Last night, I was able to break the good news that the Chicago Cubs had extended second baseman Nico Hoerner just a few months before he was set to hit free agency (one of those “big boy” moves I was giving them credit for earlier).
Later in the night, Jesse Rogers was able to add to my news, reporting that the deal was for six years. Unfortunately, he didn’t have any details on the cost of the deal, terms that took over 24 hours to finally come out via Jeff Passan (first to report $) and Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman (first on the deferrals and details).
© Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn ImagesNico Hoerner Extension Deals
Bottom line: This extension is nominally six years and $141 million. And the deferrals will reduce that down to “the mid $130Ms.” So for right now, let’s just think about this as six years and $135M.
On its face, that is a substantial sum for Nico Hoerner, but it doesn’t really surprise me too much that the Cubs had to play near-free agent prices, seeing as he was … very near free agency. Plus, that’s a manageable $22.5 CBT hit (luxury tax).
But most importantly, this is just a completely fine use of funds for a player who is still 28 years old and does as many things well as Nico Hoerner does (to say nothing of the value he provides the organization or how beloved he is by fans).
Last season, Nico Hoerner slashed .297/.345/.394 (109 wRC+), and was worth 4.8 fWAR. And according to Baseball Reference’s version of WAR, which is a little heavier on defensive value, Hoerner registered 6.2 WAR, eighth most in ALL OF BASEBALL among position players, tied with Juan Soto and Corey Seager.
And on top of everything else, there’s the way he performed down the stretch. From July 29 on, Nico Hoerner was a fundamentally different, even better hitter than he’s ever been before: .313/.361/.431 (123 wRC+). The average was a touch higher, the OBP was better, and he was actually, finally slugging above .400 (substantially so).
If he were to perform like that for a full season, he would be worth WAY more money in free agency. Frankly, even if he just repeated his overall performance from last season (which, I mean, he’s still in the middle of his prime, I don’t think that’s out of the question), he’d get an even bigger bag than this in free agency, especially because some teams might value him as a shortstop. That’s just anothe small reason why getting this deal done before other teams had a chance to woo him was smart.
So is it a big payday? Yes, of course. There’s really no way around that. But is it defensible? Absolutely. This was a good use of money for the Cubs, and I’m just as happy about the extension today as I was yesterday. Oh, and don’t forget, the Cubs STILL have a ton of money coming off the books this winter: Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, and Carson Kelly … just to name SOME.
And at the end of the day, the Cubs now have their infield — Alex Bregman, Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, and Michael Busch — locked up for the next five years (including this season). They also have Pete Crow-Armstrong locked up long-term and Miguel Amaya, too. It’s just a very good core of positional players. And on the pitching side, they have, at least, Cade Horton, Edward Cabrera, Justin Steele, and Javier Assad locked up for multiple years.
This is a clear window of expected competitiveness, and extending Nico Hoerner is a big part of that. Plus, Hoerner’s defense and baserunning (and ability to play shortstop) provide a very nice floor.
So, once again, I am happy to give flowers to the Cubs, who did what it took to get this done. Nico Hoerner is going to be a part of this team for (effectively) his entire career.
Note: There haven’t been any reports of a no-trade clause, but eventually, once he reaches ten years of service time, he will have 10-5 no-trade rights with the Cubs. So he’ll get his no-trade eventually (so long as they don’t deal him before that).
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