The damage wreaked by Donald Trump‘s war on Iran may now be so extensive and wide-reaching that its repercussions will be felt globally in the months and years, analysts have said.
The US President appears to be scrambling for an off-ramp to end the war he and Israel launched nearly a month ago, claiming that members of his administration are now negotiating a ceasefire with Iran after “productive conversations”.
Iran denounced the talks as “fake news” and accused the President of negotiating with himself.
It is believed, however, that some form of indirect talks are taking place, with reported suggesting they are being mediated by Pakistan.
Regardless of whether the US and Iran can come to an agreement to cease hostilities, however, the damage to Iran, the wider region and the world may already be so great that the consequences of Trump’s war will continue into the months and years ahead.
Economic pain ahead – especially for Britain
Iran’s scorched-earth campaign targeting energy could have damaging long-term consequences for the entire world, including Britain, in the form of slower economic growth, higher energy bills and even the possibility of a recession.
Iran has used drones and missiles against oil and gas infrastructure in Gulf countries, and threatened and attacked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil and gas travels, spiking oil prices to over $100 (£75) a barrel, up from about $73 (£55) before the war.
Dr Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in international security at King’s College London and senior fellow at the Herzl Center for Israel Studies, said that Iran hopes “that if they can do things that affect the British and American taxpayers in terms of the price of fuel and energy, the US will not be inclined six months down the line to start another conflict”.
Oil and gas prices have surged amid the Iran war and commerical ships have been targeted by Tehran in the Strait of Hormuz (Photo: Royal Thai Navy/AFP.Analysts at the US energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie have warned that $200 (£150) a barrel is not inconceivable, while Moody’s Analytics has raised its recession outlook to 48.6 per cent, with its chief economist Mark Zandi saying a recession is “a real threat”.
Forecasts for the UK’s economic growth have already been wound down in light of the conflict. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said today that the UK economy would grow by just 0.7 per cent this year, compared with its last forecast, made in December, of 1.2 per cent – partly because of the attacks.
The UK’s economy is expected to be damaged more than any other industrialised nation, the OECD said
With global stock markets disrupted, Trump’s claim Monday that he had held “productive talks” with Iran caused the price of oil to drop. But unless he can secure a lasting ceasefire that protects Gulf energy facilities and reopens the Strait, the markets are unlikely to keep calm.
What happens next depends on how long the war will last, if the Strait can be reopened, and what happens after the fighting stops.
Collapse and chaos
Fears are growing that US and Israeli hits to the Iranian regime could prompt the state’s collapse, resulting in “the Balkanisation of Iranian society, the emergence of various militia groups and civil war”, Pinfold said.
Civil war could also be triggered by attempted uprisings by ethnic groups inside the country including the Kurds who would be seen as a “foreign occupying power” by many Iranians. The i Paper revealed this week that more than a dozen Britons have travelled to join a possible Kurdish uprising.
Iran’s internal challenges will be compounded by extensive damage to critical infrastructure and widespread population displacement.
Members of Komala of the Toilers of Kurdistan, a Kurdish Iranian dissident group, at their military bases hidden among the mountains in Iraq (Photo: Sedat Suna/Getty)Between 600,000 and one million Iranian households internally displaced. It is not yet clear how many will be able to return to their homes or where they will otherwise be forced to live.
Rebuilding will also be slowed by the risk of unexploded bombs hidden under rubble. Mine clearance organisation MAG say they are “gravely concerned” about the use of explosive weapons in populated areas, which can “threaten lives and slow recovery for years to come.”
Meanwhile, that instability could lead to greater power for Iran’s infamous military forces the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and a more militarised, dangerous and lethal Iran.
Dr Burcu Ozcelik, Senior Research Fellow for Middle East Security at the Royal United Serv ices Institute, said that this had already begun. Although Iranian institutions including the president, assembly of experts, and the still to be seen Supreme Leader elect were still in place, “wartime planning seems to have shifted responsibility for the regime more toward the IRGC”.
“The regime is already changing,” she said. “This is a function of unprecedented external military pressure and loss of leadership.”
Whatever form the leadership emerges from the conflict in, the “longer term impact is yet to be felt” within Iran.
“Food security, water security and economic strains that any rump regime will have to address and likely struggle to do so effectively,” she said. “We need to be prepared for change that may take years, not weeks or months.”
“A ‘defeated’ Iran may not stay defeated forever. But the rollback of its military capabilities, layered onto severe pre-existing economic strain, will narrow the choices available to whatever post-Khamenei leadership emerges,” Ozcelik added.
Nuclear risk
A fragmented Iranian state could increase the risk of nuclear disasters, with the possibilty of militia groups obtaining nuclear material.
It is not clear how much of Iran’s nuclear programme – from its uranium supplies to enrichment facilities to nuclear scientists – remains after US and Israeli strikes. However, last April it had a stockpile of enriched uranium that gave it enough material for around six to eight nuclear weapons, according to intelligence firm Janes.
Daniel Salisbury, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) warned that any erosion of the regime’s control would “heighten risks from uncontrolled nuclear materials, technology and information”.
“If the Iranian government does fall, leading to an internal struggle for power, nuclear material and facilities could become pawns in a broader power struggle,” he said. “Sub-state actors, such as elements of the old regime or factions of the powerful IRGC, could seize materials and technology as bargaining chips.
“Alternatively, chaos could allow non-state actors to seize materials. Past experiences show that these could be extremists with political or ideological motivations.”
Instability spreads across the region
With an unstable Iran comes an unstable Middle East. While Iran has suffered serious setbacks to its military capabilities, it can continue to launch and sell cheap and easy-to-produce Shahed drones almost indefinitely, Pinfold said – leaving the region’s long-term security in question.
Pinfold said that the war was “the Gulf states’ worst nightmare”. “What the Gulf states really fear is that Iran will lose its command-and-control abilities over these various militias. Even if Dubai isn’t being hit by drones on a weekly basis, the fact that there’s still drones and missiles flying around on their doorstep would be enough to really hurt investment in their economies.”
Ozcelik said that some Gulf monarchies feared that “a surviving rump regime in Iran would be undeterred in its future aggression against the Gulf, knowing that lashing out against a range of targets, including water and energy infrastructure, stripped the Gulf of its veneer of stability.”
An explosion in the Fujairah industrial zone on 3 March after Iranian strikes on the UAE (Photo: Fadel Senna/ AFP via Getty Images)The conflict may also have caused damage to the US’s relationships with Gulf countries, which have been attacked because of their hosting American bases.
“Gulf states are frustrated at being drawn into a war they neither chose nor controlled, and that frustration is being channelled, in different ways and with different intensity, towards both Israel and the United States,” said Ozcelik.
Russia may use the conflict as an opportunity to deepen its ties to the Middle East. “One thing is definitely true: the Gulf Cooperation Council countries will be courted by many sides in the aftermath of the war, including the US and Russia,” Ozcelik said.
However, Ozcelik said that they would be unlikely to move away from the US altogether. “Through the bad, the good and the ugly, US security guarantees failed to deliver full deterrence. Iran attacked anyway. But without that shield, the Gulf would have been significantly worse off,” she said. “The point is that US-backed air and missile defence is helping to blunt the damage, even if it has not prevented escalation outright.”
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