After some nervy semi-finals, we now know the finalists for the six World Cup play-offs. Who will ultimately qualify for this summer’s tournament?
It’s almost the perfect hors d’oeuvre to the FIFA World Cup. The play-offs to determine the last six countries to qualify for the tournament produced some exciting semi-finals last week, and now 12 remain in the hunt.
In the inter-confederation play-offs, Jamaica eked past New Caledonia, while Bolivia narrowly beat Suriname to advance.
In Europe, Italy overcame Northern Ireland, Türkiye beat Romania, Poland came from behind to defeat Albania, Denmark eased past North Macedonia, Kosovo won in Slovakia, Sweden defeated Ukraine, while Czechia and Bosnia-Herzegovina won on penalties against Republic of Ireland and Wales, respectively.
That sets up some intriguing matches to be played on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, when the full lineup for the 2026 World Cup will finally be confirmed.
Here, we preview each one and reveal which six nations the Opta supercomputer calculates are likeliest to make it to Canada, Mexico and the United States this summer.
UEFA Play-Offs
Path A
The winner of Path A will progress to World Cup Group B, joining Canada, Qatar and Switzerland.
Final: Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Italy
Path A set up the possibility of home nations Wales and Northern Ireland facing off for a place at the 2026 World Cup. Unfortunately for both, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Italy had other ideas.
The Bosnians looked to be heading out in Cardiff after Dan James put Wales in front with a spectacular strike, but with just four minutes remaining, veteran forward Edin Dzeko headed in an equaliser from a corner, before the visitors went on to win 4-2 on penalties.
Dzeko has scored six goals in his last seven matches across all competitions for Bosnia-Herzegovina, just one fewer than in his previous 25 internationals (7). He has played much of his club football in Italy in recent years, and will be looking to dump the Azzurri out of the World Cup at the play-off stage.
Italy have lost in the play-offs for each of the previous two World Cups, but after easing past Northern Ireland, will be looking to make it third time lucky in Zenica.
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4 days ago David SegarSandro Tonali and Moise Kean scored the goals that took Italy to the final, winning 2-0 in Bergamo, and the Opta supercomputer thinks Gennaro Gattuso’s men will get the job done.
Italy won a whopping 59.6% of the 10,000 supercomputer simulations after 90 minutes, with Bosnia-Herzegovina successful in just 19.5% despite having home advantage. The game went to extra-time in the remaining 20.8%.
Path B
The winner of Path B will go into World Cup Group F with Tunisia, the Netherlands and Japan.
Final: Sweden vs Poland
Sweden had a dreadful World Cup qualifying campaign, finishing bottom of Group B with no wins and two draws (L4). However, thanks to their Nations League performance, they earned a place in the play-offs, where they finally found some form on Wednesday with a 3-1 win against Ukraine.
Viktor Gyökeres scored a hat-trick as Graham Potter’s side set up a final against Poland. Should they get through, Sweden could well be a dark horse at the World Cup considering they still have Premier League pair Dejan Kulusevski and Alexander Isak to come back from injury.
They will have a tough assignment against Poland, though, still led by legendary striker Robert Lewandowski, who equalised in Wednesday’s 2-1 turnaround win over Albania. The Barcelona forward has contributed six goals in his last five games in World Cup qualifiers (4 goals, 2 assists).
Will Gyökeres or Lewandowski be gracing the World Cup, though? According to the Opta supercomputer, it’s likelier to be the former. Sweden won 40.9% of pre-match simulations, compared to Poland’s 32.4%.
There is a decent chance of extra-time, though, with the game ending level after 90 minutes 26.7% of the time.
Path C
The winner of Path C will go into World Cup Group D with Australia, United States and Paraguay.
Final: Kosovo vs Türkiye
Arguably the most exciting play-off semi-final was in Slovakia, where Kosovo won a seven-goal thriller 4-3 on Wednesday.
Franco Foda’s side produced somewhat of an upset, only being given a 22.5% chance of winning inside 90 minutes by the Opta supercomputer prior to the game, but their ruthlessness in front of goal sealed their place in the Path C final.
