With 16 teams remaining in the 2025-26 UEFA Conference League, now feels an ideal time to check in on the Opta supercomputer’s predictions for the remainder of the competition. Here are the results from the latest 10,000 season simulations.
The UEFA Conference League round of 16 kicks off this week, with the eight first-leg matches taking place on Thursday, before the teams meet again in the second leg next week.
The Opta supercomputer has been hard at work, assigning win probabilities to every match as it simulates the remainder of the Conference League season 10,000 times.
Despite falling short of an automatic place in the last 16 following a 10th-place finish in the league phase, Crystal Palace are still the supercomputer’s favourites to win the competition this season, as they were before it kicked off in September.
Ahead of Matchday 1 of the league phase, Palace won the Conference League across 49.2% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations. Now, after making it through the knockout play-off round against Zrinjski Mostar, they win it less often in the sims (32.4%) but still remain the heavy favourites.
Last season’s English FA Cup winners haven’t had as strong a campaign this time around, and this competition remains their last chance of major silverware in 2025-26 (no, the Community Shield doesn’t count). With Oliver Glasner’s departure as manager at the end of the season already confirmed, Conference League glory would be a perfect way for the Austrian to go out.
On paper, the last-16 tie with Cypriot side AEK Larnaca shouldn’t provide a huge obstacle to a Premier League club, but they have already defeated Palace in the competition this season, winning 1-0 in the league phase despite the Eagles dominating the match.
Strasbourg have moved from third favourites ahead of MD1 (9.2%) to second favourites now (11.6%) after they topped the league phase with 16 points from a possible 18. The Ligue 1 side, who have had to contend with the loss of head coach Liam Rosenior to Chelsea since the turn of the year, face Rijeka in the last 16.
Fiorentina were originally the second favourites for the Conference League with the Opta supercomputer back in September (11.5%), but a poor league phase (15th place with three wins and three defeats) coupled with a terrible Serie A campaign (they sit one place above the relegation zone) has hindered their projected chance.
The Italian side now win the competition in just 3.5% of its sims, which makes them eighth-favourites for glory in the final hosted at Red Bull Arena, Leipzig on 27 May.
Rayo Vallecano (11.2%) and AEK Athens (9.2%) both enjoyed top-five finishes in the league phase and rank third and fourth respectively in the current Opta supercomputer projections to win the tournament, while Raków Częstochowa, who finished second in the league phase behind Strasbourg have seen their chance of winning the Conference League this season rise from 1.1% before MD1 to 3.3% now.
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UEFA Conference League Predictions: The Opta Supercomputer’s 2025-26 Projections Ahead of Last 16 Opta Analyst.
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