What feels like the longest awards season ever will come to an end this Sunday, March 15th, when the 98th Academy Awards are announced. Like we did last year, we asked the editors of RogerEbert.com to pick their choices for what will win, should win, and should have been nominated for one of the most unpredictable Oscars of all time.
Only two of the major eight categories have a consensus prediction to win (Best Actress & Best Adapted Screenplay), and the crew is also divided on what should win across almost every category, indicating the breadth of a fantastic year. As for the overlooked, there’s a lot of love for Jafar Panahi and Josh O’Connor, among many other fascinating choices from Pamela Anderson to Adam Sandler. Enjoy.
Legend: Matt Zoller Seitz (MZS), Robert Daniels (RD), Nell Minow (NM), Clint Worthington (CW), and yours truly (BT).
BEST PICTUREWHO WILL WIN:“One Battle After Another” (NM/CW/MZS)“Sinners” (BT/RD)
WHO SHOULD WIN:“One Battle After Another” (BT/CW)“Sinners” (NM/MZS)“The Secret Agent” (RD)
WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED:“It Was Just an Accident” (BT/CW)“Blue Moon” (RD)“The Life of Chuck” (MZS)“Nuremberg” (NM)
The most competitive Best Picture race in years will end on Sunday when either Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” or Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” ends up the final winner announced. The crew here is split on both what will and what should happen. Funny enough, only Clint predicts the winner to be his pick, PTA’s film, although I think “Sinners” would be a historic, equally worthy win, and I’m predicting it after the success at the SAG Actor Awards. Robert agrees, noting, “I can’t ignore the record-breaking nomination haul garnered by “Sinners” or the sheer enthusiasm around it.”
As for overlooked nominees, Clint and I agree that Jafar Panahi’s Palme d’Or winner was robbed, likely due to the abundance of Neon possibilities (two of theirs, “The Secret Agent” and “Sentimental Value” already taking up real estate). Clint says, “I think it’s a shame that Jafar Panahi’s mighty treatise on the lingering effects of wartime trauma isn’t in contention for the top spot.” Nell points out the power of “Nuremberg,” writing, “It is a powerful reminder of how easy it is to slip into brutality if you think it will give you the sense of yourself and your culture you believe you are entitled to.” Finally, Matt Zoller Seitz loves Mike Flanagan’s Stephen King adaptation, “a lovely, funny, sweet, profound, and very accessible movie that also has an unconventional structure.”
BEST DIRECTORWHO WILL WIN:Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” (BT/NM/RD)Ryan Coogler, “Sinners” (MZS)Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme” (CW)
WHO SHOULD WIN:Ryan Coogler, “Sinners” (BT/CW/RD/MZS)Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” (NM)
WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED:Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident” (BT/CW)Craig Brewer, “Song Sung Blue” (NM)Mary Bronstein, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (RD)Steven Soderbergh, “Presence” (MZS)
In years that are this competitive, there’s often a Pic/Director split. That’s what I’m predicting: That PTA will finally take home a Best Director Oscar (his second ever after winning Adapted Screenplay earlier in the night), but I’d be over the moon if Coogler won for his incredible ambition, something that 4/5ths of us agree on. (Nell is predicting her pick for should-win, PTA, will take the prize.)
As for why Coogler should win, we’ll let someone who notoriously gave the film a mixed review take the mic: “I’m sure there will be some eyebrows raised by readers, especially those who read my review,” says Robert. “However, like I said in my review, I can’t deny the massive swing Coogler took or the rarity of its occurrence for Black directors. That I think it only works in fits and starts is moot. This is the biggest and most expansive vision of the films nominated. It should win for the sheer level of difficulty required to even attempt it.”
As for the overlooked, Matt picks out one of the best living directors and one who should be in this line-up far more often: Steven Soderbergh. “Soderbergh not only directed but also served as the sole camera operator, simultaneously giving a sensitive and totally in-the-zone “performance” as the first-person protagonist, a ghost, while mentally tracking everything else a director must manage,” he says.
