Welcome to March Madness, y’all!
The First Four in Dayton provided plenty of excitement, especially with the Texas Longhorns winning in thrilling fashion against Will Wade’s NC State squad.
We had a heroic shot from Tramon Mark. We had Charles Barkley and Dick Vitale talking about God knows what throughout the broadcast. We had Sean Miller losing his mind on an assistant coach (and rightfully so).
March never disappoints.
Now the real madness begins, though. The next 4 days are the best 4 days in sports, in this humble writer’s opinion.
So let’s dive into how I filled out my bracket this year.
NOTE: There’s a lot of debate about whether it’s OK to fill out multiple brackets or if you have to enter the same bracket into every pool/contest. My take is you can enter as many brackets as you want, but you can only pick 1 to talk about. I don’t want to hear about the 30 brackets you filled out. Pick 1 bracket and that’s the bracket you can discuss with me.
Alright, let’s start with the East.
East Region
I didn’t pick a single upset in Round 1 in the East. There’s too much star power for the top seeds. I mean, how do you bet against Tom Izzo in Round 1? Bill Self and Darryn Peterson should be good to avoid an upset from a dangerous Cal Baptist squad. I don’t think Northern Iowa, with the third-slowest pace in Division I (per KenPom) can stop Rick Pitino and the Red Storm.
Round 2 provides more chalk. I really wanted to have Louisville going all the way to the Elite Eight, but with news breaking on Wednesday that Mikel Brown Jr. won’t play in Round 1, I think the Cardinals barely avoid an upset in Round 1 against USF. Brown is a dynamic player and his looming absence forced me to readjust my picks at the last minute.
Nothing’s going to stop me from picking Duke to make it to the Final Four out of this bracket, though. Cam Boozer is dominant, and the Blue Devils have the depth to advance to Indianapolis.
Will Duke advance to the Final Four? Here’s what Kalshi says about the Blue Devils:
Prediction Markets Men's March Madness Final Four Qualifiers Learn more about Prediction Markets Kalshi Arizona 54% Michigan 54% Duke 53% Florida 35% Houston 30% Iowa St. 24% Illinois 23% Purdue 21% UConn 15% Kansas 6% PredictSouth Region
Now we head to the South Region, where the reigning-champion Florida Gators lurk as the No. 1 seed. This is far from an easy path for Todd Golden and company, however.
No. 2-seed Houston looms large in this portion of the bracket, as the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight will be played in… Houston. That would be a tough draw for the Gators. But I don’t think we’ll see a rematch of last year’s title game at all.
That’s because I like Illinois to spoil the party. Yes, the Illini have been frustratingly inconsistent down the stretch, but I think they have too much size for the Cougars to handle.
Florida wins a rematch against Vanderbilt to advance to the Elite Eight before taking down the Illini to head back to the Final Four.
Also of note, I have Texas A&M pulling off a minor upset in Round 1. Saint Mary’s wants to slow teams down to a grinding, methodical pace. The Aggies won’t let them. If A&M makes a few 3s early, I’m not sure the Gaels have the firepower to make a comeback.
Will Florida repeat as the national champion? Kalshi gives the Gators a 10% chance as things stand now:
Prediction Markets 2026 College Basketball Champion? Learn more about Prediction Markets Kalshi Duke 20% Arizona 18% Michigan 18% Florida 11% Houston 7% Iowa St. 5% Purdue 5% UConn 4% Illinois 4% Kansas 2% PredictWest Region
Alright, now it’s time for some proper madness. The West is my chaos region.
The first round is pretty chalky, outside of my homer pick of my alma mater, Mizzou, to take down Miami in St. Louis. What a fortunate location draw that was for Dennis Gates and company! Almost makes up for the NCAA consistently screwing Mizzou on literally everything else.
Elsewhere, I have BYU and Arkansas making the Elite Eight as 6- and 4-seeds, respectively. BYU has arguably the best player in the tournament in AJ Dybantsa, who I would take No. 1 overall in the NBA Draft. That matters in March.
I also don’t trust Purdue and Matt Painter the further into the tournament we get. I think the Boilermakers used up their March Madness magic in their run to the Big Ten Tournament title.
Arizona-Arkansas is probably the game I spent the most time thinking about in the entire tournament. I just can’t pick against Darius Acuff Jr. at this stage. Add in the way Meleek Thomas, Billy Richmond III and Trevon Brazile have played down the stretch and I like John Calipari to lead the Hogs to Indy for the Final Four.
Midwest Region
I have my biggest upset of Round 1 in this bracket, picking 12-seed Akron to win against 5-seed Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are without JT Toppin, which is a huge loss. Christian Anderson also hurt himself in the Big 12 Tournament as the league decided it was a good idea to have elite athletes playing basketball on a glass court (so dumb).
Anderson should be back, but if he’s not at 100%, Akron is dangerous. I toyed with putting the Zips into the Sweet 16, especially since Alabama will almost certainly be without Aden Holloway after his recent arrest (he’s not with the team currently). But I think Labaron Philon Jr. can carry the Tide kicking and screaming into the Sweet 16 before the magic runs out.
In the bottom half of the region, I like Tennessee to make a bit of a run with Nate Ament healthy. No, that didn’t help against Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament, but I think the combo of Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Ament will be too much for an 11-seed and then probably Virginia to handle.
However, Rick Barnes and company will be denied of their first-ever trip to the Final Four by a gritty Iowa State team. The Cyclones are an incredibly dangerous team entering this tournament. So dangerous, in fact, that I have Iowa State shutting down 1-seed Michigan to advance to Indianapolis.
Final Four
Florida-Duke might end up being the game of the tournament. Florida came up just short during nonconference play at Cameron Indoor, losing to the Blue Devils 67-66 in a true road game.
Both of these teams are better since then, but the Gators’ guards have improved substantially since that early season tilt. The difference maker this time around, though, will be Rueben Chinyelu, who has the size and physicality necessary to limit Cam Boozer (as no one on the planet outside of maybe Victor Wembanyama has the ability to fully shut down Boozer).
It’ll be a brutal, physical, back-and-forth game, but I like Xaivian Lee to knock down a clutch 3 to win it for the Gators.
On the other side of the bracket, Arkansas’s dream run comes to an end at the hands of Iowa State. That game will be a true “unstoppable force vs. immovable object” matchup. Arkansas has the 5th-best offensive rating, per KenPom, while Iowa State checks in at No. 4 defensively.
Cyclones veteran guard Tamin Lipsey manages to force a couple of uncharacteristic Acuff turnovers late and Iowa State sneaks into the title game.
In that title game, Florida simply plays with too much pace and has too much size in the interior for the Cyclones to handle. Alex Condon and Tommy Haugh lead the way and the Gators cut down the nets once again, becoming just the second team to repeat as champions multiple times (UCLA under John Wooden being the other).
Let the Madness begin!
How I filled out my 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket Saturday Down South.
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