ROCHESTER, N.Y. – The official start of spring is just over two weeks away. As we transition into the new season, the likelihood of thunderstorms, lightning, and periods of intense rainfall begins to increase across much of the country.
The latest forecast indicates a corridor of severe weather potential on Friday stretching from Chicago, Illinois, south to Dallas, Texas. In this region, isolated tornadoes will be possible, along with wind gusts exceeding 58 miles per hour and large hail.
Here at home, the News10NBC First Alert Weather Team is not expecting severe weather in Rochester. However, periods of rain are likely in the coming days.
Looking ahead, computer guidance over the next seven days suggests the potential for heavy rainfall from Detroit, Michigan, down to Dallas, Texas. This raises concerns about flooding across a broad portion of the country.
It’s important to understand the difference between standard (river) flooding and flash flooding:
Standard Flooding
Develops from prolonged periods of steady rain Occurs over days or even weeks Typically provides more advance warningFlash Flooding
Caused by sudden, intense rainfall Develops within minutes to hours Offers significantly less warning timeAnother way meteorologists communicate rainfall potential is through the Probability of Precipitation, commonly referred to as “PoP.” This represents the likelihood of measurable precipitation occurring at a specific location during a defined forecast period.
For example, a 30 percent chance of rain does not mean it will rain 30 percent of the time. Instead, it means there is a 30 percent chance of measurable precipitation at any given point in the forecast area. In most cases, that suggests rainfall will be isolated.
On the other hand, a 90 percent chance of precipitation indicates widespread rainfall is likely and you will want to keep your umbrella close at hand.
You will see this probability of precipitation displayed on our News10NBC 10-day forecast, where it serves as an important tool in helping you plan ahead.
First Alert Weather In-Depth: What a 30% chance of rain really means WHEC.com.
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