A bomb has gone off under British politics. And the fuse was lit by a blonde, working-class woman plumber with four greyhounds who relaxes by watching Coronation Street.
In an historic success, the Greens’ Hannah Spencer smashed Labour to claim her party’s first parliamentary by-election victory.
Added to this, she secured 41 per cent of the vote, 12 points more than Reform UK in second place, proving wrong pollsters and pundits who had anticipated a close contest.
The entire country will feel the result’s shockwaves, even Downing Street.
For months, Labour MPs have been unhappy with Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership, and this morning they didn’t hesitate to share their opinions, which included calls for tax increases and his resignation. The sometimes contradictory suggestions all fall under the heading of “real” Labour, though often reflect nothing more than the views of the individual. If Starmer has an answer to their recommendations, he is keeping remarkably quiet about it.
Spencer, a 34-year-old who is also a gas engineer and marathon runner as well as a plumber, secured victory in Manchester by connecting with two vital voter segments: the significant Muslim population, who remain critical of Labour due to Starmer’s initial position on Israel’s actions in Gaza, even after his subsequent acknowledgment of Palestinian statehood; and younger electors, who include a significant number of students and recent graduates. The Greens currently lead in the polls among younger voters across the UK.
Even on Thursday, the day of the election, Labour Cabinet ministers were expressing optimism privately and publicly. Despite abandoning hope of reclaiming the 50 per cent vote share Labour secured in the general election, the party believed its organisational infrastructure could secure victory for its candidate, with councillors in every corner of the constituency. Instead, at 25 per cent, Labour’s share of the vote has halved in 19 months, not only defeated in an area it has represented uninterruptedly for nearly a century, but trailing in third place.
Labour massively underestimated its opponents. The Greens ran an exceptional ground campaign and, crucially, got their vote out.
Leader of the Green Party of England and Wales, Zack Polanski, was highly visible both on the campaign trail and on Spencer’s witty and down-to-earth social media. When I visited the Green HQ last week – a chaotic house with a broken bike in the bath – I found cheerful volunteers from all over the country.
Polanski’s argument is that the Greens now have the means to inflict even more damage on 7 May in the local council elections. Yes, they’ll be thrilled by Spencer’s success. The possibility of winning in areas like Wakefield, Sunderland, Calderdale, and Barnsley will emerge this spring.
But replicating this intense level of resources in May or at the next general election is not feasible for the Greens. Moreover, while the party has also benefitted from Labour voters hitherto being more likely to tactically vote for them than the other way round, it’s not clear this would remain true when the stakes are higher and mean choosing the next occupant of Downing Street.
That’s the point Heidi Alexander, the Transport Secretary, made to LBC: “I do think the offer of the Green Party won’t survive contact with the national electorate. They’re a party that are soft on defence, soft on national security, soft on law and order. They’re proposing to legalise Class A drugs, for example.”
Reform will also be taking lessons from the campaign. At 29 per cent, candidate Matt Goodwin’s result was below the 38 per cent the party secured in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election last year. Goodwin holds extreme views, even by the standards of Reform.
The people of Gorton and Denton took a lesson from the Caerphilly Senedd by-election in Wales where the stop-Reform party was Plaid Cymru. Where there is a viable way to stop Reform that swerves Labour, people will choose it.
Now Labour MPs face a headache. Overnight, the narrative suggesting the party’s electoral struggles can be resolved by presenting voters with a Labour vs Reform choice was shattered.
From London to Bristol, Sheffield, Birmingham and even other parts of Manchester, there are seats which share a similar profile to Gorton and Denton: a high proportion of ethnic minorities alongside urban liberals from universities and recent graduates.
The 40 or so Labour MPs who pipped their Green rivals to second place in last year’s general election will be wondering: what next?
And it doesn’t stop there. In Gorton and Denton, the pro-Gaza candidate folded in behind the Greens. If replicated across the country – and it’s a big if – the Greens could expect to pick up a further 20 to 25 seats on top.
In that scenario, a whole raft of high-profile Labour seats are up for grabs, including Health Secretary Wes Streeting in Ilford North, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood in Birmingham Ladywood and safeguarding minister Jess Phillips, who represents Birmingham Yardley.
On Friday morning there was the predictable howl of outrage from the Labour left. Unite, Labour’s biggest trade union backer, and Unison, the UK’s largest trade union, both urged a tack to the left, as did some of its socialist MPs.
The right flank of the party is too weak to fight back because it’s so damaged by the fallout from the Peter Mandelson saga, the sacking of No 10 chief of staff Morgan McSweeney and the allegations the Labour Together group – which helped Starmer become party leader – paid for investigations into journalists.
There are some Labour winners. One is former deputy leader, Angela Rayner, who by challenging Starmer that the result must be a “wake-up call” is laying yet another paving stone on her return journey to Cabinet and the future party leadership.
Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, is the other. He worked hard for the campaign in the area even though he was prevented from running.
But this result is bigger than any of the individuals involved. In Gorton and Denton, with the Conservatives winning a record low share of the vote, parties other than Labour and the Conservatives shared the top two places for only the second time in a House of Commons by-election since 1945.
It also shows a simple truth of British politics: change can’t come quick enough. The insurgent upstarts in Reform and the Greens are in the ascendancy. The electorate is signalling to Starmer that it’s not only sick of him, but willing to give smaller anti-establishment parties a whirl.
Spencer used her victory speech to apologise to the customers with plumbing problems she’ll have to let down now she’s an MP. No doubt they’ll forgive her.
She told me last week if she won she was looking forward to visiting the Westminster branch of Greggs. She won’t be short of supporters offering to buy her a pasty.
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