We are baby steps into the long and winding marathon. But the Diamondbacks already have a magic number.
84 victories.
That was good enough for a wild card berth in 2023, when Arizona made a surprise run to the World Series. And it’s one more victory than the Reds needed for a wild card berth in 2025.
Fortunately, the bar has lowered significantly since the advent of three wild card playoff teams in each league. It’s also a tall task for a team missing its ace (Corbin Burnes), its two top relievers (A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez) and its starting left fielder (Lourdes Gurriel Jr.).
Here’s how they get it done:
The first milepost of the season is May 3rd, when a brutal early-season schedule finally lightens up. After the first 32 games, the Diamondbacks need at least 12 victories and sit no worse than eight games under .500.
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They need their starting rotation to dominate. In 2025, Diamondbacks starters ranked 23rd in Major League Baseball in ERA (4.50) and opponent’s batting average (.252). Three starters finished the season with an ERA above 4.80. That’s unacceptable.
Zac Gallen — Opening Day starter by default — needs to turn back the clock with his juiced-up fastball. Eduardo Rodriguez must bring the same kind of heat and energy he brought to Team Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic. And Merrill Kelly needs to stay healthy, free of fluke cramping and nerve issues in his back.
Somehow, the rotation was good enough to post the sixth-best total of quality starts. But the bullpen was a disaster, ranking 27th out of 30 teams in ERA (4.82). They blew a league-high 29 save opportunities. They set an MLB record with 18 different pitchers recording at least one save.
Bullpens are hard to construct and impossible to predict. It’s the only weakness in Mike Hazen’s terrific tenure as general manager. They need Brandyn Garcia and Kade Strowd to get right in Reno and join the parent club as soon as possible. They need Paul Sewald to buy them time in the closer’s role. They need Kevin Ginkel and Ryan Thompson to be impact arms.
The Diamondbacks’ offense ranked sixth in MLB in 2025. They boast a fearsome threesome at the top of their lineup with Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte and Geroldo Perdomo. But their new corner infielders are clearly on the decline. Can Nolan Arenado and the platooning Carlos Santana/Pavin Smith approach the 47 home runs and 146 RBI provided by Geno Suarez and Josh Naylor before they were peddled at the trading deadline?
Either way, it’s clear Jordan Lawlar needs to find his stride in 2026, representing a dangerous threat at the bottom of the lineup, just like Perdomo did so brilliantly in 2023. They also need an unsung hero, somebody to contribute more than expected, like Alek Thomas, Ryan Waldschmidt or Tyler Locklear.
The Diamondbacks will add significant pieces to the mix in the back half of the season. With all the talent returning from injury, their trade deadline maneuvers are already done. They just need to be alive and within arm’s length of the postseason when they return, allowing them to finish with a flourish.
The Diamondbacks proved in 2023 that magic happens in Major League Baseball. If you only give it a chance.
Reach Bickley at dbickley@arizonasports.com. Listen to Bickley & Marotta mornings from 6 a.m. – 10 a.m. on Arizona Sports.
Follow @danbickley
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