BEST ACTORWHO WILL WIN:Timothee Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” (NM/CW)Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent” (RD/MZS)Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners” (BT)
WHO SHOULD WIN:Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon” (BT/CW/RD)Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners” (NM/MZS)
WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED:Josh O’Connor, “The Mastermind” (CW/RD/MZS)Lee Byung-hun, “No Other Choice” (BT)Denzel Washington, “Highest 2 Lowest” (RD)
One of the most unpredictable categories of the night will be Best Actor, which looked at one point like Chalamet’s to lose, but the joy and admiration in the room when Michael B. Jordan won the SAG Actor Award last week felt undeniable to this writer. There’s also a strong possibility that Chalamet and Jordan split the “predictable” vote and allow Moura or Hawke to sneak in and take it.
As for his predicted pick of Moura, Matt writes: “I think Moura is this year’s equivalent of the barely known Adrien Brody winning Best Actor over Russell Crowe and Nicolas Cage for 2002, or a young Irish actor named Daniel Day-Lewis, who wasn’t a star yet, taking the award despite stiff competition from Tom Cruise, Kenneth Branagh, Morgan Freeman and Robin Williams, all of whom did some of their career-best work that same year. It’s a great performance by Moura, mysterious and sad and strangely kind.”
There’s more consensus in the entire field of acting for who should have been nominated than in the five picks and that’s because of the stunning year that Josh O’Connor had with “Rebuilding,” “History of Sound,” “Wake Up Dead Man,” and Kelly Reichardt’s “The Mastermind,” which 60% of the editors of this site would have nominated. As MZS writes, “he’s never been anything less than mesmerizing.” I adore O’Connor, but I was also personally annoyed that Park Chan-wook’s “No Other Choice” was entirely overlooked and would have cited the best work of Lee Byung-hun’s career (among other nominations).
BEST ACTRESSWHO WILL WIN:Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (BT/NM/CW/RD/MZS)
WHO SHOULD WIN:Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (BT/MZS)Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (CW/RD)Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue” (NM)
WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED:Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee” (BT/CW)Kathleen Chalfant, “Familiar Touch” (NM)Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another” (RD)
Finally, some consensus. The only true award season precursor sweep has come from Jessie Buckley and “Hamnet,” a certain winner on Sunday. While she’s my pick for “should” in this fivesome, if either Amanda Seyfried or Jennifer Lawrence (“Die, My Love”) had been justly nominated, I would have gone with one of those unforgettable turns. They’re both performances that people will presume were nominated years from now and feel startled when they learn they weren’t.
I’m also fully on board with Nell’s pick of Kathleen Chalfant’s nuanced work in “Familiar Touch” and Chase Infiniti’s star-making turn in “One Battle After Another,” Robert’s pick, revealing the remarkable depth of talent in a category that’s being dominated by one person. Nell cites Chalfant’s “exquisite performance as a woman whose vibrance and dignity are undimmed by cognitive decline.”
Robert also wishes that the biggest upset of the night goes to Rose Byrne, writing, “It’s Rose Byrne’s misfortune that she also played an aggrieved mother in a film that I think is emotionally more difficult to wrap your arms around but is ultimately far more trusting of the audience and its actors to provide space to organically feel.”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTORWHO WILL WIN:Delroy Lindo, “Sinners” (BT/RD)Benicio del Toro, “One Battle After Another” (CW/MZS)Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” (NM)
WHO SHOULD WIN:Delroy Lindo, “Sinners” (CW/RD)Benicio del Toro, “One Battle After Another” (MZS)Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein” (BT)Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” (NM)
WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED:Adam Sandler, “Jay Kelly” (BT)Josh O’Connor, anything (NM)Ralph Fiennes, “28 Years Later” (CW)Andrew Scott, “Blue Moon” (RD)Jack O’Connell, “Sinners” (MZS)
There are so many choices here. For weeks, it felt like an open race, but Sean Penn taking both BAFTA and SAG Actor makes him the likely frontrunner, but I’m going with the wave of love for “Sinners” sweeping in the wonderful Delroy Lindo in one of the biggest surprises of the night. Almost no one here would be truly aggravating, although Del Toro’s work feels more subtly perfect than Penn’s to this viewer, even if my pick would be the incredibly physical, nuanced work from the “Euphoria” star. And Clint says he’ll “drink a few small beers” if BdT pulls what now kinda feels like an upset.
