JD Vance, a man who styles himself as a devout Christian, made his deal with a devil a long time ago. When he saw that supporting Donald Trump – a man who he had once likened to Hitler – was his only route to political power, he jettisoned his principles and jumped on board the Trump train.
So far, it has worked out astonishingly well for him. He won his first elected office in January 2023 when he became the junior senator for Ohio, and 18 months later was Trump’s running mate in the 2024 election. Now, as Vice President, he is just one heartbeat from the presidency – an astonishing feat for a man who is 41 years old, especially one with almost no natural charisma.
But JD Vance is nowhere near done. With every fibre of his being, he shows how much he wants the big job. Trump is term-limited, and the Republican Party will need a new standard bearer at the next election.
Vance is determined that should be him, and is aware that his best, perhaps only, chance of being selected is by being the obvious heir to the current President and the Maga movement. He is also surely aware that while a sitting vice president can typically count on the endorsement of his boss, Trump is mercurial and loves to see his subordinates fight.
In his State of the Union speech last week, the President almost seemed to taunt his deputy, for whom he had very little in the way of praise, when he talked up Secretary of State Marco Rubio – another likely contender for the Republican 2028 nomination – as perhaps “the best ever” to hold the office.
Vance needs to be seen as the designated successor, but also not responsible for any of the failures of a second Trump term, or at least not the ones the core Maga base care about. That is a delicate needle for the Vice President to thread: he needs to look ultra-loyal, he needs to keep a high profile among Republican activists, but he needs not to be tied to the administration’s failures.
A large-scale war with Iran, then, is pretty much the number-one nightmare issue for someone like Vance. His boss very clearly wants this war – being the one who started it, after all, and without even bothering to wait for Congressional approval to make it legal. And Trump seems delighted by its early progress.
Vance, though, even more than Trump, has always styled himself as an isolationist. He has long been even more hostile than the President to American support for Ukraine, and when he was in the Senate he pushed hard for the US not to send either troops or money overseas. His stance has long been to leave the rest of the world to fend for itself. Reporting suggested that behind the scenes, Vance had tried to argue against a major offensive against Iran.
Trump has started the kind of conflict that will be incredibly difficult to stop. Iran has already retaliated against at least 10 Middle Eastern nations, and the US has suggested its citizens flee from almost the entire region. American troops are already being killed and injured and deescalation doesn’t seem to be on the cards.
Vance wants to be president, and he knows the war with Iran is already immensely unpopular, and will only become more unpopular with time. But he also knows his political future relies on slavish loyalty to Donald Trump, a man who cannot tolerate even slight disagreement, and demands fealty to the point of public embarrassment.
For now, the Vice President is dealing with this impossible dilemma by hiding from it. At the time of writing, he had barely been seen in public for five days, and had said nothing over that time either. That kind of extended silence from him is extremely unusual, and it cannot go on forever.
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When he speaks, he will surely stick closely to the President’s script, though he may try to send subtle signals of disagreement. Vance is trapped by his own political ambitions from doing anything else – but he must know that this could cost him his shot at the thing he most desires.
There is no winning move here, but he might be reminded of the old story of two men in the woods who encounter an angry bear out for their blood. In the tale, one fastens his laces before the deadly race begins. His companion notes this is futile – you can’t outrun a bear, he notes. The man replies that he doesn’t need to outrun the bear. He just needs to outrun his friend.
JD Vance doesn’t have any good options on Iran, but he can hope that Marco Rubio’s are worse. As Secretary of State, Rubio can’t hide from the Iran crisis nearly so much as the Vice President can. Perhaps that is Vance’s great hope in all of this. He can’t outrun the war, but he might be able to outrun Rubio.
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