the precarious position facing the UK as it balances alliance commitments with the risk of becoming a direct target.
Beyond conventional warfare
Security officials warn that the threat is not limited to missiles and drones. Iran has a long track record of asymmetric operations, including cyber attacks, proxy warfare and the use of sleeper cells.
British intelligence agencies have stepped up monitoring of suspected Iranian-linked networks in the UK amid fears that Tehran could retaliate indirectly. Officials are particularly concerned about the regime’s use of platforms such as Telegram to recruit operatives for deniable operations, mirroring tactics previously associated with Russian intelligence services.
Last week, Two British men – Hamza Iqbal, 20, and Rehan Khan, 19 – and a 17-year-old boy were charged with arson after a number of Jewish volunteer ambulances were set alight in North London last month. Counter Terror police were understood to have suspected Iran’s hand in the attack, while an unknown self-proclaimed Iranian terror group claimed responsibility for the incident.
Iran’s use of online tools and cyber warfare has long been a concern to Whitehall officials, but fears are sharpening amid increased hostility in the Gulf.
The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Roosevelt (DDG 80) in Manama, Bahrain, home to joint US-UK Naval bases (Photo: U.S. Navy /USS Roosevelt)Last week, Iran-linked hackers breached a key supplier to the NHS that temporarily halted the delivery of critical medical equipment. Security experts warn that such attacks pose a “catastrophic risk” to public services if scaled up during a broader “grey-zone” conflict.
Matthew Dunn, a former MI6 field officer with experience of the Iranian threat, said Britain’s close alignment with Washington leaves it particularly exposed as a “symbolic strike-zone” for Iran to “vent its anger and marshal support for its cause”.
Potential targets could extend beyond military installations to include research facilities, transport infrastructure and even symbolic civilian sites associated with the UK’s political and security establishment, according to Dunn.
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