Few gave Sunderland much hope of avoiding relegation from the Premier League this season. And yet, they’ve reached the ‘magical’ 40-point mark by Matchday 29.
It wasn’t pretty. Sunderland had just 29.7% possession and managed only three shots at Elland Road; one was the decisive penalty, and another was the scruffy blocked effort that wouldn’t have done much damage had it not ultimately led to Ethan Ampadu’s handball for the spot-kick.
That was all Sunderland needed, however, as they held firm at the other end – even in the absence of first-choice goalkeeper Robin Roefs – to seal a 1-0 win away to fellow promoted side Leeds.
Any win in the Premier League is significant, but what was most notable about this one for Sunderland was the points total it left them with.
Although there isn’t officially a definitive point at which a side is guaranteed safety every season, historically the Premier League has pretty much treated the 40-point mark like this, and Tuesday’s win left the Black Cats on exactly that.
It’s an achievement that cannot be taken for granted considering the backdrop of their initial promotion last season.
For starters, Sunderland finished 24 points behind the Championship’s top two, including Tuesday’s hosts, Leeds. They went up via the play-offs, requiring stoppage-time winners in both the semi-finals and final.
Their points total was the joint lowest of any team promoted to the Premier League since Crystal Palace (72) in 2012-13, and so they were largely written off as soon as their promotion was confirmed.
Of course, influencing that perspective will have been the fact all three of the promoted teams from the prior two Premier League campaigns had gone straight back down.
If far better Championship sides couldn’t handle the step up, what hope did Sunderland have?
That question was rhetorical, but it is worth remembering their squad turnover has been considerable, with the graphic below highlighting that only three players who were owned by the club last season have played more than 40% of the team’s minutes in the Premier League this term.
Instead of relying on the core of the squad that got them promoted, Régis Le Bris and the club set about building a group that could handle the increase in standard.
The significant investment they made was a necessary gamble. And while there is an argument they’ve been somewhat fortunate, as they sit in the bottom three in the expected points table (below), clearly the gamble has paid off – or is on the verge of doing so.
Ithiel Piñero /Sunderland aren’t, of course, mathematically safe. The gap to West Ham in 18th is 15 points and the Hammers – resurgent before their weekend loss at Liverpool – have 10 games left to play. That gives them 30 points to play for.
However, realistically, Sunderland’s chances of going down now are almost null.
Not only would West Ham have to pick up points at a considerable rate, Sunderland’s form would need fall off a cliff and every other team between them and the bottom three would have to reach the 40-point mark as well. Obviously.
Despite 40 points typically being seen as enough to stay up, there is some historical precedent for teams being relegated with that many. But not much.
Only three teams have ever gone down at the end of a 38-game Premier League season with 40+ points.
Sunderland were actually one of those sides in 1996-97, as they went down with exactly 40 points. The following season, Bolton Wanderers were unable to stay up having also accumulated 40.
The only instance of a team being relegated with more than 40 points occurred in 2002-03, when West Ham left the top flight despite managing to earn 42 points.
With all that in mind, then, relegation for Sunderland this season looks incredibly unlikely, and so we turn our attention to the best-performing promoted teams in Premier League history.
Sunderland’s 40 points is the 14th best return through 29 matches by a promoted team. It may not sound outstanding, but we shouldn’t forget that the top flight has only become wealthier and stronger over the years, so theoretically tougher for the promoted sides. For instance, seven of the best promoted teams (through Matchday 29) were from the 2000-01 season or earlier.
Sunderland’s return is very good, then. In fact, only two promoted teams have managed more by Matchday 29 of a Premier League season since 2009-10 – Sheffield United took 44 in 2019-20, while Wolves accumulated 43 in 2018-19.
The achievements of Le Bris and Sunderland mustn’t be downplayed. That their efforts are very likely to be rewarded with the retention of their top-flight status is simply a positive for English football.
The struggles of the promoted teams in the past two seasons had become a cause for concern, spawning worries that the gulf between the Premier League and the Championship was now too great to bridge. Was this, all teams going straight back down, to be the new norm?
It may still be too early to actually answer that definitively, but survival is seemingly achievable with the Black Cats’ blueprint.
Enjoy this? Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
Promoted and Dismissed, Now Practically Safe: Sunderland Flip the Narrative by Reaching 40-Point Mark Opta Analyst.
Hence then, the article about promoted and dismissed now practically safe sunderland flip the narrative by reaching 40 point mark was published today ( ) and is available on The Analyst ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Promoted and Dismissed, Now Practically Safe: Sunderland Flip the Narrative by Reaching 40-Point Mark )
Also on site :