These two teams head into Round 2 of the 2026 Six Nations on the back of vastly different performances. We look ahead to this clash in Dublin with our Ireland vs Italy prediction and preview.
Ireland suffered their heaviest Six Nations defeat in well over a decade at the hands of France last week, while Italy picked up their first Round 1 win since 2013 (vs France). Incidentally, that was also the only year they’ve defeated Ireland in the competition (22-15 in Rome).
The Azzurri will be looking to make it two from two for the very first time in the Championship. However, the precedent here is very much against them. Ireland have won each of their previous 13 Six Nations clashes with Italy in Dublin, the only team against whom they boast a 100% home win rate.
It’s fair to say that this is a clash between two sides on different trajectories, though. Defeat to France means Ireland have now lost consecutive games by double-digit margins for the first time since 2012, when they suffered back-to-back drubbings against the All Blacks in New Zealand.
While Andy Farrell’s side are in somewhat of a transitionary period, not helped by injuries, Italy have now won two of their last three Tests, including an impressive victory against Australia last November. Any lingering doubts about their ability to compete at this level have largely been dispelled, and they’re far from the ‘easy win’ that many considered them to be just a short few years ago.
Where the Game Will Be Won
Ireland and Italy’s contrasting styles in Round 1 were nearly as evident as their different results. Probably due to the treacherous conditions in Rome last Saturday, less than 2% of Italy’s attacking phases against Scotland saw the ball move beyond the first receiver, while not even one went beyond the second.
Ireland, on the other hand, played 22% of their attacks beyond the first receiver, with a round-high 14% making it past the second.
Should Ireland look to exploit the wide channels as they attempted last week, generating quick ball for their backline will be pivotal. That’s one area they did excel in during their loss to France. They completed 63% of their rucks in three seconds or fewer, the highest rate of any side across the opening round, while Italy were the only team to complete fewer than half of their rucks in that time (47%).
One silver lining from the dark cloud cast by that defeat in Paris was Ireland’s control at set-pieces. After some troubling lineout issues in the autumn, Ireland lost just one of their 17 throws against France and won 4/4 scrums.
However, they didn’t win possession from any of France’s 15 lineouts, while Italy stole four of Scotland’s, the most of any team across the opening round. Should the Azzurri manage to bring any of Ireland’s lineout frailties back, it could give them a solid platform to work from.
Ireland vs Italy Fantasy Picks
Robert Baloucoune is set for his first Ireland appearance in over three years, and his first ever in the Six Nations. His debut for Ireland in 2022 saw him catch the eye immediately, gaining 159 metres and registering five line breaks in addition to nabbing a try against the USA. If Ireland aim to get the ball as wide as they did against France, he could well have a Six Nations debut to remember.
One man with plenty of Six Nations pedigree already is 2024 Player of the Championship, and 2025 nominee Tommaso Menoncello. He was at the heart of Italy’s attack in Round 1. The prodigious centre gained 100+ metres for the first time in the competition, making 112 in total from just five carries, and scored the try that helped extend Italy’s lead to 12 points early on.
The respective packs also feature plenty of potential points scorers. Italian brothers Niccolo (26) and Lorenzo (19) Cannone completed the most tackles of any players in Round 1, with teammates Manuel Zuliani (19), Andrea Zambonin (18) and Simone Ferrari (18) rounding out the top five, offering some solid budget-friendly picks.
A more luxurious selection would be Ireland’s Dan Sheehan, who’s the top try-scoring forward in Six Nations history (13). Sheehan has five tries across his last two games against Italy, including a final-round hat-trick in Rome last year. It was just the second treble by a forward in the Six Nations era, after CJ Stander, also for Ireland against Italy in 2017.
CJ Stander has since retired, but fellow back-rower Nick Timoney represents a significant try-scoring threat from Ireland’s bench and a tempting supersub option. The Ulster flanker has scored six tries across just seven caps for his country, including a tidy finish after coming on against France last week.
Ireland vs Italy Prediction
The Opta supercomputer has Ireland as heavy favourites to defeat Italy in this one. Andy Farrell’s side have a 84.6% chance of getting their Championship back on track with a win on home soil, while Italy have a 14.5% shot at claiming a first Six Nations win in the Irish capital.
The predicted scoreline of 35-18 would be much more one-sided than Ireland’s narrow 22-17 win in Rome last year and would represent an immediate return to form after last week’s crushing disappointment.
Ireland vs Italy Lineups
Ireland: 15 Jamie Osborne, 14 Robert Baloucoune, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Stuart McCloskey, 11 James Lowe, 10 Sam Prendergast, 9 Craig Casey, 1 Jeremy Loughman, 2 Dan Sheehan, 3 Thomas Clarkson, 4 Joe McCarthy, 5 James Ryan, 6 Cormac Izuchukwu, 7 Caelan Doris (c), 8 Jack Conan.
Replacements: 16 Ronan Kelleher, 17 Tom O’Toole, 18 Tadhg Furlong, 19 Edwin Edogbo, 20 Tadhg Beirne, 21 Nick Timoney, 22 Jamison Gibson-Park, 23 Jack Crowley.
Italy: 15 Lorenzo Pani, 14 Louis Lynagh, 13 Tommaso Menoncello, 12 Leonardo Marin, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Alessandro Fusco, 1 Danilo Fischetti, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 3 Simone Ferrari, 4 Niccolo Cannone, 5 Andrea Zambonin, 6 Michele Lamaro (c), 7 Manuel Zuliani, 8 Lorenzo Cannone.
Replacements: 16 Tomasso di Bartolomeo, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Muhamed Hasa, 19 Federico Ruzza, 20 Riccardo Favretto, 21 David Odiase, 22 Alessandro Garbisi, 23 Paolo Odogwu.
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Ireland vs Italy Prediction: Six Nations 2026 Preview Opta Analyst.
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