We look ahead to Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League last-16 second leg at Camp Nou with our Barcelona vs Newcastle prediction and preview. Can Eddie Howe’s men spring a surprise, or will the hosts reach the quarter-finals?
Barcelona vs Newcastle Key Stats
Barcelona are expected to progress to the last eight of the UEFA Champions League, winning against Newcastle in 56.8% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations. Barcelona have won both of their previous home games against Newcastle United in the competition. Newcastle are unbeaten in their last six Champions League games (W3 D3), their longest-ever run without defeat in the competition.This Champions League last-16 tie between Barcelona and Newcastle United is finely poised heading into the second leg, thanks to Hansi Flick’s side snatching a last-gasp draw at St. James’ Park last week.
Barcelona were far from their best on their return to Tyneside – having beaten Newcastle 2-1 away in the group stage – and had Lamine Yamal to thank as he scored a penalty with the last kick of the game to level things up ahead of the second leg.
Harvey Barnes had given Newcastle the lead late on after the hosts had been the better side for large parts, but a famous victory was just beyond Eddie Howe’s men.
And history would suggest that the 96th-minute spot-kick from Yamal could come back to haunt Newcastle.
When drawing the first leg away from home, Barcelona have progressed from each of their last 10 Champions League knockout-stage ties.
Juventus were the last to eliminate the Blaugrana in such circumstances in the 2002-03 quarter-finals; after a 1-1 away draw in the first leg, Barça lost the second 2-1 at home.
Back at Camp Nou, Barcelona are a daunting prospect, and they’ve scored in each of their last 16 home games in the Champions League, netting 50 goals in that time (3.1 per game). They’ve won their last three at home by an aggregate score of 12-3.
Flick will be determined to see an improvement, no matter what, after watching his side only manage two shots on target in the first leg. They did edge the expected goals (xG) battle (1.42 to 1.3), but their total was largely inflated by Yamal’s penalty (0.79 xG).
Despite having a relatively quiet game in Newcastle, Yamal will surely be key to Barcelona’s plans if they are to get the job done. The youngster has 12 goal involvements in his last 11 home matches in the Champions League (six goals, six assists), but this will be his first time stepping out onto the Camp Nou turf in UEFA’s flagship competition.
Raphinha will also be keen to have a more telling impact this time around after managing just one off-target attempt in the reverse fixture. The Brazilian did score a hat-trick in Sunday’s 5-2 home win over Sevilla in La Liga, though, albeit that included two penalties.
Raphinha has had a hand in 18 goals in 15 Champions League home games for Barcelona (nine goals, nine assists). Of players with 10+ home appearances for the club in the competition, only Lionel Messi (1.45) has a higher goal involvement per-90 average than the former Leeds winger (1.35).
But Newcastle have momentum heading into this game as they are unbeaten in their last six European games (W3 D3) and are looking to win consecutive away matches in the competition for the first time following their 6-1 victory over Qarabag in the play-offs. They also beat Chelsea 1-0 at Stamford Bridge on Saturday in the Premier League.
The draw between these two last Tuesday did mark the 12th time an English side had failed to beat Barcelona in the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie, with only three of the previous 11 progressing to the next round – Chelsea in 2004-05 (last 16), Manchester United in 2007-08 (semi-final) and Liverpool in 2018-19 (semi-final).
Newcastle attempted 16 shots last week, and though they only hit the target with four of those, they also struck the woodwork. It was the 25th time they have done so in all competitions this term.
Barnes thought he had scored what would’ve been a deserved winner in the 86th minute, and Howe will be looking to him for a spark once more. Only Kylian Mbappé (14), Anthony Gordon (12) and Julián Alvarez (10) have been directly involved in more Champions League goals this season than Barnes (9 – 6 goals, 3 assists).
But it was Lewis Hall who Barcelona struggled to keep quiet. No player on either side created more chances (five), made more defensive line-breaking passes (three) or won possession more times (seven) than him in the first leg.
As for team news, the hosts will be without Jules Koundé, Frenkie de Jong, Alejandro Balde and Andreas Christensen through injury.
Newcastle have been suffering from a sickness bug that saw Gordon start last week’s game on the bench, though he returned to the starting lineup to score the winner at Chelsea at the weekend. Sandro Tonali missed the game but is expected to be back on Wednesday. However, Bruno Guimarães, Fabian Schär and Lewis Miley will all be absent with injuries.
Barcelona vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
Barcelona have won both of their previous home games against Newcastle in the Champions League, beating them 1-0 in November 1997 and 3-1 in December 2002.
Newcastle, meanwhile, have lost five of their six away games against Spanish sides in all competitions, with this their first since a 2-1 loss at Deportivo La Coruña in the 2005 UEFA Intertoto Cup.
The only exception in this run was a 3-0 win at Mallorca in the 2003-04 UEFA Cup.
Newcastle have faced Barcelona six times before in Europe, but their only victory came in the first clash, 3-2 at home in the group stage in September 1997. Barça won each of the next four before the draw in the first leg.
Barcelona vs Newcastle Prediction
Barcelona are strong favourites to come out on top back on home soil, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 56.8% chance of victory that would send them through to the quarter-finals.
Newcastle have a 21.9% chance of coming out on top, while the chance of another draw, which would send the tie to extra time, sits at 21.3%.
Barça are favourites overall to go through in the tie, doing so in 67.1% of simulations.
Barcelona vs Newcastle Predicted Lineups
Barcelona: Joan García, João Cancelo, Pau Cubarsí, Ronald Araujo, Gerard Martín, Pedri, Marc Bernal, Fermin López, Lamine Yamal, Raphinha, Robert Lewandowski.
Head coach: Hansi Flick
Newcastle: Aaron Ramsdale, Kieran Trippier, Malick Thiaw, Dan Burn, Lewis Hall, Joelinton, Joe Willock, Jacob Ramsey, Anthony Elanga, Harvey Barnes, Will Osula.
Head coach: Eddie Howe
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world, and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Barcelona vs Newcastle Prediction: Will Flick or Howe Triumph at Camp Nou? Opta Analyst.
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