Bottom Line With Brad: Path Dependency ...Middle East

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Written by North Carolina Treasurer Brad Briner

It’s not the destination, it’s the journey. We’ve all heard this life advice at some point or another, and it really is useful – in a world that is more focused every day on the next milestone, the next challenge and the next news cycle – appreciating what is going on along your path is essential.

This month we are focusing on how the twists and turns of your path can have profound implications for your destination. This is a concept called “path dependency,” and to me it essentially means that every step you take in life reduces the possible number of destinations where you may end up. And this is most often a very good thing. Investing in yourself by getting a great education, working hard at whatever you are doing, following the law and having modest financial discipline are all examples of actions we each can take that limit our future destinations in very good ways by taking some pretty bad outcomes off the table.

Treasurer Briner and his mom

Sometimes, those decisions are made for you by your parents. For me, it was my mother’s willingness to take a menial job at a private school which allowed me to get a great early education at that school, rather than being stuck in the failing public school in my hometown in Texas. That decision by her fundamentally changed my path for the better!

Early Steps:

Path dependency in building savings for a rainy day or retirement matters tremendously as well. Remember when we talked about compound interest? (Take a look back at our June issue on this topic.) It matters greatly how much you save for important things. But it matters when you save as well – the earlier you start, the more likely your path will lead to a destination that will be a great one. Time can be an ally.

Risks:

It matters in the risks you take, too. While we all ultimately only take one path through life, we still have to consider all the likely outcomes. Building a plan that allows you to still get to a good destination – even if there ends up being a pothole in your path – or a risk ends up becoming reality – is paramount. Saving for a rainy day after the rainy day has already come is not nearly as useful. Sure, it’s possible it won’t rain, but why put yourself on a path that depends on it not raining?

There are some more subtle aspects of path dependency, too. Particularly in your career – as you progress along that path, all that you have done professionally will hopefully help ensure that your journey doesn’t go through a bad place. Building a reputation as a team player, sticking with a role through a tough time and resisting the temptation to jump to a new job after a short time, paying it forward with people who need some help and can’t obviously repay the favor and many other things help determine your path in the future, so choose wisely… and hopefully all the thought you put in to ensuring your path doesn’t veer too far away from your destination will end up being unnecessary. But it will be worth doing anyway!

Brad Briner was elected North Carolina Treasurer in 2024 after working as the co-chief investment officer for Willett Advisors and has held positions at Morgan Creek Capital, the UNC Management Company, ArcLight Capital and Goldman Sachs. He started writing “Bottom Line with Brad” as a way to educate North Carolinians on complicated financial matters in the Department of State Treasurer’s monthly “Finance Fridays” newsletter. The column is published in partnership with Chapelboro and is not a sponsored series.

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