By Sam Blacker on SwimSwam
2026 NCAA DIVISION I MEN’S SWIMMING AND DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS
Dates: Wednesday, March 25–Saturday, March 28 Location: McAuley Aquatic Center, Atlanta, GA Defending Champions: Texas (1x) SwimSwam Preview Index Psych Sheets Preview Index Live Stream Live Results Live Recaps Prelims: Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 | Day 4 Finals: Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3While Texas’ swims this morning made them the overwhelming favorites to repeat tonight, there are very few places in the top that are locked in yet. It may take either a miracle or an implosion for some teams though – here’s what that could look like.
Texas
Best Case
Baylor Nelson and Will Modglin both finish in the top three in the 200 IM, and Hubert Kos sets another NCAA record in the 200 back as he goes 1:29 1:32-point. Both divers finish near the top of the ‘A’ final, before Kos then breaks 41 seconds leading off the Texas 400 free relay. That relay rides a blistering second leg from breakout sprint freestyler Garrett Gould to overhaul Florida and NC State and touch for silver as they claim their second consecutive title with a new Texas team record.
Worst Case
Will Modglin gets DQed in the 200 IM for the second year running as Baylor Nelson falls towards the bottom of the ‘A’ final, and Jonny Marshall beats Hubert Kos in the 200 back for the second time this season after winning the SEC title last month. Someone then jumps early on the 400 free relay, and with Jesus Gonzalez taking top spot in the platform for the Gators they complete a monumental comeback to snatch the title.
Florida
Best Case
In Josh Liendo, Jonny Marshall, and Jesus Gonzalez, the Gators win three individual events this evening. A monumental 400 free relay sees them snatch the win from ASU and, with Texas falling from seed for the third day in a row, Florida pip them to the title
Worst Case
Liendo is out-touched in the 100 free to break his three-year winning streak, and Jonny Marshall finishes 6th or lower in the 200 back final. Even before diving finishes or the 400 free relay takes to the pool, they are effectively out of the running for the title.
Indiana
Best Case
Owen McDonald finally gets his NCAA title in the 200 IM, and Josh Bey and Noah Cakir have solid swims to finish mid-pack behind him. Raekwon Noel and Kai van Westering move up in the 200 fly and 200 back finals respectively, and the 400 free relay lowers the school and Big Ten record of 2:45.08 which they set last year. Arizona State is kept in the rearview mirror as Indiana finish 3rd again after graduating a ton of scorers last summer.
Worst Case
All five ‘A’ finalist finish in the lower reaches of the ‘A’ final, and the 400 free relay finishes outside the top eight after a gruelling week. ASU make the most of the opportunity afforded by Indiana’s lack of diving points this week to snatch 3rd.
ASU
Best Case
Ilya Kharun wins the 200 fly, Jonny Kulow finishes on the podium in the 100 free, and the 400 free wins in a new NCAA record as they crack the 2:42 barrier. With only three scoring swims tonight, and those seeded 1st, 5th, and 1st, they are already close to their best-case scenario. A lot depends on how Indiana performs – if they can drop from seed in the 200 IM to start off the session, ASU is in with a chance of 3rd.
Worst Case
Kharun fails to win the 200 fly and Kulow finishes near the bottom of the 100 free ‘A’ final. Going into the 400 free relay needing an Indiana implosion to finish 3rd, they miss their new NCAA record but win their fourth relay of the week as they end up 4th overall.
Tennessee
Best Case
Bennett Greene finishes on the podium in the platform, Gui Caribe wins the 100 free, and Nick Simons drops time in the 200 back final after adding at SECs. 5th place could be a formality by the time the relay comes around, but the Volunteers could drop into the 2:43’s and make the podium if everything breaks right as they match their performance from last year and score more points – despite graduating World Record holder Jordan Crooks.
Worst Case
Gui Caribe misses the podium in his final individual race and Nick Simons finishes dead last in the 200 back final. Bennett Greene also falls down from his 3rd-place prelims performance, and with NC State moving up in their swims the 400 free relay becomes a head-to-head for 5th place. Losing out in that battle or DQing the relay sees them fall to 6th place, souring an otherwise successful meet
Cal
Best Case
Michigan’s Tyler Ray moves down a few spots in the 200 fly final and the Wolverines don’t quite hit on the 400 free relay, leaving them behind Cal in the battle for 7th as Joshua Thai moves up onto the podium on the Platform. Oh, and the entire ‘A’ final is DQed in the 400 free relay and Cal win with their 2:46.59 from this morning.
Worst Case
Michigan match their projections and sneak past Cal, for whom Josh Thai finishes low down in the Platform final. Cal finish not just outside the top two for the first time since 2009, but all the way down in 8th. There isn’t too much difference to the best case here – with no swims this evening, Cal is pretty locked into a battle for 7th.
NC State
Best Case
Arsenio Bustos and Daniel Diehl move way up in the 200 IM with Bustos making the podium and breaking 1:40, and Quintin McCarty drops again in a final to make the 100 free podium. With the 100 freestylers fired up after a slightly underwhelming morning, NC State run ASU close for the 400 free relay win and manage to overhaul Tennessee for 5th.
Worst Case
Bustos and Diehl are pretty much a wash with their morning swims in the 200 IM, and Quintin McCarty adds to place last in the 100 free final. With all four swimmers on the relay slightly off color, they add a couple of seconds and fall from 2nd to off the podium, with Tennessee out of sight and Michigan not too far behind the Wolfpack.
Michigan
Best Case
Tyler Ray makes the 200 fly podium and the 400 free relay sets a school record to finish in the top five. Jac Wilkening signs off with a huge relay split, and Michigan overhaul Cal for 7th overall, four spots and over 100 points higher than last year.
Worst Case
Tyler Ray finishes mid-pack in the 200 fly final, and Ole Eidam has another poor relay split as the Wolverines add a second to finish outside the points entirely. Virginia, who have a scorching session of their own, manage to overtake Michigan for 8th despite having had a 53 point gap at the start of the day.
Virginia
Best Case
Maximus Williamson, Thomas Heilman, and one of David King and Aikins all win their individua events tonight, before a slow final relay heat sees Virginia crack 200 points. With Cal mathematically too far away to catch, closing the gap to the top eight to within single digits would be a phenomenal return.
Worst Case
Williamson has a poor 200 IM to finish off the podium, and King and Aikins fall down the ranks in the 200 back. The final heat of the 400 free relay is a fast one and Virginia don’t move up as they finish 10th, placing 9th overall but a ways behind the top eight.
Stanford
Best Case
Misha Andriyuk moves up to take the win on the Platform, giving Stanford an NCAA title to go with Henry McFadden‘s podium in the 200 free.
Worst Case
Misha Andriyuk falls to 8th in the platform final again after doing so last year. With none of the teams behind close enough to have any possibility of overhauling the Cardinal they say in the top ten but a strong evening for Virginia outlines just how far behind the very top teams Stanford is.
Read the full story on SwimSwam: 2026 Men’s NCAAs: What Is The Best & Worst Case Scenario For Each Team In The Current Top Ten?
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