Spring has officially arrived in the Chicago area, and while the season has seen a temperature rollercoaster, what could summer look like?
While the start of meteorological summer is still just over two months away, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ has offered a glimpse of what it could see happening once that season begins.
Coloring the model guidance is the growing likelihood of an El Niño pattern developing in the Pacific Ocean, which won’t have massive impacts on the Midwest but could certainly influence the weather, especially if it’s a strong pattern in 2026.
So what is the NWS anticipating will happen in the Chicago area?
In its latest guidance, which was released in recent days, most of the country could see above-average temperatures during meteorological summer, especially in the western half of the continental U.S., but the Midwest’s outlook is a bit more up in the air, with “equal chances” of above or below-average temps.
What’s noteworthy about the projections is how they change heading into the second half of summer. Between July and August, the heat wave in the western U.S. is expected to continue, along with the northeastern U.S., but the upper Midwest, including the Chicago area, could see below-average temperatures:
That pattern continues into the final projection for the summer, with that circle of cooler temps still placed squarely around Lake Michigan.
As fall begins and winter nears, the expectation slowly starts to shift, with models leaning toward above-average temperatures late in the year and into early 2027.
All of those projections would fit with the impacts of an El Niño weather pattern. Summers during those patterns tend to be slightly cooler and slightly wetter than normal in Illinois according to the University of Illinois.
Winters in those patterns tend to be warmer and drier, according to experts at the university.
According to the latest guidance from the CPC, an El Niño Watch has been issued, with an increasing likelihood of the weather pattern emerging over the summer.
There is a 1-in-3 chance that El Niño could intensify in the fall and winter, which would drive up temperatures and drive down precipitation in the Midwest, including in the Chicago area.
The Climate Prediction Center releases new guidance each week, so stay tuned as summer arrives for more information.
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