A newly-appointed Board of Peace will meet for the first time next week to discuss the Trump administration’s $30 billion (£22bn) vision for a ‘New Gaza’ that would transform the devastated Strip.
The masterplan unveiled by Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, would see a landscape of rubble give way to new homes, schools and infrastructure. Coastal tent cities for refugees would be replaced by sparkling tourist hotels. With generous investment in industry and transport, Gaza’s GDP could reach $10b inside a decade, Kushner predicted.
But the grand vision is increasingly at odds with facts on the ground, as well as the agendas of both sides in one of the world’s longest-running and most intractable conflicts.
The White House announced last month that Trump’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza had entered phase two, but it is still scrambling to assemble the foundations.
Violence has continued throughout the US-brokered ceasefire reached in October. More than 500 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli strikes since then, according to local health authorities, as Hamas has largely regained control of the half of Gaza that Israeli forces have withdrawn from.
Beyond the yellow line that marks Israeli-occupied territory, soldiers have continued to demolish Hamas tunnels and buildings Israel claims are enemy assets. Israel-backed anti-Hamas militias are gaining power in the southern Rafah region.
This week, Israeli media reports, citing military briefings, suggested a new offensive is imminent to disarm Hamas, which could include large-scale operations in the al-Mawasi tent city and the refugee camps of central Gaza. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly seeking US approval to resume high-intensity warfare.
Netanyahu is under political pressure to maintain a hard line with an election imminent, said Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East analyst at Chatham House.
“In an election year, anything that won’t end in disarming Hamas – after he promised at the beginning of the war to completely dismantle Hamas – is something he can’t afford,” he said.
Kobi Michael, a military analyst at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies and the Misgav Institute, believes an offensive is likely with no other forces willing or able to disarm Hamas, a key component of Trump’s 20-point plan, albeit one tied to further negotiations.
The Trump administration is proposing a dramatic transformation of the devastated Gaza Strip (Photo: Khalil Ramzi Alkahlut/Anadolu/Getty)This would not seek to disarm every gunman in Gaza, he said, but aim for “full destruction of Hamas’ tunnel network, all of their heavy weapons, rockets and missiles, all of their manufacturing and weapons industry”, as well as the expulsion of Hamas commanders.
Hamas has maintained that disarmament must be linked to a process to end Israel’s occupation, and the militant group and de facto government of Gaza appears to have hardened its position as it has regained control of domestic affairs and rebuilt its weaponry – including through unexploded Israeli munitions littered across the Strip.
Veteran Palestinian political journalist Daoud Kuttab said that after surviving a ferocious Israeli assault over two years, Hamas would consider it “ridiculous” to give up its arms for nothing in return, which would mean “physical and political suicide”.
The group is seeking to be legitimised and play a part in the political process that decides Gaza’s future, he added.
The US has sought to bridge the divide, with a reported compromise that could see Hamas give up “heavy” weapons but keep its arsenal of small arms in the short-term, pending further negotiations.
Hamas forces have regained control in half of Gaza (Photo : Doaa Albaz/Anadolu/ Getty)The White House will seek to restrain its ally from moves that could undermine the peace plan, but may struggle to keep it moving forward, said Mick Muroy, who served as a senior US defence official during Trump’s first term and led humanitarian operations in Gaza during the war.
“The US can and will put a lot of pressure on Israel to continue with the ceasefire,” he said. “Hamas will then have to make a decision. Disarm or keep Gaza is the current state it’s in.”
Amid the standoff, donor countries are loathed to provide the billions of dollars required to kick-start the plan and any rebuild.
Wealthy Gulf states that sit on the Board of Peace are expected to make significant contributions, but a source close to the planning told Reuters that potential donors intend to support reconstruction “within demilitarized places, and not to throw the money into another war zone”.
Last month, Trump’s team announced the composition of a 15-person “apolitical” government of Palestinian technocrats to oversee the transition, led by businessman Ali Shaath.
But Israel has not yet allowed members to enter Gaza, or advance plans for a headquarters, and has even baulked at the colour of the group’s logo, claiming it is too similar to that of the Palestinian Authority, which exercises limited self-government in the occupied West Bank.
Donald Trump signing the charter for his new “Board of Peace” at Davos on 22 January, 2026 (Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty)The National Committee for the Administration of Gaza could play an important role in the Strip, but not if it is effectively rendered impotent, said Mekelberg.
“They need to be allowed to work, to have the resources, and the authority to operate,” he said. “It will mean very little if they don’t have the budget or the power to operate.”
The US is also struggling to recruit countries to supply troops for the peacekeeping force stipulated by Trump’s plan.
Israel has rejected the participation of potential contributors Turkey and Qatar, which it regards as hostile, and countries such as Indonesia have suggested they could offer medics and engineers, rather than combat troops.
King Abdullah II of Jordan said in October that no country wants to risk being involved in firefights with Palestinian militants. “What is the mandate of security forces inside of Gaza? And we hope that it is peacekeeping, because if it’s peace enforcing, nobody will want to touch that,” he told the BBC.
Many countries, including the UK, are also skeptical of Trump’s Board of Peace, and have declined membership for now, fearful that it could become a shadow UN that undermines existing international institutions, with Trump enjoying sweeping powers over it.
Analysts have also raised concerns over the potential for corruption, with a lack of transparency over funding and policymaking and countries encouraged to pay $1bn for permanent membership.
“The mixture of private investment funds with American power and geopolitics, combined with likely opaque decision-making and financial expenditure is a recipe for kleptocratic oligarchy,” wrote Hugh Lovatt of the European Council of Foreign Relations last month.
Perhaps equally important, the New Gaza plan lacks buy-in from the population of Gaza that would give it legitimacy, Palestinian commentators have noted.
“Most glaring in Trump’s plan for Gaza is the absence of any discussion of Palestinian sovereignty,” said Yara Hawari, co-director of Palestinian think tank Al-Shabaka. “Palestinians have been excluded from any meaningful decision-making, effectively stripping Gaza’s population of political agency and once again subordinating them to external colonial control.”
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