A lengthy journey for the first leg of their UEFA Champions League play-off awaits Eddie Howe’s side. We look ahead to Wednesday’s knockout phase play-off first-leg clash with our Qarabag vs Newcastle prediction and preview.
Qarabag vs Newcastle: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer backs an away win with Newcastle United triumphing in 63.6% of pre-match simulations for the first leg. Newcastle’s journey of 2,529 miles to Qarabag will be the longest ever distance travelled by an English team for a Champions League away match. Anthony Gordon or Harvey Barnes have collectively been involved in 76% of Newcastle’s goals in this season’s competition.Newcastle United must overcome Qarabag to reach the UEFA Champions League last-16 stage as Eddie Howe’s side embark on a record-breaking journey for Tuesday’s first leg.
The Magpies must fight through the play-off stage after finishing 12th in the 36-team league phase, following a 1-1 draw away at Paris Saint-Germain last time out in Europe.
Qarabag finished 22nd in the table to stay alive in the competition, with this set to be the first knockout-stage game for either team in the Champions League. It is also the only one of this season’s eight play-off round ties with both clubs playing their first such match.
For the first clash of the two-legged knockout tie, Newcastle must cover 2,529 miles to reach Qarabag’s home stadium in Baku, the longest ever distance travelled by an English team for a Champions League away match.
Although the journey appears intimidating, Qarabag’s defensive record may be more appealing to Newcastle. They have conceded 2+ goals in each of their last six Champions League games, while only Kairat (22) – who finished bottom of the league phase – shipped more than the Azerbaijani side (21) in this edition.
Gurban Gurbanov’s side were hammered 6-0 by Liverpool at Anfield in their last European outing, but the hosts may fancy their chances here. Qarabag overcame Copenhagen and Eintracht Frankfurt in the league phase on home soil, while also managing a 2-2 draw with Chelsea.
However, the 3-2 triumph against Eintracht is Qarabag’s only win in their last six European outings (D1 L4). Gurbanov may feel they have regressed after starting with back-to-back victories over Benfica and Copenhagen, having also battled through three two-legged ties in the qualifying rounds.
Central to any Qarabag hopes of a result may be forward Camilo Durán, who has netted four goals in the competition this season. Only Jackson Martínez (7 in 2014-15 for Porto) and Radamel Falcao (5 in 2016-17 for Monaco) have scored more in a single edition among Colombian players.
Newcastle will head into this tie expecting to progress. They won four games in the league phase, although only one of those came away from home when they thrashed Union Saint-Gilloise 4-0 in October.
Another win here would see Howe equal the record for the joint-most victories by an English manager in a single Champions League edition. The Newcastle boss would join both Bobby Robson (in 2002-03, also with the Magpies) and Graham Potter (in 2022-23 with Chelsea) as the only such coaches to do so.
Howe may be concerned by Newcastle’s overreliance on two attackers, however. Anthony Gordon or Harvey Barnes have either scored or assisted 76% of Newcastle’s goals in the Champions League this season (13/17).
Gordon has six goals and two assists, including one against Benfica for Barnes, who has found the net five times and created one.
Newcastle’s strikers are yet to deliver – Yoane Wissa has scored just once in three European appearances, with Nick Woltemade matching that meagre tally across eight outings.
Further back, Bruno Guimarães has pulled the strings by making 13 defensive line-breaking passes in this season’s edition, at least twice as many as any other Newcastle player (6 by Sandro Tonali and Kieran Trippier). Joshua Kimmich (16) and Joey Veerman (15) were the only players overall who made more than the Brazilian in the league phase.
However, Guimarães is now facing a two-month spell on the sidelines due to a hamstring injury. Tonali stepped up in the midfielder’s absence in Newcastle’s last outing, scoring twice in a 3-1 comeback victory over 10-man Aston Villa in the FA Cup fourth round on Saturday.
Tino Livramento and Fabian Schär are Newcastle’s other confirmed absentees, while Howe waits for news on the respective recoveries of Joelinton and Lewis Miley. Wissa’s knock is also being assessed after he missed the win at Villa Park.
As for Qarabag’s team news, goalkeeper Mateusz Kochalski sat out of Saturday’s 1-0 win over Mil-Mugan, with Gurbanov also sweating over the fitness of Leandro Andrade after he limped off in that game.
Qarabag vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
This will be the 10th European meeting between sides from Azerbaijan and England (all involving Qarabag), with the English teams unbeaten and winning on eight occasions (D1).
Howe may hope to just escape this trip unscathed, too, given Qarabag’s woeful record on the road against fellow Premier League teams.
Qarabag have lost all five of their European away matches against English sides by an aggregate score of 19-1.
Their two such fixtures in the Champions League have both been 6-0 defeats, against Chelsea in 2017 and Liverpool last month.
Qarabag vs Newcastle Prediction
Newcastle hold a strong 89% chance of progressing to the last-16 stage, and are heavy favourites to take a lead back to England.
Howe’s side have a 63.6% chance of victory in the first leg from the 10,000 pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
Qarabag have just a 15.8% likelihood of winning the opening meeting, with the draw accounting for the rest of scenarios in 20.6%.
Qarabag vs Newcastle Predicted Lineups
Qarabag: Mateusz Kochalski, Matheus Silva, Bahlul Mustafazada, Kevin Medina, Elvin Cafarquliyev, Pedro Bicalho, Marko Jankovic, Joni Montiel, Leandro Andrade, Abdellah Zoubir, Camilo Durán.
Head Coach: Gurban Gurbanov
Newcastle: Nick Pope, Kieran Trippier, Malick Thiaw, Dan Burn, Lewis Hall, Sandro Tonali, Joe Willock, Jacob Ramsey, Anthony Elanga, Anthony Gordon, Nick Woltemade.
Head Coach: Eddie Howe
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
Qarabag vs Newcastle Prediction: Can Magpies Handle Record-Breaking Champions League Trip? Opta Analyst.
Hence then, the article about qarabag vs newcastle prediction can magpies handle record breaking champions league trip was published today ( ) and is available on The Analyst ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Qarabag vs Newcastle Prediction: Can Magpies Handle Record-Breaking Champions League Trip? )
Also on site :