Zach Crizer and Ryan Fagan make their 2026 predictions for major MLB awards in each league: MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and Comeback Player of the Year.
Last year, we gazed upon the prospect of predicting winners of the major MLB awards and decided it couldn’t be as simple as Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, rinse and repeat. We were wrong in failing to anoint them again, but three of our eight picks were correct.
The titans at the top of the sport are undeniable, and the aura of foregone conclusions extends to the pitching side with Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes lining up to defend dominant Cy Young Award campaigns. Still, nothing is truly a lock in baseball.
So Crizer and Fagan have put on the capes again and are back to forecast winners, and emerging dark horse contenders, for major MLB awards: MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year, plus Comeback Player of the Year.
AL MVP Award
Pick: Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
Someday, Judge will leave enough doubt for someone else to break through and win the AL MVP. His right-handed Barry Bonds impression has stymied Witt and Cal Raleigh in recent seasons despite their otherworldly performances, but banking on his absurd run continuing is starting to feel crazier than expecting it to end – or at least subside a bit.
Witt is the most obvious threat to Judge’s position player supremacy. A dazzling shortstop and baserunner who counted 23 home runs and a .501 slugging percentage as a down year, the face of the Royals franchise is just 25 years old and incredibly durable. This time around, a quest toward 10 WAR could be enough to win some hard-earned recognition.
Dark Horse: Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays wunderkind walloped 49 homers and significantly improved his defense at third base, all while playing half the season at 21 years old. As Tampa returns to a more normal situation at Tropicana Field, Caminero is the majors’ most imminent threat without hardware already on his mantle to put up a truly stupid home run total.
– Crizer
NL MVP Award
Pick: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
Let’s not overcomplicate this. If Ohtani stays healthy, he’s building on the second-most MVP awards in MLB history. The only two players capable of staying in the conversation with a full season of Ohtani are Juan Soto and Ronald Acuna Jr., and even they are long shots.
Oh, it doesn’t hurt that Ohtani and the Dodgers are seeking a World Series three-peat.
Since 2021, Aaron Judge has earned three MVP awards and Shohei Ohtani four. Judge is top-three in MLB in all six above statistics in the five-year span; Ohtani adds a 35-17 pitching record and 136 stolen bases in that time period.Dark Horse: Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
In the off chance Ohtani misses a stretch of time, that opens the door quite a bit. Don’t be surprised if Carroll – who has led the NL in triples each of the past three seasons – sprints through that door. He missed 19 games last year but still posted his first 30/30 season (31 homers, 32 stolen bases) and hit career highs with a 140 OPS+ and 6.5 WAR. A broken bone in his hand this spring was reason for pause, but he recovered rapidly and started spraying high exit-velo shots all over the field soon after his return.
– Fagan
AL Cy Young Award
Pick: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
Let’s not overcomplicate this: If Skubal stays healthy (and in the AL all season, assuming his Tigers don’t falter and sell at the trade deadline), he’s probably going to wrap up his three-peat of the AL Cy Young Award.
Unlike Ohtani, there’s direct competition: Garrett Crochet was incredible for the Boston Red Sox last year and will push his fellow lefty in the Cy Young chase all season. But it’s not like Skubal has even peaked. He won the 2024 AL Cy Young, then went out in 2025 and posted a better ERA, better FIP, more strikeouts, fewer walks, fewer hits allowed and a better WHIP.
Sheesh.
Dark Horse: MacKenzie Gore, Texas Rangers
It’s not just that Gore had a proverbial change of scenery this offseason, going from a rebuilding Washington Nationals’ franchise to the Rangers. It’s that he’s now had a full spring watching and learning from Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi, which is the kind of learn-by-watching experience he never really got with the Nationals.
Gore has swing-and-miss stuff, as his 123.5 whiff+ was just a hair below deGrom’s 126.1 last year. Being with that two-time Cy Young Award winner plus big-market and postseason standout Eovaldi should help him learn to make the most of his raw stuff.
– Fagan
NL Cy Young Award
Pick: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers
As inevitable as he may seem, Skenes won’t win the Cy Young Award every year (probably).
Yamamoto elevated himself to legendary status in the World Series, and he could be making the “Best Pitcher In Baseball” conversation more than a two-man debate.
