Even before the U.S. detonated the first nuclear weapon in 1945, it has sought to limit the spread of nuclear weapons, recognizing that the more countries that have these capabilities, the more threatened the U.S. and global peace and security would be. That reality led the U.S. over the past 80 years to build up a global system of alliances, treaties, and legal norms that for the most part was successful in preventing the widespread proliferation of nuclear weapons. There are perhaps 50 countries in the world capable technically of building nuclear weapons, but only nine possess such weapons. They are the U.S., Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea. Indeed more countries started nuclear weapon programs and then eventually gave them up than ever built nuclear weapons. This massive nonproliferation success story is unlikely to survive America’s attacks against Iran, and the future effort to limit proliferation is as cloudy as the true justification of Trump’s bombing of Iran, and what happens after the bombing is over.
A number of global factors, including but not limited to the Trump administration’s disdain for U.S. allies and alliances in general, has fueled concern over the past several years that U.S. friends and allies—long convinced they did not need nuclear weapons of their own—may choose to go nuclear. Countries in Europe and in East Asia are openly discussing whether or not they need their own nuclear weapons in order to compensate for the loss of credible American security assurances.
This is the future that the U.S. has long sought to avoid. President John F. Kennedy predicted in the 1960s that as many as 25 countries might develop nuclear weapons in the coming decades. It was that dangerous reality that led the U.S. and the Soviet Union to negotiate the nuclear nonproliferation treaty allowing peaceful nuclear technology to be shared with states that agreed to remain non-nuclear. One reason the U.S. pursued this path was that every country that builds nuclear weapons is another potential threat to the United States and its allies, every arsenal is a potential target for theft, and every leader of a nuclear weapon state has to get every nuclear weapon decision right every single time.
The U.S. military is incredibly well funded and well trained. They are more than capable of destroying any target that the American president designates for destruction. But we should not mistake tactical success for a strategic win. In attempting to eliminate the alleged regional threat that Iran poses, Trump is inviting an even greater threat to the world. For there is simply no more dangerous world than one filled with nuclear weapons. As they spread, the danger of their use will continue to increase and the demand for the U.S. and others to take military action preemptively to prevent proliferation or to attack nuclear capabilities will also continue to grow. In this future, there will be deadly escalations and miscalculations—and eventually the evisceration of the long-held taboo against the use of nuclear weapons.
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