Nell drops O’Connor here to award his remarkable 2025 while the rest of the staff picks such a unique range of performances. They’re gonna have to nominate Adam Sandler someday, and this would have been a great one in which to do it, while I agree with all of the other choices, too. It’s a fantastic year for supporting performances, and it will be a bit ironic if the least-campaigning of the bunch, Sean Penn, rises to the top to take home his third trophy.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESSWHO WILL WIN:Amy Madigan, “Weapons” (BT/NM/CW/MZS)Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners” (RD)
WHO SHOULD WIN:Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners” (BT/MZS)Amy Madigan, “Weapons” (NM)Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value” (CW)Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” (RD)
WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED:Jane Levy, “A Little Prayer” (BT)Odessa A’zion, “Marty Supreme” (NM)Pamela Anderson, “The Naked Gun” (CW)Tânia Maria, “The Secret Agent” (RD)Diane Kruger, “The Shrouds” (MZS)
It’s funny that four people are predicting the win for “Weapons,” given I don’t think this category is predictable at all. Yes, the “Sentimental Value” nominees probably cancel each other out, but none of the other three would surprise me in the slightest, and I’d actually prefer either of the non-Madigan picks. As much as Amy Madigan elevates “Weapons” every second she’s on screen, the same can be said for Mosaku and Taylor. What’s interesting is that all three feel like performances that define their films: You can’t imagine the movies without them.
As for who should have been nominated, look at those five. Imagine what an inspired Oscars it would be if those were the five instead! I adored Jane Levy’s moving work in Angus MacLachlan’s delicate drama, while Nell considers Odessa A’zion’s turn “the heart of ‘Marty Supreme,’” tough and tender.” Robert hoped for a second acting nomination for “The Secret Agent,” saying of Maria’s work: “It’s a true supporting performance that provides this rebellious movie with another definition of courage, one found in the undaunted, literal support of others who find themselves rendered powerless against an oppressive system.”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAYWHO WILL WIN:“One Battle After Another” by Paul Thomas Anderson (BT/NM/CW/RD/MZS)
WHO SHOULD WIN:“One Battle After Another” by Paul Thomas Anderson (BT/NM/CW/RD)“Frankenstein” by Guillermo del Toro (MZS)
WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED:“Wake Up Dead Man” by Rian Johnson (BT)“Peter Hujar’s Day” by Ira Sachs (NM)“Die, My Love” by Lynne Ramsay (CW)“Hedda” by Nia DaCosta (RD)
There was almost five-for-five consensus on the Academy “getting this one right,” but Matt is holding out hope for an upset for Guillermo del Toro, calling his Mary Shelley adaptation “one of his best feature film scripts ever, true to the source (in spirit, anyway) but a GDT joint all the way, in terms of structure, tone, and the choice of when to have characters talk and when to let them be silent.”
As for the overlooked, Nell calls “Peter Hujar’s Day” “a lyrical cinematic poem about the eternal joy of sunlight, friendship, and being present for whatever happens.” Robert holds a little more anger for overlooking Nia DaCosta’s “prickly” Ibsen adaptation, saying those who didn’t vote for it “…will not see heaven. Few scribes took as big an adaptive swing as her and connected on such a high level.”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYWHO WILL WIN:“Sinners” by Ryan Coogler (BT/NM/RD/MZS)“Marty Supreme” by Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie (CW)
WHO SHOULD WIN:“Sinners” by Ryan Coogler (BT/NM/MZS)“It Was Just an Accident” by Jafar Panahi with script collaborators Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, and Mehdi Mahmoudian (CW/RD)
WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED:“Sorry, Baby” by Eva Victor (BT/RD)“Jay Kelly” by Noah Baumbach (NM)“The Mastermind” by Kelly Reichardt (CW)“Black Bag” by David Koepp (MZS)
Once again, there’s a higher-than-average consensus that the Academy will get this one right, awarding Ryan Coogler’s script, one that Seitz calls “vibrantly original and entertaining. “
Robert and I unite in our shock at Eva Victor’s snub, with Robert writing: “Victor’s script is so introspective, thoughtful, and vulnerable—showing a level of processing that I could imagine—that I can’t imagine anyone watching or reading it and not thinking it’s among the best of the year.”
Finally, Clint takes a righteous soapbox for one of our best filmmakers and how she’s consistently overlooked, writing, “There are scenes and exchanges in ‘The Mastermind’ that still stick with me, and it would be nice for Reichardt’s probing, contemplative writing to be rewarded. Give her a nomination, for crying out loud; it’s been decades! She’s put in the work!”
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