The San Diego-Tijuana metropolitan area is one of the most economically dynamic corridors in the world. Tens of thousands of people cross the border every day for work, study and family life. Yet beneath lies a striking contrast.
San Diego County, with 3.3 million residents, generates more than $300 billion in annual output, while Tijuana, with roughly 2.2 million people, produces just over $30 billion. Two cities, one large binational market.
Manufacturing, trade and cross border-labor are the pillars of this symbiotic relationship between both cities. Long-time residents on both sides, especially those involved in these sectors, can attest to its transformation over the past half century. Many businesses in California and Baja California depend on suppliers, workers and customers across the border.
As time passes, the interconnectedness between both cities becomes more visible and unavoidable. The new elevated highway linking Tijuana’s airport to Playas runs alongside the border wall, where drivers get a clear view of downtown San Diego on the horizon. From Cabrillo National Monument, one can also see the rising Tijuana skyline in the distance. There is no way to ignore your neighbor completely — nor would it be wise.
In this case, one pressing issue merits discussion given its present impact on residents on both sides: housing costs.
San Diego is one of the most desirable cities on the entire planet. A constrained housing supply has translated into rising real estate prices that increasingly squeeze the working and middle classes. Still, restaurants, hospitals, stores and hotels need their personnel to live close enough. In absence of affordable options, thousands have relocated to Tijuana.
Rents and housing prices in Tijuana have long been denominated in dollars, given a steady flow of binational residents. The market increasingly caters to those earning dollars rather than workers and families earning pesos. For developers, building housing aimed not only at high-income locals in Tijuana, but also at binational professionals and displaced San Diego residents, is simply more profitable.
If you have crossed into Tijuana recently, you have likely noticed high rise towers rising across the city. Many are located near the border or major roads that lead directly to it. Prices have skyrocketed.
It is now common to see apartments of roughly 100 square meters, about 1,076 square feet, listed at $325 per square foot. That places a typical unit near $350,000 dollars. How many Tijuana residents can afford a $350,000 condominium when the average formal worker earns about 758 pesos a day, roughly $44?
This new housing supply is beginning to face challenges. Historically, new developments were quickly absorbed by high-income locals seeking real estate investments and San Diego professionals familiar with cross border life, often equipped with Sentri passes to expedite commuting.
But this past year, tariff uncertainty, shifting immigration rules and a weakened dollar have slowed momentum. Projects that sold out during presale now struggle to move forward, lacking buyers whose deposits typically finance their completion.
There is talk about a real estate bubble, but no such conditions exist. Most sold units have been paid in full, or in installments, and some through mortgages. The slowdown, however, is visible. Rent and sale signs, promotions and discounts are now common. Data is scarce, but anecdotal evidence suggests that some residents have returned to San Diego. Although many, tens of thousands, still live in Tijuana’s neighborhoods.
Is this trend irreversible? For now. But make no mistake. This new housing inventory will remain out of reach for most Tijuana residents. As border conditions stabilize and San Diego housing prices keep rising, a new wave of residents could likely relocate to Tijuana, especially into this new inventory.
In the past, it was often minimum wage-workers from San Diego who rented modest apartments or houses near the border. Increasingly, it is middle-class professionals and young families who can no longer afford to rent or buy in San Diego.
It is Tijuana, that neighbor so often portrayed negatively, that offers housing relief. Once again, underscoring how deeply interconnected San Diego and Tijuana will remain in the decades ahead.
Roberto Quijano is a corporate attorney in Baja California’s industrial sector, commentator for Síntesis TV and professor on Universidad Autónoma de Baja California’s law faculty.
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