‘Le Crunch’ always serves up some drama and if the unpredictability of this year’s edition of the Six Nations is anything to go by, then who knows what could happen at the Stade de France on Saturday night? Our rugby experts provide some answers.
France and England will close the curtain on this year’s tournament in Saturday night’s grand finale at the Stade de France, with both teams coming into this fixture on the back of soul-crushing defeats.
Each side will have strong motivation going into the closing game, however – one with glory still in their hands and the other fighting to salvage pride.
France have enjoyed the upper hand in this fixture recently, winning five of the last eight Six Nations meetings between the sides, though England did snatch the most recent clash at the death. If the visitors repeat that feat, it would be the first time they’ve recorded back‑to‑back wins over Les Bleus in the Championship since 2015-17.
However, France in Paris is a different prospect entirely. England haven’t tasted Six Nations victory across La Manche since 2016, France winning four on the bounce on home soil against their old foes. They’ve never made it five in a row, though, a piece of history they’ll be eager to write, but one that would be a footnote rather than the main headline should France do enough to lift the title.
Les Bleus have a habit of ending their campaign with a bang, winning their final game in 18 of the last 26 Championships, more than any other nation. A bonus‑point victory would all but seal the 2026 title, making it a record‑breaking eighth Six Nations crown in the modern era.
England, meanwhile, arrive in Paris in crisis. They’ve lost three straight matches and are staring at the possibility of a four defeats in a Six Nations campaign for the first time since Italy joined the competition – a statistic Steve Borthwick’s side will be desperate to avoid.
Where the Game Will Be Won
Despite being at different ends of the table, France and England have posted similar numbers when it comes to 22 entries.
In attack, France have made 50 forays into the opposition red zone this year, just ahead of England (48), with no other team hitting the 40 mark. It’s a similar story in defence, England conceding the fewest 22 entries (29) just ahead of France (31), with the next best team being Italy on 37.
However, there could hardly be a bigger contrast when assessing what happens after those 22 entries have been made.
In attack, Les Bleus boast the best points-per-entry average (3.3), with only Italy (1.4) having a worse rate than Borthwick’s side (2.0), who have conceded the most points per 22 entry (3.2); France’s 2.6 points conceded per 22 entry matches the overall tournament average.
The battle for supremacy at the set piece will be fascinating. England have the best lineout success rate this campaign (93.9%) while only Ireland (15%) have won possession from more of their opponents’ lineouts than these two sides (England 14%, France 13%).
France also boast the best scrum success rate this year, winning 91% on their own feed, but expect England to still go after them in this area – Borthwick’s men have won 14 scrum penalties and conceded just two, both tallies being the best of any nation in 2026.
Seven of the penalties England have won at the scrum have come on the opposition feed, Italy (5) are the only other team to win more than one.
France vs England Fantasy Picks
Louis Bielle-Biarrey is probably the first name on the teamsheet in most fantasy teams, but if you’re looking for someone to differentiate your team from the rest, then look no further than Theo Attissogbe on the other French wing.
Of players to feature in 5+ Six Nations games, he’s the only player to boast a better strike rate than Bielle-Biarrey, averaging 1.2 tries per game (LBB – 1.1). He’s also assisted three tries to go with seven scores of his own in his six appearances in the Championship.
Eight line breaks, eight defenders beaten and five offloads this season mean he’s likely to pick up points elsewhere, too.
There will be plenty of England players heavily motivated to put in a good performance and finish a difficult Championship on a high. Ollie Chessum looks like he could be a great option, playing in the back row this weekend rather than packing down in the engine room.
Back rows are generally higher scorers than second rows as they can expend a bit more energy outside of the set piece, so he could be a shrewd pickup, while he’ll likely still be a nuisance at the lineout – he’s comfortably top for lineout takes overall this year and is one of just five players to record a tournament high two lineout steals.
France vs England Prediction
The Opta supercomputer sees France’s defeat at Murrayfield last weekend as just being a bump in the road on the way to Six Nations glory, giving them a 79.8% chance of winning, with England having just under a one-in-five chance (19.3%).
The supercomputer believes France will win by more than two scores, with a 36-21 scoreline the most likely outcome from the supercomputer’s simulations. Such a scoreline would suggest a high likelihood of France getting the bonus point try which would all but guarantee a second successive title.
France vs England Lineups
France: 15 Thomas Ramos, 14 Theo Attissogbe, 13 Pierre-Louis Barassi, 12 Yoram Moefana, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10 Matthieu Jalibert, 9 Antoine Dupont, 1 Jean-Baptiste Gros, 2 Julien Marchand, 3 Dorian Aldegheri, 4 Thibaud Flament, 5 Emmanuel Meafou, 6 Francois Cros, 7 Temo Matiu, 8 Charles Ollivon
Replacements: 16 Peato Mauvaka, 17 Rodrigue Neti, 18 Demba Bamba, 19 Hugo Auradou, 20 Mickael Guillard, 21 Joshua Brennan, 22 Baptiste Serin, 23 Emilien Gailleton
England: 15 Elliot Daly, 14 Tom Roebuck, 13 Tommy Freeman, 12 Seb Atkinson, 11 Cadan Murley, 10 Fin Smith, 9 Ben Spencer, 1 Ellis Genge, 2 Jamie George, 3 Joe Heyes, 4 Maro Itoje, 5 Alex Coles, 6 Ollie Chessum, 7 Guy Pepper, 8 Ben Earl
Replacements: 16 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 17 Bevan Rodd, 18 Trevor Davison, 19 Chandler Cunningham-South, 20 Sam Underhill, 21 Henry Pollock, 22 Jack van Poortvliet, 23 Marcus Smith
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France vs England Prediction: Six Nations 2026 Preview Opta Analyst.
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