Ministers are braced for a prolonged energy crisis that could impact consumer bills for years and require far greater government support for households as a result of the ongoing war in Iran.
Iranian strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan liquified natural gas complex on Thursday morning have had devastating consequences on global gas prices, with QatarEnergy’s CEO warning repairs could take up to five years to complete.
The crisis was described by energy market traders as “apocalypse now” as Qatar supplies nearly a fifth of global Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) supplies, with Ras Laffan the world’s biggest field, stretching three times the size of Paris.
As a result, UK natural gas prices soared by more than 20 per cent on Thursday morning, with Brent crude oil jumping 8 per cent, before settling down later in the day.
Qatar attacks could spark a ‘race for LNG between Asia and Europe’
While the UK imports just 2 per cent of its gas from the Gulf, the shock to global supplies will have a knock-on effect on global gas prices, experts have warned.
Chief analyst at Montel Energy Analytics Tobias Federico told The i Paper that the strikes on Ras Laffan could spark a “race for LNG between Asia and Europe in the coming months”.
“Europe is approaching the time of year where it seeks to refill gas storage ahead of the winter,” Federico said. “In parallel, it seems likely there will be further attacks in the Gulf region. It’s likely that wholesale gas prices could roughly double to 120 EUR/MWh or around 300 pence per therm (UK) over the next three months.”
Damage to the site, coupled with the ongoing blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, has sent energy prices rocketing and is likely to dramatically alter Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s calculations for any household energy bill support.
Households protected for the next three months
Sir Keir Starmer issued a joint statement with the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan, that said: “We condemn in the strongest terms recent attacks by Iran on unarmed commercial vessels in the Gulf, attacks on civilian infrastructure including oil and gas installations, and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces.
“We express our deep concern about the escalating conflict. We call on Iran to cease immediately its threats, laying of mines, drone and missile attacks, and other attempts to block the strait to commercial shipping, and to comply with UN Security Council resolution 2817.”
Government officials have stressed that households will be protected from any energy price rises for the next three months thanks to the energy price cap.
But the watchdog, Ofgem, is due to review the cap in mid-May, with experts predicting a significant increase off the back of the turmoil in the Middle East.
Reeves has pledged to target support at the lowest income households in a bid to avoid offering the kind of blanket support under the Truss government in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which cost the exchequer £40bn over two years.
Treasury insiders told The i Paper that they are monitoring the situation in the Middle East on a daily basis and being kept up to date on the energy industry, ahead of making any decision on household support.
But one official admitted that the conflict will have an impact on inflation in the coming months and beyond.
No 10 modelling different scenarios
The i Paper understands the Government is not currently putting into place any emergency plans but nonetheless is modelling for different scenarios if the Straits of Hormuz – the key shipping lane through which around a fifth of the world’s oil flows – remain blocked for months or even years. Senior figures in the Government expressed hope Trump’s war in Iran is wrapped up as quickly as possible.
Energy industry sources said that while the official line is that it is “too early to tell” what impact the situation in Iran and the wider Gulf will have on energy prices but added the “longer it goes on, the more severe the effect will be”.
QatarEnergy’s chief executive Saad al-Kaabi said the Iranian strikes hit two of Qatar’s 14 LNG trains and one of its two gas-to-liquids facilities. The repairs will sideline 12.8 million tons per year of LNG for three to five years, he added.
It has forced the state-owned operator to cancel its contracts with Italy, Belgium, Korea and China, meaning demand for alternative sources of gas will only increase, pushing up prices further for importers, such as the UK, across the world.
The UK and Europe have become increasingly more reliant on LNG since cutting off ties with Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Laurent Segalen, a clean energy investment banker, told the Financial Times: “It is apocalypse now. The coming months for gas importers are going to be a bloodbath.”
National Gas said there were no immediate concerns about gas supplies to the UK. Around 75 per cent, comes from the North Sea and imports from Norway, plus imports from Europe.
It added that gas storage levels are high, and demand will fall with the summer.
But wholesale gas prices are set on the international market meaning local supply does not shield the UK from price shocks.
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