ROCHESTER, N.Y. – A Yellow Alert has been issued for Saturday due to the potential for strong storms in the afternoon with gusty winds and hail.
The entirety of the region is waking up to extremely mild temperatures, in the 50s, this Saturday morning! That warmth is going to continue into the rest of the day and lead to temperatures challenging a record high of 68 degrees that was set on this day in 2012. Unfortunately, with the wild swing in temperatures also comes the potential for severe weather. A Yellow Alert is up for Saturday highlighting the potential for an afternoon line of thunderstorms to turn severe in parts of Western New York after 3 p.m.
Saturday morning’s potent warm front has been carrying showers across the region with some rumbles of thunder down into the Southern Tier. These rain showers will move out later this morning making way for limited sunshine in the later part of the morning into the early afternoon. Dew points will be rising into the low to mid 60s with air temperatures forecasted to reach 72 degrees! This moisture and unseasonably warm weather is exactly what early springtime storms crave. However, there are a couple factors working against our severe weather threat. First, sunshine will be limited today which will suppress severe potential. Second, this warm unstable air needs to move over the Great Lakes before it reaches us. That means these storms will pick up some colder air from Lake Erie which will also suppress severe potential. That being said, there are a couple factors working in favor of severe weather Saturday afternoon. Current data runs are pushing the line of storms behind by about an hour. Though this doesn’t seem like a lot of time, this may be just enough time for this line of storms to pick up on some additional thermal energy. This later start time on the storms does increase our severe weather potential. Also, there is a great amount of wind shear (shifting wind) in the lower and middle atmosphere. Wind shear is essential for storm organization and longevity, therefore, leading to stronger thunderstorms. Due to the consistency in high wind shear from each data run, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, especially in the western Southern Tier. However, this is lowest on the threat list.
We have a lot of battling between warm air, clouds, sun, and cold lakes. A lot of factors go into severe weather, but the bottom line is always the most important. Atmospheric conditions are supportive of strong thunderstorms moving through after 3 p.m. with the potential to produce gusty winds (60 mph plus), medium sized hail, heavy downpours, and even the off chance of an early-season isolated tornado. Keep the First Alert Weather App handy for minute-to-minute updates on your weather as we move through Saturday.
First Alert Weather: Yellow Alert Saturday for strong thunderstorms in the afternoon WHEC.com.
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