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The world has lost more than $50bn worth of crude oil that has not been produced since the Iran war began nearly 50 days ago, according to analysts and Reuters calculations. The aftershock of the crisis is expected to be felt for months and even years to come, they say. Since the crisis began at the end of February, more than 500m barrels of crude oil and condensate have been knocked out of the global market, according to Kpler data – the largest energy supply disruption in modern history.
Those 500m barrels of oil lost to the market are equivalent to curtailing aviation demand globally for 10 weeks; no road travel by any vehicle globally for 11 days; or no oil for the global economy for five days, said Iain Mowat, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
It also nearly equals a month of oil demand in the US, according to Reuters estimates.
Smoke and flames rise at the site of airstrikes on an oil depot in Tehran earlier this year. Photograph: SASAN/Middle East Images/AFP/Getty Images ShareTrump has praised Israel, a US ally, in its war on Iran, saying in a social media post on Saturday night: “Whether people like Israel or not, they have proven to be a GREAT Ally of the United States of America.”
He said other allies had “shown their true colors in a moment of conflict and stress”.
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Welcome to our live coverage of events in the Middle East.
Iran’s top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said on Saturday that the recent talks with the US had made progress but gaps remained over nuclear issues and the strait of Hormuz. “We have had progress but there is still a big distance between us,” he told state media, referring to talks last weekend. “We made progress in the negotiations, but there are many gaps and some fundamental points remain.”
President Donald Trump said the US was having “very good conversations” with Tehran but warned against “blackmail” over the key shipping channel. He later praised war ally Israel in a social media post, adding that other allies had “shown their true colours in a moment of conflict and stress”.
It comes after Iranian officials reversed the reopening of the strait of Hormuz and reimposed restrictions on the vital shipping lane after the US said it would not end its blockade of Iranian ports.
A UK maritime agency reported that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ships had fired at a tanker as it attempted to pass through the strait on Saturday. Reuters reported an Indian-flagged vessel carrying crude oil had also been attacked while in the waterway.
Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya joint military command said on Saturday that Tehran had restored the strait to its “previous status” and was now “under strict management and control by the armed forces”.
Trump convened a White House Situation Room meeting on Saturday morning to discuss the renewed crisis according to reporting from Axios. A senior US official said that unless there is a breakthrough in peace talks, it appears that the war could reopen within days.
US president Donald Trump arrives at Trump National Golf Club in Sterling, Virginia, on Saturday. Photograph: Julia Demaree Nikhinson/APIn other developments:
After the initial talks between the US and Iran last weekend in Pakistan, the Iranian deputy foreign minister, Saeed Khatibzadeh, said a second date cannot be set until both sides “have agreed on the framework”.
Iran’s supreme national security council, the country’s highest decision-making body under the supreme leader, said it is reviewing “new proposals” put forward by the US, according to Iranian media.
Hezbollah has denied it was involved in the deadly attack against UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon, which killed a French soldier. A UN peacekeeper was killed and three others were injured after a patrol came under attack from “non-state actors”, the UN Interim Force in Lebanon said.
Israeli forces on Saturday began demolishing homes in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil and other border towns where Israeli troops are present, Lebanese state media reported.
The Israeli military killed two Unicef-contracted truck drivers at a water point in the northern Gaza Strip, forcing the UN agency to suspend its operations in the area, Unicef said.
Pope Leo XIV said that it is “not in my interest at all” to debate Trump about the Iran war, but that he would continue preaching the Gospel message of peace.
Trump left the White House Saturday afternoon to play golf, despite Iran’s re-closure of the strait of Hormuz in response to the US blockade of Iranian ports.
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