The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has created two problems. One is economic: using a mix of drones, missiles, mines and fast boats, Iran has disrupted the flow of oil and gas. The other is political: Donald Trump has demanded allies’ support to reopen the route, while Europe has hesitated.
How to solve both? There may be a way – though not one presented by Washington or Brussels, but by Kyiv.
Iran’s threat in Hormuz is layered: from “kamikaze” drone boats to anti-ship cruise missiles, aerial drones like the Shahed, and sea mines. Recent attacks – including drone strikes on ships and oil infrastructure – underline how central these systems have become to disrupting maritime traffic.
Naval escorts remain essential to protect shipping, but are not sufficient on their own. As the head of the International Maritime Organisation, Arsenio Dominguez, has warned, such measures alone are “not a long-term or sustainable solution”.
A sustainable solution requires a mix of capabilities: comprehensive surveillance to spot attacks before they happen, air patrols and ships to shoot down anything that is fired (like cruise missiles and air drones), and helicopters to protect against sea drones and commandos.
With the right capabilities, the West is likely to be able to reopen the Strait. The question is, if this war drags on, can it afford to?
A protective web of this scale needs significant resources. The last time the US protected the Strait, during Operation Earnest Will from 1987-88, it required 30 warships, air power, and special forces deployed for over a year. So defending the Strait is not only a question of capability but of cost, endurance, and the political appetite to sustain it.
These costs are exacerbated by modern drone warfare. Iranian Shaheds cost between $20,000 and $50,000; an Israeli Arrow interceptor costs around $2m, a US Patriot missile around $4m. At those prices, it’s a lot easier to make a thousand Shaheds than a thousand interceptors, and stockpiles of the latter are finite and reportedly under pressure. The challenge in Hormuz is no longer just naval power, but the economics of interception.
Ukraine offers part of the solution. Iranian drones and tactics – commonly used across the Strait – have been deployed and honed by Russia in Ukraine. This makes Ukraine an expert in fighting them. By necessity, Ukraine has become the world’s laboratory in developing the anti-drone capabilities required to keep Hormuz open: widespread battlefield surveillance, drone interception, and layered defence systems.
Ukraine has become highly adept at managing limited resources: its layered defence has, through necessity, prioritised using the cheapest option first, reserving limited numbers of high-cost interceptors for when they are truly needed. Ukraine can’t replace US power. But it can contribute meaningfully – and support it to function sustainably.
Ukraine could also help solve a European problem. Trump has asked Nato countries to provide support. On the one hand, they need the shipping lane open, and Nato may need US military help in future, for instance if Russia attacked Europe beyond Ukraine. On the other, many don’t see it as their fight and are wary of another Middle Eastern war with limited public support. Volodymyr Zelensky could offer a win-win.
Europe could step up without deploying ships. It could fund Ukrainian drones, facilitate technology transfer, or backfill critical stockpiles – like US Patriots – to allow Zelensky to send military systems and trainers.
This could also work for Ukraine. Though Trump has thus far rebuffed Zelensky’s efforts (the Ukrainian President is, he says, “the last person we need help from”), Europe could position Zelensky as useful, innovative, and – crucially – a partner rather than a burden. There is clearly a market for Kyiv’s offer – just ask the Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, who have or will welcome more than 200 Ukrainian anti-drone experts.
It’s worth saying that this won’t solve the problem overnight. Ukraine cannot offer a full solution; even the best tech cannot secure Hormuz on its own. The environment is different too. Ukraine’s battles are primarily land-based with dense target arrays (though their seaborne drones, used for surveillance, reconnaissance, mine countermeasures and patrol missions as well as kamikaze missions, are highly innovative). And there remain risks: US scepticism of a “junior” partner, sensitivities over technology transfer, and overpromising while needing to fight their own war.
But a significant opportunity remains. In a protracted battle for this key shipping lane, success may hinge not only on who has the most ships, but who has learned how to defeat a $30,000 drone without firing a $4m missile. On that, few are more battle-tested than Ukraine.
Europe would love to find a solution. Given the chance, it could take out two birds with one drone.
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