BRUSSELS – A small diplomatic opening appeared in London last week when European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said that the EU was “ready to engage with an open mind” on closer trade ties with the UK, including a customs union.
In Westminster, it was seized upon as evidence that the door to a long-taboo Brexit rethink might finally be creaking open.
While the UK is unlikely to rejoin the European Union for the foreseeable future, a customs union could mean a removal of tariffs and other trade barriers on goods and services.
Senior politicians, insiders and diplomats in the EU suggested the ball was now in Britain’s court to come up with a plan. Andreas Schieder, an Austrian MEP involved in earlier post-Brexit legislation, told The i Paper that while many in the EU would be enthusiastic about closer ties, “it’s up to the UK to decide what it wants in its relationship with the EU”.
David Henig, director of the UK Trade Policy Project, said the commission’s door was open but “that doesn’t mean they will give you what you want”.
He warned that creating a customs union would be complex, criticising much of the debate as “simplistic”, driven by politicians who overestimate the UK’s leverage.
One EU diplomat called the recent flurry of discussion over a customs union “internal Labour politics working themselves out”.
Dombrovskis, who is also the EU’s economy commissioner, was careful in his wording. Asked whether Brussels would welcome discussions, he did not signal flexibility on the EU’s long-standing red lines and reiterated that deeper integration comes with obligations – and cannot involve cherry-picking.
That distinction matters. As one EU official put it privately, “being open to engagement is not the same as negotiating”. At present, there are no talks on the UK joining a customs union, bespoke or otherwise, in part because the UK Government has explicitly ruled it out.
Sir Keir Starmer has repeatedly said that rejoining the customs union or the single market would breach Labour’s 2024 manifesto commitments. Downing Street reaffirmed those red lines within hours of Dombrovskis’s comments. Without a formal change in UK policy, Brussels has nothing to respond to.
Yet the noise inside Labour has undeniably grown. Senior figures, including Cabinet ministers and influential backbenchers, have openly floated the idea in recent weeks. Polling suggests strong support among Labour voters. And EU figures, including several MEPs, have said they would welcome a closer UK-EU relationship if Britain wanted one. “Given the circumstances to me, it’s clear that we need to have as strong and profound a relationship as possible,” said Schieder, the MEP.
Starmer said last month that he wanted to “go further” in aligning with the EU’s single market where it is “in our national interest”. Agreements for closer links on agriculture and electricity are currently being finalised.
Labour is aware that Brexit is increasingly viewed by Britons as a mistake, with recent analysis indicating that a substantial majority would vote Remain if the referendum were held today.
Fabian Zuleeg, chief executive of non-profit think-tank the European Policy Centre, said the debate is being driven primarily by internal Labour dynamics, and that we need to look for “quiet, behind-the-scenes work, not public trial balloons” to prove the move is serious.
A customs union would not be a technical tweak to smooth trade. It would require the UK to align its external tariffs with the EU’s, effectively giving up an independent trade policy. Existing UK trade deals with countries such as the US, India and Australia would have to be revisited or scrapped.
Any bespoke arrangement would need to be negotiated from scratch and approved unanimously by all 27 EU member states – a process likely to take years.
Nor would it automatically eliminate border checks, VAT procedures or regulatory inspections without much deeper alignment. As EU officials repeatedly stress, the customs union is not a standalone fix but part of a wider legal and political architecture.
There is also a broader political reality shaping EU thinking: uncertainty about Britain’s future direction. The prospect of a Reform-led government under Nigel Farage, openly hostile to the EU and prone to unilateralism, looms large in Brussels. “Any prospect of Farage having his hands on any kind of power or government would make us think twice – and should make every Brit think twice,” warns Austrian MEP Schieder.
That risk makes EU capitals wary of offering concessions or embarking on ambitious new frameworks that could be torn up after the next election.
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