ROCHESTER, N.Y. – A stretch of pleasant weather is on the way and it may arrive sooner than you think. After a prolonged period of temperature swings, a more consistent and seasonable pattern is beginning to take shape. And if there is one thing we know, it is that Rochesterians truly appreciate mild weather after a long winter.
Over the past several weeks, temperatures have fluctuated dramatically, which is a classic battle between lingering winter air and advancing spring warmth. That variability has been driven by shifts in the upper-level wind pattern and the position of the jet stream.
Looking ahead, the next 10 days point toward greater stability and a noticeable warming trend. The large-scale atmospheric pattern is undergoing a significant shift. What had been a trough or dip in the jet stream across the northeastern United States is transitioning into a ridge. This ridge of high pressure and warmer air is expected to anchor itself across the Great Lakes region, allowing milder temperatures to persist for a more extended period.
As a result, Rochester may have several opportunities to challenge record high temperatures. Current projections indicate:
Saturday: Forecast high of 70° (record: 68° set in 2012) Tuesday: Forecast high of 69° (record: 68° set in 2021) Wednesday: Forecast high of 69° (record: 71° set in 2021)It is noteworthy that each of these record highs has occurred within the past 14 years which is just a reminder of how frequently early-season warmth has appeared in recent history.
This may not be the end of the above-average temperatures. Local microclimates, including the development of a lake breeze off Lake Ontario, could influence day-to-day highs. However, if the ridge remains in place, additional opportunities for unseasonably warm weather are certainly possible.
For now, a sustained stretch of springlike conditions appears increasingly likely. A welcome change for many across Western New York.
First Alert Weather In-Depth: Record highs within reach this week WHEC.com.
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