If you want to get ahead of NBA MVP, Rookie of the Year and other major awards at the season’s three-quarters pole, listen to our advanced data say, “And the winner is …”
With the NBA regular season nearing its final five weeks – where did the time go? – a lot of league-wide discourse has shifted toward awards races.
Much of these discussions will be narrative-based, which is fine, as these awards are voted upon by real people, and humans can be fallible. However, data never lies, so for our predictions, we’re relying solely on our Opta Analyst advanced data.
Here is what the numbers say about the current order for NBA Most Valuable Player, Defensive Player of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Most Improved Player and Coach of the Year.
Notably, we filtered out players who are ineligible or on track to be ineligible for certain NBA Awards because of the league’s minimum games played requirement.
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Methodology: For this award, we are relying on our catch-all, one-number metric DRIP. It estimates a player’s contribution to a team’s plus/minus per 100 possessions.
1. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets (6.83 DRIP)
Even while the NBA’s hierarchy is going through change, Jokic still ranks supreme in our DRIP metric – grading out as the second-best offensive player in the league and a clear positive on the defensive side of the ball. He’s already missed 16 of Denver’s 62 games this season, so he can only miss one more game to remain eligible. But given his iron man reputation, it feels like there’s a good chance he will make it to the finish line, especially if the Nuggets are fighting for playoff positioning in the unforgiving Western Conference.
2. Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers (5.40 DRIP)
Leonard can only miss three of the Clippers’ final 21 games to stay eligible. That, coupled with their collision course with the play-in tournament (and a bizarre circumvention scandal), makes him a long shot to actually win. But Leonard deserves his flowers for putting up arguably his best season in his age-34 campaign.
3. Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers (5.38 DRIP)
Doncic continues to be an offensive wunderkind, leading the league in O-DRIP. The only thing holding him back is his defense, which DRIP sees as barely above neutral.
Other Contenders
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder; Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers
NBA Defensive Player of the Year
Methodology: Here we use D-DRIP, the defensive version of DRIP.
1. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (3.47 D-DRIP)
Since the start of the season, Wembanyama has been the frontrunner to take home the DPOY award. He should have won it last year if not for a blood clot in his shoulder ending his season prematurely. This season, the 7-foot-3 star continues to be the most dominant defender in the sport. The difference between him and the next-highest player in D-DRIP (0.57) is greater than what separates the individuals occupying second and fifth place. Again, it will come down to injuries. To be eligible, he must play 18 of his team’s final 21 games.
2. Ausar Thompson, Detroit Pistons (2.90 D-DRIP)
It may be time to say it: On the defensive end of the court, Thompson is the best non-center in the NBA. He’s in the 97th percentile in steal rate and the 83rd percentile in block rate as a 6-6 small forward. Most importantly, he’s the best defender on the second-best defense in the NBA (per D-TRACR).
3. Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves (2.80 D-DRIP)
At the age of 33, Rudy Gobert continues to be one of the NBA’s premier rim protectors. Opponents are shooting nearly 10 percent worse than expected on shots within six feet when Gobert is there to offer a contest (per NBA.com). Will that be enough for him to earn his fifth DPOY award?
Other Contenders
Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder; Neemias Queta, Boston Celtics; Isaiah Hartenstein, Oklahoma City Thunder
NBA Rookie of the Year
Methodology: Again, we rely on the highest DRIP scores for rookies. For this one, the 65-game/20-minutes-per-game rule does not apply.
1. Kon Kneuppel, Charlotte Hornets (1.84 DRIP)
All eyes have been on the prodigious Cooper Flagg, and while he certainly has the highest ceiling of any player in this class, Kneuppel is the one who’s impacting winning the most this season. He’s already one of the best offensive players in the league, ranking 21st in O-DRIP. Plus, he’s already smashed the single season record for 3-pointers made (216 and counting) in an inaugural campaign. Oh, and the Charlotte Hornets are finally good, by the way.
2. Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks (0.88 DRIP)
Flagg may not be making the same immediate impact as Kneuppel, but he’s still living up to all the hype surrounding him prior to the 2025 NBA Draft. A PPG/RPG/APG slashline of 20.4/6.6/4.1 on league-average efficiency would be good enough to get the job done for ROY in pretty much any other season.
3. Will Richard, Golden State Warriors (0.36 DRIP)
The numbers aren’t nearly as gaudy as the two names above him (7.0 PPG in 19.3 MPG), but being a rotation-level player for a playoff-bound team in Year 1 is no small feat.
