Barcelona’s latest overtake of Real Madrid is already the 16th change at the top of La Liga in 2025-26. Can either rival pull away from the other?
It’s Barcelona who lead La Liga once again in what has proved to be a topsy-turvy title race in Spain.
Real Madrid’s surprise defeat at Osasuna on Saturday gave their rivals the chance to leapfrog them in the standings, and Barcelona made no mistake, defeating Levante 3-0 at Camp Nou a day later.
It was the 16th time this season that the lead at the top of La Liga had changed hands at the end of a day, with Barcelona – as of 24 February – now spending more days in first place (94) than their rivals Madrid (92).
In truth, not that anyone would have expected any different, it’s been a title race between the two rivals all season.
Outside of the two giants, only Villarreal (6), Real Betis (1) and Rayo Vallecano (1) have spent a day top of La Liga in 2025-26, with the last day that any team other than the Clásico rivals ended top of the standings coming on 29 August, when Villarreal were in first place after two matchdays.
Barcelona won the 2024-25 title, with Hansi Flick’s side finishing four points ahead of arch rivals Real Madrid, but no team have retained the crown since Barcelona themselves in 2018-19.
Real Madrid have alternated between first and second place over the last six seasons. If that pattern continues in 2025-26, they will lift their 37th Spanish top-flight title, despite moving onto their second manager of the campaign following the appointment of Álvaro Arbeloa after Xabi Alonso was sacked only 34 games (all competitions) into his reign.
With a nine-point gap opened up between Madrid in second and Villarreal in third, it looks unlikely we’ll see another team make a late title challenge. The last time a side other than Barça or Real Madrid won La Liga was back in 2020-21, when Diego Simeone’s Atlético Madrid lifted the trophy. No team other than those three have won La Liga across any of the last 21 seasons, with Valencia the last to do it in 2003-04.
Much of Barcelona’s success this season has been down to their ability to come from behind in games. They’ve already won 18 points from losing positions, having been behind at some point in 10 of their 25 matches in La Liga. Madrid, who have been in a losing position in six of their games, have won just five points from those matches.
Real Madrid had become the Opta supercomputer’s title favourites for the first time since early December, but their shock weekend defeat has turned that projection around.
Barcelona are now favourites to regain their crown as La Liga champions, with the Opta supercomputer seeing them go on to win the title in 58.1% of the latest season simulations. Real Madrid are now at 41.8%, but that could swing back in their favour again between now and the end of the campaign.
The two sides meet in El Clásico on Matchday 35 across the weekend of 9-10 May, with that clash at Camp Nou potentially being the decider in the title race. With nine games and 27 points up for grabs between now and then, it’s all to play for.
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Barcelona or Real Madrid? Opta Supercomputer Predictions for La Liga’s Topsy-Turvy Title Battle Opta Analyst.
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