Severe storms eyeing the Chicago area Tuesday have the potential to produce supercells, considered to be one of the most powerful types of storm.
But what exactly are they and what makes them so dangerous?
According to the National Weather Service, supercells are the least common type of thunderstorm.
“But they have a high propensity to produce severe weather, including damaging winds, very large hail, and sometimes weak to violent tornadoes,” the NWS reported. “What makes a supercell unique from all other thunderstorm types is that it contains a deep and persistent rotating updraft called a mesocyclone. If the environment is favorable, supercell thunderstorms can last for several hours.”
According to NBC 5 Storm Team Meteorologist Kevin Jeanes, the rotations associated with a supercell can lead to stronger, more damaging tornadoes, the likes of which aren’t often seen in the Chicago area. They can also lead to larger hail than other types of storms.
“The simplest way to describe a supercell is a large rotating thunderstorm that develops when you (typically) have strong southeast winds at the surface, and strong southwest winds aloft,” Jeanes said. “We don’t see a ton of supercells around Chicago. Usually the tornadoes we see are formed within lines of storms called a quasi-linear-convective-system (QLCS). Those tornadoes are usually weak and short-lived.”
But whether or not supercells will form depends on how the atmosphere sets up Tuesday. Such storms require specific circumstances.
“Although supercells require some degree of buoyancy, moderate to strong speed and directional wind shear between the surface and about 20,000 feet is the most critical factor. Wind shear not only creates the mesocyclone, but it also allows the storm to be tilted, which is important for maintaining a separate updraft and downdraft region,” the NWS reported. “A separate updraft and downdraft allows the supercell to be long-lived because it reduces the likelihood that too much rain-cooled, stable air from the downdraft region will be ingested into the updraft, causing the storm to weaken.”
There are different types of supercells, like precipitation-heavy or classic, but most supercells will shift forms as they evolve.
“Regardless of the supercell types, the processes responsible for supercell formation are the same for every location,” the NWS noted.
The biggest threat for tornadoes, and possibly supercells, Tuesday sits south of Interstate 80 and extends into northwest Indiana, where several counties are now under a “moderate” risk for severe weather, a level four out of five. Such a high risk level is rarely seen in the Chicago area.
Several other counties are also under an “enhanced” risk of severe weather, which ranks as level three of five. The “enhanced” risk was also increased to include much of Cook County, according to the Storm Prediction Center.
“All weather hazards will be at play,” NBC 5 Storm Team Meteorologist Kevin Jeanes said.
According to the NWS, Lake County and counties to the north Tuesday will be under a “slight” risk of severe weather, which ranks as level two of five. There, the biggest weather threats will be large hail, flash flooding and strong winds, gusting as high as 60 miles per hour.
The best timing for showers and storms begins between 4 p.m. and 5 p.m., potentially impacting rush hour commuters, the NBC 5 Storm Team said. By 7 p.m., scattered showers and storms with heavy downpours were expected across the Chicago area.
The tornado threat is expected to last through at least 10 p.m. for most locations, but could extend even later across northwest Indiana.
Steady rain and gusty winds are expected to continue into the evening and overnight, bringing a continued risk for flash flooding, Jeanes said.
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