By Sam Blacker on SwimSwam
All data here is taken prior to any scratches
Among the changes brought in by the new NCAA qualification system is one that may shape swimmers’ event focus in future seasons – not every event is equal.
The final row to qualify for NCAAs can be different for each event, depending on the number of conference champions who hit the automatic qualification time. The effect of that could influence the events in which swimmers try to qualify – if only the fastest 23 swimmers in the NCAA make the meet in the 200 back, but the fastest 26 do so in the mile, the event with over 15% more non-conference champion spots may be seen as softer.
The men’s 50 free has received most attention, due to the fact that the final swimmer in was on row 19 – four rows higher than the final row that some other events got into the meet. While the women’s side does not have an outlier quite as extreme as that, there are slight differences in the row on which the cutline falls.
Before we can get into that, we need to look at a slight quirk of the cutline this year – one that effectively gives us two to consider. The change between the two is miniscule on the men’s side, limited to just two events, but was far more apparent for the women.
“Apparent” Cutline
The time of the final non-conference champion (NCC) swimmer to qualify in an event. This is the time that an NCC swimmer would need to have beaten to qualify for the meet.“True” Cutline
The greater of: The time of the final swimmer to qualify who would still have qualified if they had not won their conference championship The time of the final non-conference champion (NCC) swimmer to qualify in an event This is the time that a current conference champion would have had to hit to qualify for the meet, in the instance that they had not won their conference and the winner from their conference had not hit the automatic qualifying time Examples include Nick Finch (50 free, row 20)Consider this example from last year: the 100 fly has nine swimmers hit the ‘A’ cut, while the 100 back has just four do so. The 100 back is “topped up” to also have nine swimmers, so that by the time you are adding the #10 row, it will be the #10 swimmer in each event.
Now consider this year. There are 11 automatic qualifiers entered in the 100 fly, the same as in the 100 back, but the 200 IM has just six entered. However, those are not the top swimmers in each event this year, so when you go to top up the 200 IM you are adding the #2, #3, #5, #6, and #7 swimmers in the NCAA this season.
Even among the 100 back and 100 fly all is not equal – the 12th swimmer added to the 100 back is the #1 seed, Will Modglin, while in the 100 fly it is the #4 seed Luca Urlando (who has now scratched out of the meet with a minor injury).
Go down further and the 100 fly and 100 back even themselves out, with the final swimmer in coming from line 23. For the 200 IM though it does not, with Jordan Tiffany on line 25 the last man in, on the apparent cutline of 1:42.65.
What does that actually mean? If you were the 24th-fastest entrant in the 200 IM and didn’t win your conference title, you qualified. If you were the 24th-fastest entrant in the 100 back or 100 fly and didn’t win your conference title, you didn’t (both Rian Graham and Matt Bittner missed out on the meet).
There are a couple of events where we need to consider the true cutline. In the 200 back Adriano Arioti was on row 26, the first row out after the conference champions were taken out – of which he was one. He would have qualified for the meet regardless of whether his 1:39.60 came in the Ivy League final or in a dual meet. Nick Finch, on line 20 with a 18.82 in the 50 free, was in the same boat.
Technically then the “true” cutline in those events comes out slightly slower – but only moves a single row. Importantly, the “true” cutline is still at different points for different events. Which row this falls on provides the most accurate insight into how much each event was affected, and which one was the most difficult to qualify for this year.
Number Of Entered Swimmers Under The Cutline
The 50 free is clearly the most competitive event, with the final auto-qualified row coming from line 19, four rows lower than the next-lowest. Only one event comes in with a row above 25 (500 free), with all 11 other events somewhere between 23 and 25.
Two events move up a row if we consider the “true” cutline, the 50 free and 200 back. That puts the latter onto line 26, with Harvard’s Arioti one of four conference champions slower than the “apparent” cutline but sitting himself on the “true” cutline.
Under the old system the cutline in all events would have sat between rows 28 and 29 on the pre-selection psych sheets.
Number Of Entered Swimmers Under The Cutline vs Cutline Changes (%) From 2025
The number of entered swimmers under the cutline in freestyle does seem to follow a trend for the 50-500, rising from row 19-26 and the change from the 2025 cutline rising from -1.10% to -0.11%. However, elsewhere the cutline does not seem to have the row of the final qualified swimmer as a main factor – in breaststroke the change was smaller by 0.4% for the 100 than the 200, even though the final row was #25 for the 100 and #26 for the 200.
Cutline Changes From 2025 to 2026 (%)
The vast majority of events were faster this season, with only two requiring a slower time to qualify in 2026 than in 2025. The three stroke 200s were all much faster this year, but the 50 free is clearly the biggest mover in terms of percentage.
There is little difference between the “true” and “apparent” cutline – a significant number of conference championships who qualified were outside the top 30 in their event. Nick Finch and Adriano Arioti, both from the Ivy League (Yale and Harvard respectively) were the only two under the “true” cutline but not the “apparent”, while a further four (Mikkel Lee(50 free), Yassin Abdelghany(50 free), Felix Jedbratt (100 fly), and Michael Phillips(200 breast)) were row #29 or better.
Number of Conference Champions In Each Event
The 50 free had the most entries from conference champions, driven by nine mid-major conferences sending a champion. Only three conference champions were under the 18.82 cutline – the Big Ten was won by Mikkel Lee in 18.90.
Like on the women’s side, the 200 IM has the fewest entries from conference champions. The SEC champion, Hubert Kos, went with the 200 back instead on the final day, while the Ivy League champion, Mitchell Schott, went with the 200 fly.
Number of Conference Champions Slower Than The Cutline In Each Event
The 500 free had only two champions entered slower than the cutline of 4:13.85, in the form of Wyoming’s Alex Metzler (4:16.20) and Navy’s Dean Jones (4:16.73). The 50 free had ten champions entered slower than the “apparent” cutline of 18.81, nine of those slower than the “true” cutline of 18.82 and seven slower than the old system cutline of 18.92.No other event had more than six.
Read the full story on SwimSwam: Men’s NCAAs 2026: Which Event Was The Most Difficult To Qualify In With The New AQ System?
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