Yamamoto’s 60 raw value- was third in baseball among qualified starters last year, hot on the heels of Skenes and Skubal. His continued evolution will leave hitters looking for his (very good) fastball while sorting through an explosion of varying, well-commanded off-speed options.
The whole world knows just how good he can be. Now it’s time for the follow-up act.
Dark Horse: Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies
Luzardo just got better as his first season in Philadelphia went on. The lefty has always had electric stuff in his arm, but the Phillies helped him get more aggressive with attacking in the zone. His strike+ ranked fourth among qualified starters, and he was 13th in K/BB%, but that 3.79 overall number was 4.48 after the All-Star break. A dominant postseason stint and an offseason extension only reinforced the idea that more is possible.
– Crizer
AL Rookie of the Year
Pick: Samuel Basallo, Baltimore Orioles
The young Orioles’ catcher/designated hitter got his feet wet in the majors late last year. Expect a full arrival in 2026.
Still just 21, Basallo packs light-tower power – perhaps warehouse power is the correct term in Baltimore – and a minor-league track record to suggest he can get to it without running problematic batting averages. A key element of Baltimore’s attempt to bounce back, Basallo will have a big opportunity to make a big impact.
Dark Horse: Kazuma Okamoto, Toronto Blue Jays
He wasn’t the headliner of this winter’s NPB class, but Okamoto wound up getting the most guaranteed money. A corner infielder who will play most days at third base, Okamoto boasts a disciplined approach and a line-drive swing that could make him an impact bat right away.
NL Rookie of the Year
Pick: J.J. Wetherholt, St. Louis Cardinals
We had the chance to talk with longtime prospect evaluator Jim Callis (MLB Pipeline after a long career with Baseball America) about Wetherholt this offseason. “I think it’s gonna be one of those things,” Callis said, “that where 10 years from now, people will be asking, ‘How did this guy last seven picks in the draft?’”
Wetherholt has never had a college or pro season with an on-base percentage below .400. That batting eye, along with the power in his bat and speed in his legs, quickly changed the conversation in Cardinals spring training from “Will JJ make the opening day roster?” to “He should bat leadoff, shouldn’t he?” Wherever the poised prospect bats, he figures to be a key piece in the lineup in 2026 and for years beyond. “I think,” Callis said, “he could be a solid defender at second base while winning batting championships and hitting 20 homers a year.”
Dark Horse: Owen Caissie, Miami Marlins
Yes, he’s here because of the World Baseball Classic. You saw what he did, right? In five games – his Canada squad reached the quarterfinal round for the first time – the big lefty slugger had a 1.241 OPS with three doubles, a home run and five RBIs.
Last year in 99 Triple-A games for the Chicago Cubs, he popped 22 homers to go with a .386 on-base percentage and a .937 OPS. Traded to Miami as the key piece that sent Edward Cabrera this offseason, Caissie should get an opportunity to show he belongs in the bigs.
– Fagan
AL Comeback Player of the Year
Pick: Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros
A hand fracture and an ankle sprain limited Alvarez to 199 plate appearances last season, breaking a string of four consecutive seasons with 30-plus homers. When he’s healthy, he’s one of the best left-handed hitters in baseball (Ohtani is in his own league), and the Astros definitely need the 28-year-old back at his regular production to contend with the Seattle Mariners, Rangers and Athletics in the AL West.
Dark Horse: Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
The ultimate goal for Cole and the Yankees is to have him healthy when October arrives, so they’ll be super-cautious with bringing him back from Tommy John surgery in March 2025. While his progress has been encouraging this spring, the Yankees are reiterating that June is the most likely return date. That might not be enough time to win this award.
– Fagan
NL Comeback Player of the Year
Pick: Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
This award tends to go to great players who missed some time and then returned to their usual excellence. It’s not quite the source of intrigue that you might imagine. Last year’s winners were deGrom and Acuna.
If Wheeler, the Phillies ace and frequent Cy Young Award contender, returns early in the season from thoracic outlet syndrome as currently expected, he’ll be an instant favorite. Throw in the memorable story about how he kept the rib that was removed during surgery and you seemingly have a winner.
Dark Horse: Sean Manaea, New York Mets
One buoyant triumph, one lost season. That’s the left-handed starter’s tally in Queens to date, but the numbers behind his 5.64 ERA in an injury-limited 2025 say the productive rotation stalwart of 2024 is still very-much present. That could make for an easy (and loud) redemption narrative.
– Crizer
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