Trump’s ‘war crimes’ flirtation is a deadly game. It would be his undoing ...Middle East

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Either President Donald Trump is playing one of the most daring games of brinksmanship in world history, or he is about to unleash military action on Iran that may soon leave him facing war crimes charges.

The US leader’s decision over the next few hours will have seismic impacts on his own reputation and legacy, the military forces he has ordered into harm’s way in the Middle East, and the entire world economy.

Over the holiday weekend, the clearest indication he telegraphed of his plans consisted of a foul-mouthed social media tirade that suggested he may be losing his grip on reality in ways that may eventually limit his own liberty.

In his threat to launch bombing raids on critical civilian infrastructure in Iran – he specified power plants and bridges, but stopped short of repeating his vow to target oil infrastructure and desalination plants – the President sounded almost desperate. Describing Iranians as “crazy bastards”, he ordered them to “open the F***in’ Strait”, suggesting regime leaders would soon find themselves “living in Hell” if they ignored his command.

If Trump fails to reverse course, and on Tuesday launches his threatened bombing raids (“Power Plant Day and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one”) he may be engaging in actions that ultimately constrain his ability, and that of his top lieutenants, ever to leave the United States without risk of arrest.

Iran’s deputy foreign minister is already signalling that Tehran may seek legal redress for the actions Trump is contemplating. Kazem Gharibabadi said on Monday that “the threat to attack power plants and bridges … is a war crime under Article 8(2)(b) of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court”.

Some NGOs in the region are urging the Iranian government to file a declaration with the Court over alleged war crimes committed by US and Israeli forces. Dawn, a group founded by slain Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, argued that early attacks on schools and hospitals already require a “pathway to accountability”.

US President Donald Trump has said he ‘doesn’t need international law’ (Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

But Trump has no truck with the ICC. Last May, he sanctioned the Court, accusing it of engaging “in illegitimate and baseless actions targeting America and our close ally Israel”. He argued “the ICC has no jurisdiction over the United States or Israel, as neither country is party to the Rome Statute”.

That stance has not protected Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from being on the receiving end of an arrest warrant for alleged war crimes committed in Gaza. Since the warrant’s November 2024 publication, the Israeli leader has been at risk of arrest if he sets foot in 125 separate nations including the UK that are legally required to detain him if he enters their territory.

Trump, Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio will be at similar risk if the US intentionally attacks civilian sites like power plants that are not deemed under international law to be legitimate military targets.

Iran also risks facing war crimes charges. Over the weekend, authorities in Kuwait claimed two power and desalination plants were targeted by Iranian projectiles. In a region where water is in chronically short supply, Iran’s neighbours rely on desalination facilities that the regime in Tehran has shown no compunction about attacking.

Like Trump himself, the White House is playing fast and loose with regard to the President’s true intentions. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Sunday that Trump “will always act within the confines of the law”, although she followed that sentence with an immediate caveat. “With respect to achieving the aims of Operation Epic Fury, President Trump is going to move forward unabated,” she insisted.

As recently as January, the President told the New York Times that “I don’t need international law”. He claimed that he enjoyed executive powers that would be constrained only by “my own morality. My own mind. It’s the only thing that can stop me”.

To the extent that his post-presidency could be safely spent at Mar-a-Lago in Florida, his golf club in New Jersey or Trump Tower in New York, the President’s assertion may be correct. But Vance and Rubio, the two men hoping to succeed him in office, would find their lives dramatically restricted in the event that even an arrest warrant were to be issued by the ICC demanding their detention.

It seems unlikely that Iran is going to agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, giving Trump the victory for international commerce that he is demanding. But there is, of course, always the possibility that the hours ahead will see a classic “Taco” moment (“Trump Always Chickens Out”), and that he will again postpone his threatened military action.

If he goes ahead and turns the lights out across Iran, the war will be entering a literally darker phase that puts the US President’s personal future on the line.

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