They will host Türkiye on Tuesday, who were made to work for their passage past Romania. A goal from Brighton’s Ferdi Kadioglu was enough to seal things 1-0, and the supercomputer is backing Türkiye to win again in the final.
The visitors were successful after 90 minutes in almost half of the pre-match sims (48.8%), while Kosovo only won in 27.2%. That, of course, is a higher chance than they were given for the semis, though.
The game went to extra-time in the remaining 23.9%.
Path D
The winner of Path D will go into World Cup Group A with Mexico, South Africa and South Korea.
Final: Czechia vs Denmark
After Matej Kovár’s own goal put Republic of Ireland 2-0 up in Prague on Wednesday, thoughts of Czechia being at the World Cup will have been a long way from many people’s minds.
However, Patrik Schick’s spot-kick and Ladislav Krejcí’s equaliser took the game to penalties, which the Czechs won 4-3 to advance to the final.
Denmark had a much simpler time of things, thrashing North Macedonia 4-0 in Copenhagen. Mikkel Damsgaard broke the deadlock, before two goals in two minutes just before the hour mark from Gustav Isaksen put the Danes in control. Christian Nørgaard made it four as Brian Riemer’s side strolled to the Path D final.
And Denmark have the edge with the Opta supercomputer ahead of this one, winning 42.1% of pre-match simulations after 90 minutes. Czechia were victorious in a respectable 32.5%, though, so this one could very well be close. Just over a quarter of the supercomputer’s simulations (25.5%) went to extra-time. It could be a long night in Prague.
Intercontinental Play-Offs
Pathway One
The winner of Pathway One will go into World Cup Group K with Portugal, Uzbekistan and Colombia.
Final: DR Congo vs Jamaica
We covered Jamaica last week and their hopes of reaching the World Cup for the first time since 1998. They just about managed to get past New Caledonia in the semi-final, with Wrexham’s Bailey Cadamarteri scoring the only goal of the game at Estadio Akron in Zapopan.
DR Congo have not qualified for the World Cup since their one appearance as Zaire back in 1974. They are just one game away from doing so again, though, after they finished as one of the best four second-place finishers in CAF qualifying, before beating Cameroon and Nigeria to reach this stage.
The Leopards reached the last 16 of the Africa Cup of Nations earlier this year before going out to Algeria, and will fancy their chances of competing in a second major tournament in 2026.
The Opta supercomputer has DR Congo as big favourites, winning 67.7% of the time in 90 minutes, compared to Jamaica’s 14.9% likelihood of success. The game went to extra-time in 17.4% of simulations.
Pathway Two
The winner of Pathway Two will go into World Cup Group I with Norway, France and Senegal.
Final: Iraq vs Bolivia
Nerves will have been jangling when Bolivia were 1-0 down to Suriname with 20 minutes to go in their Intercontinental semi-final in Guadalupe, but they fought back. Substitute Moisés Paniagua equalised, before Miguel Terceros’ penalty in the 79th minute won it for Óscar Villegas’ men.
They will now face Iraq for a place at the World Cup, which would mark the first time Bolivia have reached the tournament since the last edition that took place in the USA, back in 1994.
Iraq have only appeared once previously at the World Cup, and not since 1986, the last time it was held in Mexico. This game is therefore a particularly big deal for both nations looking to roll back the years.
Iraq should be experts in handling the nerves of a big game themselves, having beaten the United Arab Emirates 3-2 on aggregate in the fifth round of the Asian World Cup qualifiers in November. Amir Al-Ammari converted a penalty in the 17th minute of stoppage time to win it in dramatic fashion.
This game is the hardest to call, with there only a few percentage points between the sides. Iraq are favourites with the Opta supercomputer, winning inside 90 minutes in 37.5% of simulations. Bolivia secured their place in regular time in 35.2%, while it went to extra-time and possibly penalties in the remaining 27.3%.
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World Cup 2026 Play-Off Final Predictions: Who Will Qualify? Opta Analyst.
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