Italy and Scotland get their 2026 Six Nations campaigns underway, with both sides no doubt keen to continue their upward trajectory. Who will come out on top? Find out more in our Italy vs Scotland prediction.
Once a Wooden Spoon decider, Italy vs Scotland is now a fixture between two teams with far higher hopes than merely avoiding the unwanted accolade. Who will come out on top in Rome in Round 1?
Scotland may have a comfortable winning record against the Italians, winning 18 of their 26 meetings, but the Azzurri have found the Scots easier to beat than any other side in the history of the Championship. Their tally of eight victories against Scotland is the same as they have against the four other nations combined.
While Scotland have been dominant in this fixture in recent years, they have been collateral damage in Italy’s resurgence over the last few campaigns, suffering defeat on their last trip to Rome in 2024.
That loss seemed to knock Scotland off their stride in the Championship, with it marking the start of an ongoing four-game losing run on the road. Gregor Townsend’s side had won on seven of 10 away days immediately before that fixture.
A source of optimism for Scotland, though, is their ability to get out of the blocks early in the Six Nations. Townsend’s side have won their opening fixture in each of the last five editions, the best current streak of any team. In fact, only Ireland have recorded a longer such streak in the Men’s Six Nations (W7, 2005-11).
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This fixture is between the top carriers and the top tacklers from last year’s edition. Scotland ran with the ball more often than any other team (764) and Italy made the most hits in defence (839) in 2025.
With that in mind, the battle for the gainline, both in attack and defence, will be key.
For all their carrying, Scotland had the lowest dominant carry rate (24%) in the Championship in 2025, while their gainline success rate of 53% was the second lowest, after bottom side Wales (49%).
Italy fared only slightly better than Scotland in both areas, ranking fifth for dominant carry rate (27%) and fourth for gainline success (57%). But in defence they recorded the best tackle dominance, with 8% of their hits considered ‘dominant’. Additionally, only England (34%) and Ireland (33%) stopped their opponents from reaching the gainline more often than Italy (27%).
Looking at their gainline numbers in very basic terms, Italy were one of three teams to average more metres over the gainline per carry than they conceded, making 3.7 metres per carry and conceding 3.3 metres on average.
Scotland had the worst differential, suggesting Italy might fancy their chances of winning that particular battle in Rome.
Of course, Scotland fans might point to the fact that they prefer to avoid contact altogether; their Championship-high tally of 154 defenders beaten from last year is testament to that.
However, only England (25%) had a higher tackle evasion rate than the Azzurri (23%), who will fancy themselves to cause the Scottish defence plenty of problems.
Italy vs Scotland Fantasy Picks
Both these sides have plenty of great fantasy options across the pitch, so tuck in.
The 2024 Six Nations Player of the Championship, Tommaso Menoncello, contributes in attack and defence. Last season he won the most turnovers (6) and made the most tackles (59) of any back.
Going forward, he ranked fourth for defenders beaten (20), gained the most metres of any centre (216) and crossed for two tries. It is hard to go wrong with the Toulouse-bound star.
Scotland’s options are priced high, but with Townsend’s surprise matchday squad there are some bargains to be had. Tom Jordan plays full-back but is listed as a centre and could pick up plenty of points from deep.
Since his debut in November 2024, Jordan averages 4.2 defenders beaten per 80 minutes – only three Six Nations-eligible players have a better rate (400+ mins played).
In the same dataset, he ranks in the top 10 for metres gained per 80 (63), and if you look at just his three starts at full-back he gains 94 metres on average and beats six defenders per match.
Italy vs Scotland Prediction
The Opta supercomputer gives Scotland a 75% chance of victory in Rome as both sides look to get their Championship off to a winning start.
The models thinks the visitors will be comfortable victors, securing a 32-16 win in Rome. That is almost the exact same scoreline as when the sides met at Murrayfield last year (31-19).
Italy vs Scotland Lineups
Italy: 15 Leonardo Marin, 14 Louis Lynagh, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Alessandro Fusco; 1 Danilo Fischetti, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 3 Simone Ferrari, 4 Niccolo Cannone, 5 Andrea Zambonin, 6 Michele Lamaro, 7 Manuel Zuliani, 8 Lorenzo Cannone
Replacements: 16 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Muhamed Hasa, 19 Federico Ruzza, 20 Riccardo Favretto, 21 Alessandro Garbisi, 22 Giacomo Da Re, 23 Lorenzo Pani
Scotland: 15 Tom Jordan, 14 Kyle Steyn, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Sione Tuipulotu (c), 11 Jamie Dobie, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ben White; 1 Pierre Schoeman, 2 Ewan Ashman, 3 Zander Fagerson,4 Scott Cummings, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 6 Matt Fagerson,7 Rory Darge, 8 Jack Dempsey
Replacements: 16 George Turner, 17 Nathan McBeth, 18 Elliot Millar-Mills, 19 Max Williamson, 20 Gregor Brown, 21 George Horne, 22 Adam Hastings, 23 Darcy Graham
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Italy vs Scotland Prediction: Six Nations 2026 Preview Opta Analyst.
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