We look ahead to Wednesday’s Premier League clash at St. James’ Park with our Newcastle vs Man Utd prediction and preview. Can Eddie Howe’s team get a much-needed result at home?
Newcastle vs Man Utd: The Key Stats
With a 43.5% win probability, Newcastle are the Opta supercomputer’s favourites in this game against Manchester United. However, Newcastle have lost three consecutive Premier League home games for the first time since February 2021. Michael Carrick has earned 23 points in nine Premier League games as Manchester United boss (across both spells). This is the joint-best start after nine games by any manager in the competition’s history.A son of the North East returns home on Wednesday, but Michael Carrick is not looking to do Newcastle United any favours.
Carrick has made a sensational start to his second stint in charge of Manchester United, winning six of his seven games since replacing Ruben Amorim, and drawing the other.
The former Middlesbrough coach has earned 23 points in nine Premier League games as Manchester United head coach (W7 D2) across both spells. This is the joint-best start after nine games by any manager in the competition’s history, alongside Ange Postecoglou at Tottenham Hotspur.
United’s resurgence under Carrick continued on Sunday, as they came from behind to beat Crystal Palace 2-1 at Old Trafford. While they benefited from a controversial refereeing decision to equalise via a Bruno Fernandes penalty, the in-form Benjamin Sesko once again struck the Red Devils’ winner.
United have now avoided defeat in all five Premier League games in which they have trailed since the turn of the year (W2 D3), their longest such run since January 2021 (also five). They have also recovered nine points from losing positions in the league this term, more than any other side.
They now head to St. James’ Park smelling blood.
Newcastle went down 3-2 at home to Everton on Saturday. They twice came from behind, but on each occasion conceded again within two minutes.
The Magpies have lost three consecutive Premier League home games for the first time since February 2021 under Steve Bruce. Indeed, Newcastle have conceded 23 home goals in the top flight this season, with only Wolves (30) and West Ham (27) shipping more.
While Newcastle have been able to get it right in the cups, progressing in the UEFA Champions League and the FA Cup, they sit 12th in the Premier League and do not want to leave themselves with too much to do in order to secure European qualification. As it stands heading into MD29, they are seven points back from seventh-place Brentford.
Newcastle have not lost more than three straight home games in the league since 2018 (five), and the good news is they have only lost two of their last 20 home evening kick-offs (19:00 or later) in the competition (W11 D7), going down 0-2 to West Ham in November 2024 and 2-3 to Liverpool in August 2025.
Eddie Howe will want St. James’ Park to be at its ferocious best, and he needs his team to step up to the mark, having called on his players to take more accountability in the wake of the defeat to Everton.
But this Man Utd team are a force to be reckoned with.
They have only lost one of their last 11 away Premier League games (W5 D5), a 1-2 defeat at Aston Villa in December. The Red Devils had only won one of their previous 11 on the road before this (D3 L7).
If Newcastle are to stop the rot after five defeats in their last six league outings, then they need their forwards to start firing.
Jacob Ramsey and Jacob Murphy got their goals against Everton, though both came via deflections, while Sandro Tonali was denied a stunning equaliser by Jordan Pickford’s spectacular stoppage-time save.
Nick Woltemade struggled to make an impact against the Toffees. Playing as a number 10, he had just 14 touches in almost an hour on the pitch, and failed to have a shot or create a chance.
Anthony Gordon has been played up front recently, but he also isn’t in great form domestically. While he has sparkled in Europe, the England international has scored just three goals from 38 shots in the Premier League this season (8% conversion rate), compared to 11 goals from 38 attempts across all other competitions (29% conversion).
One player who certainly is thriving in the league is Man Utd talisman Fernandes.
The playmaker has 13 Premier League assists this season, the most by a Man Utd player in a single campaign since Antonio Valencia in 2011-12 (also 13). Only David Beckham in 1999-00 (15) and Nani in 2010-11 (14) have ever provided more in a single campaign in the competition for the club.
Since his Premier League debut in February 2020, Fernandes has both scored and assisted in 18 separate matches in the competition, with only Mohamed Salah (27) doing so more. Indeed, only Wayne Rooney (35) have Ryan Giggs (22) have done this more times for Man Utd in the Premier League than Fernandes, with the Portuguese midfielder surpassing Beckham (17).
Newcastle vs Man Utd Head-to-Head
Newcastle have won their last three home Premier League matches against Man Utd, as many as in their previous 18 combined.
The Magpies last had a longer home league winning run against the Red Devils between 1915 and 1931 (10).
Man Utd are looking to record a Premier League double over Newcastle for the first time since the 2020-21 campaign; they won 1-0 at Old Trafford on Boxing Day thanks to a goal from Patrick Dorgu.
Howe has overseen 36% of Newcastle’s Premier League wins over Man Utd (4/11) – the last Magpies manager to win more league games against them was Joe Harvey (six between 1969 and 1973).
Newcastle vs Man Utd Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is backing Newcastle, despite the differing form of these two teams.
Newcastle’s win probability is 43.5%, while Man Utd came out victorious in 29.7% of the pre-match simulations.
The likelihood of a draw is 26.8%.
Newcastle vs Manchester United Predicted Lineups
Newcastle United: Nick Pope, Kieran Trippier, Malick Thiaw, Dan Burn, Lewis Hall, Sandro Tonali, Joe Willock, Joelinton, Anthony Elanga, Nick Woltemade, Anthony Gordon.
Manager: Eddie Howe
Manchester United: Senne Lammens, Diogo Dalot, Leny Yoro, Lisandro Martínez, Noussair Mazraoui, Kobbie Mainoo, Casemiro, Amad Diallo, Bruno Fernandes, Matheus Cunha, Bryan Mbeumo.
Head coach: Michael Carrick
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for each side.
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Newcastle vs Man Utd Prediction: Can Red Devils End Losing Run at St. James Park, or Will Eddie Howe Stop the Rot Opta Analyst.
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