A war to topple the Iranian regime could result in a dangerous security vacuum that increases militant threats to the UK, according to counter-terror and regional security specialists.
Donald Trump has ordered a build-up of US military assets around Iran in preparation for a possible strike, if diplomacy with Tehran fails. The aims and scope of such an attack remain unclear.
Hawkish elements of the Trump administration and the Israeli government have called for a campaign to bring down the regime, following its bloody crackdown on recent protests. Trump also publicly discussed regime change before bombing Iranian nuclear sites last year.
Sir Keir Starmer has suggested his Government could support US strikes against Iran, with some Labour MPs calling for “targeted military action“.
However, this could lead to retaliation or threats far from Iran’s borders.
Activating foreign agents
A military campaign to bring down supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s government is fraught with risks of “blowback” against the US and its allies, according to security analysts.
Several of those consulted by The i Paper cited the precedent of Iraq. The US-led invasion of 2003 removed dictator Saddam Hussein but led to the rise of Isis, which has since carried out dozens of deadly terror attacks around the world.
The instability also allowed powerful Iran-backed militias to take root across the country.
Colin Clarke, a senior researcher at International Centre for Counter-Terrorism and Soufan Group think-tanks, said that Iran could “seek to activate its assets globally” in the event of a US attack.
The US has increased its military presence in the Middle East (Photo: Anadolu/Getty)Iran is suspected of hundreds of covert operations against Western and Israeli targets around the world since the clerics seized power after the 1979 Islamic revolution.
The UK has increasingly been a target of such plots, including an attack on Iranian dissident journalists in London in 2022, and a thwarted attack against the Israeli embassy in the capital last year.
A parliamentary committee reported a “significant increase” in the threat from Iran last year, including kidnapping and assassination. The Government recently placed all Iranian state agencies on the enhanced tier of the Foreign Influence Registration Scheme to allow for closer scrutiny.
Alistair Burt, a former Middle East minister, believes an Iranian regime under existential threat could be motivated to use its agents abroad “including the UK, to take revenge action either against existing dissident Iranians being sheltered here, or the UK itself”.
A worrying terror haven
Regime collapse could be even more dangerous to the West than the current leadership, said Clarke.
“The problem with regime change is the unexpected, the second and third order effects,” he added. “Before the US invaded Iraq, there was no al-Qaeda in Iraq. After the invasion, [Abu Musab] al-Zarqawi was able to build this organisation that ultimately morphed into Isis.”
“Iran could fracture and parts of its territory could become hospitable for a range of terrorist groups, including Sunni jihadist groups,” he said.
Police forensic officers search an address in Greater Manchester in May 2025, where four Iranian nationals were arrested on suspicion of terror offences (Photo: Ryan Jenkinson/Getty)A weakened Iran could also allow militant groups in neighbouring Pakistan to expand and threaten the West, according to Eldar Mamedov, who served as an adviser on Iran in the European Parliament.
“The destabilisation or disintegration of a state like Iran would create precisely the lawless vacuum they would exploit to establish a lasting base,” he pointed out in a recent article, citing groups such as the Balochistan Liberation Army, an ethnic separatist outfit banned by the UK, among other countries, as a terror organisation.
“Such a safe haven would enable terrorists to cross borders beyond Pakistan, potentially inspiring or enabling attacks against the US and its partners,” Mamedov wrote.
Commander Dominic Murphy, the acting senior national co-ordinator of counter-terrorism at the Met Police, said his forces were closely monitoring potential threats that could arise from the region.
“Counter Terrorism Policing works closely with our counterparts across the globe to monitor and assess potential threats to the UK. Right now, this includes any new or emerging threats emanating from events linked to the situation in the Middle East,” he told The i Paper.
Murphy added: “We’re acutely aware of the potential galvanising effect that any global instability can have on individuals closer to home, and we’re working with partners to assess the wider threat picture.”
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