Surprise, surprise: Jon Rahm is the one to beat and Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy sit farther down the list in our FRACAS projection model for the 2026 Masters.
For the fifth year in a row, Scottie Scheffler is the betting markets’ clear favorite to win the Masters.
For the first time in that run, there’s a reasonable case he shouldn’t be the golfer to beat at Augusta National.
The Opta Analyst FRACAS prediction model (Field Rating and Course-Adjusted Strokes Gained) has had a good run with the Masters, correctly picking Scheffler in 2024 (not that everyone wasn’t) before pivoting him to co-favorite status with eventual winner Rory McIlroy last year.
This year, the model foresees a shift, with Scheffler in – by his ridiculous standards – a down run of form over the past few months. Nobody will ever be surprised if the best player in the world wins any major, let alone one he’s won twice before. But more than in any other Masters in recent history, FRACAS sees a world in which four players have a materially better chance than Scheffler (each is at least a full percentage point higher in win probability, but there’s actually eight golfers ahead of him).
Of course, there are more storylines with the year’s first major tournament, which tees off Thursday morning.
McIlroy’s title defense comes at an interesting time, as he’s only contended in one event in the early going of the 2026 schedule – a tie for second place at the Genesis Invitational in February. FRACAS cares a lot about form and, for that reason, gives the sixth Grand Slam winner in men’s golf history the 11th-best shot to win at 2.8%.
Also notably, Tiger Woods (criminal matters) and Phil Mickelson (personal matters) are absent, something that hasn’t happened with both of them since 1994.
If the history-filled tournament plays out the way the model expects, there could be a power vacuum of crowd favorites at the top, lest the Augusta patrons go nuts for Matt Fitzpatrick or Ludvig Aberg.
Who Will Win the 2026 Masters? The FRACAS Pick
The leader in FRACAS win probability is indeed a past champion, it’s just not Scheffler or McIlroy. FRACAS likes Jon Rahm, who in 2023 became the fourth Spaniard to win a green jacket.
The full top 10:
Rahm has a superb all-around game and a good Masters history, but he’s in pole position in the FRACAS model because he’s playing brilliantly of late. He hasn’t missed the top five in any of his last five LIV Golf starts, and he sprinkled a win into the middle of that run.
Rahm would readily admit that a stretch of top LIV finishes isn’t the same as a commensurate run on the PGA Tour, but he has very little to prove. There’s no weakness in his game that would preclude him from gaining a third major title (he won the 2021 U.S. Open in addition to the 2023 Masters).
The most surprising name up there might be Matt Fitzpatrick, the 2022 U.S. Open winner who has a couple of major top-10s since then but hasn’t been competitive for wins.
Why is he nearly a co-favorite with Rahm, who’s been a rung above him all decade?
Two things: First, Fitzpatrick is in the best form in the sport, having improved his finish in every event he’s played this season. He went from 63rd (at the season-opening American Express) to 41st to 14th to ninth to second (at The Players Championship) to a win at the Valspar Championship in late March. It feels weird to call a four-time Ryder Cup player and U.S. Open champ an ascendant property at 31 years old, but that’s Fitzpatrick at the moment.
The Englishman is also just a really, really good course fit. The Masters tends to be won and lost on a series of long, difficult par-4s that offer significant scoring variability. These are Augusta National’s fifth, 10th, 11th, 17th, and 18th holes. FRACAS projects that Fitzpatrick will gain more strokes on those long, hard par-4s than any other player in the field. It might be funny to call Fitzpatrick “the best course fit” at a place where Scheffler has won twice, but as McIlroy learned at the PGA Championship last year, a player’s fit at a given course isn’t just about how well he’s done there in the past. It’s also about how his current game maps onto the architecture of the place, and in that sense, Fitzpatrick has a real leg up. Golf is weird.
Fitzpatrick is FRACAS’ biggest course-fit gainer, at more than 0.3 strokes per round. Collin Morikawa, at 0.2, is next. Morikawa also has a PGA Tour win this year and is in adequate Masters-contending form.
As always, keep a close eye on Bryson DeChambeau, who FRACAS expects to be the best player on Augusta’s par-5 holes by a wide margin.
Looking for someone who’s the opposite of a great course fit? You might consider Justin Thomas, who FRACAS expects to lose 0.2 strokes per round relative to his baseline. Thomas has missed two of the last three cuts at Augusta and hasn’t been close to contention since 2022, when he finished T-8. It’s tough to consider him a factor anyway.
The Hunt for Value Plays
The field is wide open, but only up to a point. It’s common before majors for FRACAS to give roughly 80% win probability to the 25 highest-rated players in the field. This year, that share is even higher, with 86.2% probability of the winner being someone from the top 25 in FRACAS’ projection.
So while nobody has nearly the level of chance that Scheffler or McIlroy had last year, we’re especially unlikely to see an upstart. But what’s the harm in looking for fun possibilities?
Min Woo Lee hasn’t actually won anything, but he’s arguably in more consistent great form these days than even Fitzpatrick. The Aussie has three top-six finishes in his last five starts and didn’t need to tire himself out at the Valero Texas Open this past weekend to get his game to the right place. FRACAS win probability: 2.0%, 18th-highest in the field.
Samuel Stevens (0.9%) gets the fifth-biggest Augusta course bump in the field at about 0.2 strokes per round. You’ve probably never heard of Stevens unless you’re a deeply devoted golf fan, but he’s 45th in the Official World Golf Ranking after languishing around 140 just over a year ago. He’s one of the best tee-to-green players on the PGA Tour, although he gives back some of that advantage around the greens. The 29-year-old doesn’t have a PGA Tour win (aside from a PGA Tour Latinoamerica event in 2021) and won’t get his first here. But if you’re interested in tracking dark horse top-10 possibilities, Stevens’ ball-striking should suit him nicely.
The Masters will be fun, like always. And like almost always, the winner will not be some big shocker.
For more coverage, follow on social media at Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
2026 Masters Picks, Odds & Value Plays: FRACAS Predictions for the Green Jacket Opta Analyst.
Hence then, the article about 2026 masters picks odds value plays fracas predictions for the green jacket was published today ( ) and is available on The Analyst ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( 2026 Masters Picks, Odds & Value Plays: FRACAS Predictions for the Green Jacket )
Also on site :