Nigel Farage’s dream of entering No 10 could be extinguished by tactical voting among left-wing voters, new polling for The i Paper suggests.
The survey, undertaken by BMG Research, found that supporters of Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens are significantly more willing to consider tactical voting than those who back Reform UK or the Conservatives.
In a further challenge for Farage, while Reform continues to poll above its rivals, its level of support has fallen to the lowest level in a BMG poll for a year, leading to suggestions that “the shine may be coming off” the party.
In the face of the rising threat of Farage’s party, evidence has emerged that lifelong Labour backers could vote elsewhere in order to keep Reform UK out of No 10.
By using their vote strategically – and not how they typically would – left-wing Britons could increase the chances of getting the overall election result they want.
Britons were asked how willing they would be to vote tactically at the next General Election, “that is, to vote for a party that is not your first choice to prevent another party from winning”.
Voters who said they would typically vote for Labour were the most likely to be willing to vote tactically, with 64 per cent saying they would do so.
Sixty-one per cent of Green voters said they would be willing, along with 57 per cent of Lib Dem voters.
By contrast, there was much less appetite for tactical voting among right-wing voters. Just 38 per cent of Reform voters said they were willing to vote tactically, while 48 per cent of Tory voters were willing to do so.
With many progressive voters strongly opposed to Farage’s agenda, it raises the prospect of Labour, Green and Lib Dem supporters ‘lending’ their votes to each other’s parties to block Reform in various seats.
However, Reform has played down the threat of left-wing tactical voting, with a senior party source recently telling The i Paper that progressive voters would struggle to work out the best anti-Reform choice among the noise of a general election.
Reform’s poll lead slips
The source said that the by-election result in Gorton and Denton last week, which saw Reform come second to the Greens in a previously Labour seat, was “good news” for Reform because “the Greens now are not going to give an inch to the Labour Party”.
In the poll, Reform was barely ahead on voting intention with 27 per cent – down 5 percentage points when compared to BMG’s last poll in January.
Labour were on 20 per cent (no change), with the Tories on 18 per cent (up one percentage point), the Greens on 14 per cent (up one) and the Lib Dems on 12 per cent (also up one).
The figure for the Greens follows the party’s victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election, and represents the highest vote intention for Zack Polanksi’s party in a BMG poll yet.
Although Reform still has a seven-point lead, its vote share is the lowest for Farage’s party since March 2025, when BMG put it on 23 per cent.
Farage may be more concerned by the findings on attitudes to tactical voting.
There have already been several cases in which progressive voters have appeared to coalesce around an anti-Reform party.
As well as the Green victory in Gorton and Denton, Plaid Cymru comfortably beat Reform in the Senedd by-election in Caerphilly, with many traditional Labour voters throwing their support behind the Welsh nationalist party.
‘Appetite for tactical voting across political spectrum’
Jack Curry, a pollster at BMG, said: “One of the most striking patterns from this poll is how uneven the appetite for tactical voting appears across the political spectrum.
“This comes as we see signs of sharpening anti-Reform sentiment among parts of the electorate.
“As the possibility of Reform entering Government becomes more widely discussed and their platform is set out in more detail, some voters seem increasingly motivated not just by who they want to win, but by who they want to keep out.”
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Curry said that such a “dynamic could matter on the ground”, with Reform’s vote currently concentrated in areas where the Tories were already vulnerable in 2024.
“In seats like these, even relatively modest tactical co-ordination between Labour, Greens and Lib Dem voters could make it a little harder for Reform to turn national support into seats,” he said.
However, he said the “caveat” to the left’s apparent tactical voting advantage was the “level of fragmentation on that side of the political spectrum, and how clearly parties or outside organisations can signal to voters who the strongest challenger is locally”.
The exclusive poll for The i Paper surveyed a representative sample of 1,503 adults living in Great Britain between 4 and 5 March.
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