Other Contenders
V.J. Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers; Cedric Coward, Memphis Grizzlies; Ace Bailey, Utah Jazz
NBA Sixth Man Of the Year
Methodology: Since 2001-02, every player who has won the 6MOY award has averaged at least 13 PPG, so we’ve looked at the DRIP of every bench player (at least 30 games played off the bench) averaging at least that mark. Like ROY, the 65-game/20-minutes-per-game rule does not apply.
1. Reed Sheppard, Houston Rockets (0.18 DRIP)
Sheppard has quickly dispelled any previous notion he may be a bust with his sophomore campaign. He’s averaged 13.2 PPG and 3.2 APG while shooting 39.6% from beyond the arc while coming off the bench for 51 of his 60 appearances. Funny enough, DRIP views him slightly higher on defense (0.17 D-DRIP) than on offense (0.01 O-DRIP), likely because of his incredible hands, as he ranks in the 93rd percentile in steal rate and the 69th percentile in block rate.
2. Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves (-0.24 DRIP)
Reid may be well on his way to joining the sixth-man GOAT conversation (alongside the likes of Manu Ginobili, Vinnie Johnson, Lou Williams and Jamal Crawford). He won the award in 2023-24, and based on our data (and betting lines) looks to be firmly in the mix once again.
3. Tim Hardaway Jr., Denver Nuggets (-1.71 DRIP)
Hardaway has done an admirable job of keeping the Nuggets in solid position (fifth in the Western Conference) while they juggle a myriad of injuries to key players. On the season, he’s averaging 13.9 PPG while shooting 40.3% on 3s. He’s finished in the top 10 in voting for this award on three separate occasions.
Other Contenders
Ajay Mitchell, Oklahoma City Thunder (he has the highest DRIP of all the players that meet the criteria, but he’s been out for so long, all of his momentum may be cooked); Keldon Johnson, San Antonio Spurs; Bobby Portis, Milwaukee Bucks
NBA Most Improved Player
Methodology: Our DELTA metric is an awesome tool for this award race as it calculates how much a player’s DRIP has changed from the beginning of the season to today.
1. Collin Gillespie, Phoenix Suns (3.15 DELTA)
Sportsbooks need to get hip to Gillespie as soon as possible (FanDuel has six players with better odds to win the MIP award). If it’s truly about recognizing the player who displayed the most growth from one season to the next, Gillespie has to be the guy. Last season, he was on the fringes of the Suns’ rotation; now he’s at the epicenter (first on the team in DRIP) of one of the NBA’s bigger surprise teams (they’re only one win shy of matching last season’s total).
2. Neemias Queta, Boston Celtics (3.06 DELTA)
Many people (myself included) pinpointed center as the position that would trouble the Celtics this season (plus, the absence of All-NBA forward Jayson Tatum, of course). Not only has Queta proven he can fill a void (after starting just six games in his first four NBA seasons), he’s been one of the best defenders in the league (fifth in D-DRIP).
3. Moussa Diabete, Charlotte Hornets (2.99 DELTA)
Diabete continues to be one of the more underrated bigs in basketball, and he just keeps getting better and better. He’s fifth in the league in offensive rebounds per game (3.7) in 25.5 MPG, with his 64.6 FG% also fifth among players with 200+ attempts.
Other Contenders
Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons; Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Atlanta Hawks; Keyonte George, Utah Jazz
NBA Coach of the Year
Methodology: Historically, this award goes to the coach who helped his team improve the most from one season to the next. To measure the candidates, we’re comparing each team’s TRACR (our one-number team-based metric) from last season to this season to see which teams have the greatest rise.
1. Charles Lee, Charlotte Hornets (21 Spot Increase)
The Hornets may be the most heartwarming story of the 2025-26 season, and Lee deserves praise for this. A season ago, they had the second-worst TRACR in the league. This season, they’re sixth, with our projection model giving them a 79.5% chance of making the playoffs for the first time in 10 years, and a 39.4% chance of winning a series for the first time since 2002.
2. Mitch Johnson, San Antonio Spurs (19 Spot Increase)
The Spurs may finish the season with the top seed in the Western Conference just one year after finishing 13th. Johnson has done wonders in his first full season with the team, taking them from 23rd in TRACR to third. Our model currently gives them a 23.5% chance of reaching the NBA Finals.
3. Darko Rajakovic, Toronto Raptors (12 Spot Increase)
The Raptors aren’t as amusing as the Hornets or as scary as the Spurs, but they’re still pretty darn good in Rajakovic’s third season. They rank 13th in TRACR one year after finishing 24th, with their 35 wins already five more than last season.
Other Contenders
J.B. Bickerstaff, Detroit Pistons; Erik Spoelstra, Miami Heat; Jordan Ott, Phoenix Suns
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NBA Awards Predictions: Who the Data Says Are the Favorites This Season Opta Analyst.
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